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Climate change poses an existential threat, necessitating effective climate policies to enact impactful change. Decisions in this domain are incredibly complex, involving conflicting entities and evidence. In the last decades, policymakers increasingly use simulations and computational methods to guide some of their decisions. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are one of such methods, which combine social, economic, and environmental simulations to forecast potential policy effects. For example, the UN uses outputs of IAMs for their recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Traditionally these have been solved using recursive equation solvers, but have several shortcomings, e.g. struggling at decision making under uncertainty. Recent preliminary work using Reinforcement Learning (RL) as an alternative to traditional solvers shows promising results in decision making in uncertain and noisy scenarios. We extend on this work by introducing multiple interacting RL agents as a preliminary analysis on modelling the complex interplay of socio-interactions between various stakeholders or nations that drives much of the current climate crisis. Our findings show that cooperative agents in this framework can consistently chart pathways towards more desirable futures in terms of reduced carbon emissions and improved economy. However, upon introducing competition between agents, for instance by using opposing reward functions, desirable climate futures are rarely reached. Modelling competition is key to increased realism in these simulations, as such we employ policy interpretation by visualizing what states lead to more uncertain behavior, to understand algorithm failure. Finally, we highlight the current limitations and avenues for further work to ensure future technology uptake for policy derivation.
Childhood bullying is a public health priority. We evaluated the effectiveness and costs of KiVa, a whole-school anti-bullying program that targets the peer context.
Methods
A two-arm pragmatic multicenter cluster randomized controlled trial with embedded economic evaluation. Schools were randomized to KiVa-intervention or usual practice (UP), stratified on school size and Free School Meals eligibility. KiVa was delivered by trained teachers across one school year. Follow-up was at 12 months post randomization. Primary outcome: student-reported bullying-victimization; secondary outcomes: self-reported bullying-perpetration, participant roles in bullying, empathy and teacher-reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Outcomes were analyzed using multilevel linear and logistic regression models.
Findings
Between 8/11/2019–12/02/2021, 118 primary schools were recruited in four trial sites, 11 111 students in primary analysis (KiVa-intervention: n = 5944; 49.6% female; UP: n = 5167, 49.0% female). At baseline, 21.6% of students reported being bullied in the UP group and 20.3% in the KiVa-intervention group, reducing to 20.7% in the UP group and 17.7% in the KiVa-intervention group at follow-up (odds ratio 0.87; 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.97, p value = 0.009). Students in the KiVa group had significantly higher empathy and reduced peer problems. We found no differences in bullying perpetration, school wellbeing, emotional or behavioral problems. A priori subgroup analyses revealed no differences in effectiveness by socioeconomic gradient, or by gender. KiVa costs £20.78 more per pupil than usual practice in the first year, and £1.65 more per pupil in subsequent years.
Interpretation
The KiVa anti-bullying program is effective at reducing bullying victimization with small-moderate effects of public health importance.
Funding
The study was funded by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research program (17-92-11). Intervention costs were funded by the Rayne Foundation, GwE North Wales Regional School Improvement Service, Children's Services, Devon County Council and HSBC Global Services (UK) Ltd.
Fibromyalgia presents a challenge to both the patients experiencing symptoms and the staff aiming to treat them. This qualitative review aimed to synthesise how patients and practitioners experience primary care consultations, develop a rounded picture of how they perceive each other, the challenges to primary care consultation and how they might be tackled.
Methods:
CINAHL, Embase, CENTRAL and Medline were searched from inception to November 2021. Qualitative studies were included if they explored the perspectives and experiences of either fibromyalgia patients or primary care practitioners. Quantitative data, studies not published in English, not set in primary care or that did not distinguish the type of patient or clinician were excluded. Included studies were analysed using thematic synthesis and their quality assessed.
Results:
In total, 30 studies met the inclusion criteria. Thematic synthesis identified three overarching themes: (1) life turned upside down – exploring the chaos experienced by patients as they seek help; (2) negative cycle – highlighting how patient and practitioner factors can create a detrimental cycle; and (3) breaking the cycle – validating patient–doctor relationships underpinned by clear communication can help break the negative cycle.
