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55 results

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  • Transitions between peace and systemic war as bifurcations in a signed network dynamical system

  • Megan Morrison, J. Nathan Kutz, Michael Gabbay
  • Journal:
    Network Science / Volume 11 / Issue 3 / September 2023
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    21 June 2023, pp. 458-501
    • Article
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  • We investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation and conflict dynamics in the context of international relations between states. The model evolves ties between nodes under the influence of a structural balance force and a dyad-specific force. Model simulations exhibit a sharp bifurcation from peace to systemic war as structural balance pressures increase, a bistable regime in which both peace and war stable equilibria exist, and a hysteretic reverse bifurcation from war to peace. We show how the analytical expression we derive for the peace-to-war bifurcation condition implies that polarized network structure increases susceptibility to systemic war. We develop a framework for identifying patterns of relationship perturbations that are most destabilizing and apply it to the network of European great powers before World War I. We also show that the model exhibits critical slowing down, in which perturbations to the peace equilibrium take longer to decay as the system draws closer to the bifurcation. We discuss how our results relate to international relations theories on the causes and catalysts of systemic war.

Data-Driven Science and Engineering
  • Machine Learning, Dynamical Systems, and Control
  • 2nd edition
  • Steven L. Brunton, J. Nathan Kutz
  • Published online:
    10 June 2022
    Print publication:
    05 May 2022
  • Data-driven discovery is revolutionizing how we model, predict, and control complex systems. Now with Python and MATLAB®, this textbook trains mathematical scientists and engineers for the next generation of scientific discovery by offering a broad overview of the growing intersection of data-driven methods, machine learning, applied optimization, and classical fields of engineering mathematics and mathematical physics. With a focus on integrating dynamical systems modeling and control with modern methods in applied machine learning, this text includes methods that were chosen for their relevance, simplicity, and generality. Topics range from introductory to research-level material, making it accessible to advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students from the engineering and physical sciences. The second edition features new chapters on reinforcement learning and physics-informed machine learning, significant new sections throughout, and chapter exercises. Online supplementary material – including lecture videos per section, homeworks, data, and code in MATLAB®, Python, Julia, and R – available on databookuw.com.

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