Conclusions:
Fibromyalgia patients experience uncertainty and chaos that can clash with the attitudes of GPs and the help they can feasibly provide. Difficult consultations in which neither the GP nor patient are satisfied can easily occur. Promoting supportive, reciprocal and open patient–doctor relationships is essential. Future research is required to further explore GP attitudes and to develop an intervention that could improve consultations, patient outcomes and GP satisfaction.
Despite increasing evidence for the effectiveness of individual psychological interventions for bipolar disorder, research on older adults is lacking. We report the first randomised controlled trial of psychological therapy designed specifically for older adults with bipolar disorder.
Aims
To evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of recovery-focused therapy, designed in collaboration with older people living with bipolar disorder.
Method
A parallel, two-armed, randomised controlled trial comparing treatment as usual with up to 14 sessions of recovery-focused therapy plus treatment as usual, for older adults with bipolar disorder.
Results
Thirty-nine participants (67% female, mean age 67 years) were recruited over a 17-month period. Feasibility and acceptability of recruitment, retention (>80% observer-rated outcomes at both 24 and 48 weeks) and intervention processes were demonstrated. The majority of participants started therapy when offered, adhered to the intervention (68% attended all sessions and 89% attended six or more sessions) and reported positive benefits. Clinical assessment measures provide evidence of a signal for effectiveness on a range of outcomes including mood symptoms, time to relapse and functioning. No trial-related serious adverse events were identified.
Conclusions
Recovery-focused therapy is feasible, acceptable and has the potential to improve a range of outcomes for people living with bipolar disorder in later life. A large-scale trial is warranted to provide a reliable estimate of its clinical and cost-effectiveness.
Since the 1960s, academics and policy-makers alike have become increasingly aware of the threats facing minority languages and cultures, speaking not only of language shift but also of language endangerment and language death (see for example, Fishman 1991; Crystal 2000). Language shift illustrates the challenges facing minority languages, in particular the reduction in overall numbers of speakers, the breaking down of intergenerational transmission, and a downturn in the use of minority languages both in everyday settings and in different areas of life (Baker 2011: 72). It is reckoned, for instance, that around half of the estimated 6,800 languages spoken today will have disappeared by the end of the twenty-first century (Crystal 2000; Nettle and Romaine 2000), largely as a result of a process of language shift, as the speakers of minority languages choose, instead, to speak ‘majority’ languages. Globalisation is considered to be one of the most powerful dynamics contributing to weakening minority languages, resulting in language shift and loss (Laponce 2004). In a similar vein, many authors have drawn attention to the impact of globalisation on the various cultural forms practised by various ‘minorities’ and to the interrelationships between cultural loss, identity change and language decline (for example, Fishman 2001: 21).
It is largely as a result of such threats that civil society activists, academics and policy-makers began, especially from the 1960s onwards, to advocate and formulate efforts to respond in creative and practical ways to the challenges facing minority languages and cultures, to halt and reverse their decline, and to promote their revitalisation. For instance, increasing the status of regional or minority languages through political constitutions and legal systems has been the focus of considerable language activism, with attempts being made in a variety of countries to promote equal rights for minority cultures (Lewis 2017). A number of contributors to the language revitalisation literature place a substantial emphasis on the nature of ‘the government’s language policy’ (Tsunoda 2005: 54), and the need for policy programmes to promote and support the continued acquisition and use of the target language (see also Giles et al 1977; Ó Riagáin 2000).
Environmental DNA (eDNA) surveying has potential to become a powerful tool for sustainable parasite control. As trematode parasites require an intermediate snail host that is often aquatic or amphibious to fulfil their lifecycle, water-based eDNA analyses can be used to screen habitats for the presence of snail hosts and identify trematode infection risk areas. The aim of this study was to identify climatic and environmental factors associated with the detection of Galba truncatula eDNA. Fourteen potential G. truncatula habitats on two farms were surveyed over a 9-month period, with eDNA detected using a filter capture, extraction and PCR protocol with data analysed using a generalized estimation equation. The probability of detecting G. truncatula eDNA increased in habitats where snails were visually detected, as temperature increased, and as water pH decreased (P < 0.05). Rainfall was positively associated with eDNA detection in watercourse habitats on farm A, but negatively associated with eDNA detection in watercourse habitats on farm B (P < 0.001), which may be explained by differences in watercourse gradient. This study is the first to identify factors associated with trematode intermediate snail host eDNA detection. These factors should be considered in standardized protocols to evaluate the results of future eDNA surveys.
The Scaling-up Health-Arts Programme: Implementation and Effectiveness Research (SHAPER) project is the world's largest hybrid study on the impact of the arts on mental health embedded into a national healthcare system. This programme, funded by the Wellcome Trust, aims to study the impact and the scalability of the arts as an intervention for mental health. The programme will be delivered by a team of clinicians, research scientists, charities, artists, patients and healthcare professionals in the UK's National Health Service (NHS) and the community, spanning academia, the NHS and the charity sector. SHAPER consists of three studies – Melodies for Mums, Dance for Parkinson's, and Stroke Odysseys – which will recruit over 800 participants, deliver the interventions and draw conclusions on their clinical impact, implementation effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. We hope that this work will inspire organisations and commissioners in the NHS and around the world to expand the remit of social prescribing to include evidence-based arts interventions.
Smoking tobacco is regarded as an epiphenomenon in patients with schizophrenia when it may be causal. We aimed to examine whether smoking status is related to the onset of schizophrenia or the broader diagnosis of non-affective psychosis, including schizophrenia.
Methods
We used data from The Health Improvement Network primary care database to identify people aged 15–24 between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2009. We followed them until the earliest of: first diagnosis of schizophrenia (or psychosis), patient left the practice, practice left THIN, patient died or 31 December 2014.
Results
In men, incidence rates for schizophrenia per 100 000 person years at risk were higher in smoking initiators (non-smoker who became a smoker during the study) than in non-smokers (adjusted IRR 1.94; 95% CI 1.29–2.91) and higher still in smokers (adjusted IRR 3.32; 95% CI 2.67–4.14). Among women, the incidence rate of schizophrenia was higher in smokers than in non-smokers (adjusted IRR 1.50; 95% CI 1.06–2.12), but no higher in smoking initiators than non-smokers. For non-affective psychosis, the pattern was similar for men but more evident in women where psychosis incidence rates were higher in smoking initiators (adjusted IRR 1.90; 95% CI 1.40–2.56) and in smokers (adjusted IRR 2.13; 95% CI 1.76–2.57) than in non-smokers.
Conclusions
We found an important and strong association between smoking and incidence of schizophrenia. Smoking may increase risk through as yet unknown pathways or smoking may share genetic risk with schizophrenia and non-affective psychoses.
Mental health patients can experience involuntary treatment as disempowering and stigmatising, and contact with recovered peers is cited as important for countering stigma and fostering agency and autonomy integral to recovery.
Aims
To advance understanding of the interaction between involuntary treatment and contact with recovered peers, and explore hypothesised relationships to mechanisms of self-evaluation relevant to recovery.
Method
Eighty-nine adults diagnosed with serious mental illness completed items to assess involuntary treatment experience and the extent of prior contact with recovered peers, the Internalised Stigma of Mental Illness Scale, the Self-efficacy for Personal Recovery Scale, the Questionnaire about the Process of Recovery and relevant demographic and clinical scales.
Results
Contact with recovered peers was found to moderate the effects of involuntary treatment on internalised stigma. Sequential conditional process models (i.e. moderated mediation) then demonstrated that conditional internalised stigma (i.e. moderated by contact with recovered peers) mediated the indirect effect of involuntary treatment on recovery-specific self-efficacy, which in turn influenced recovery. Compared with those with low contact with recovered peers, recovery scores were 3.54 points higher for those with high contact.
Conclusions
Although study methods limit causative conclusions, findings are consistent with proposals that contact with recovered peers may be helpful for this patient group, and suggest this may be particularly relevant for those with involuntary treatment experience. Directions for future research, to further clarify measurement and conceptual tensions relating to the study of (dis)empowering experiences in mental health services, are discussed in detail.
The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of olaratumab (Lartruvo®), Eli Lilly & Company Limited, to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of this drug, in combination with doxorubicin, for advanced soft tissue sarcoma (STS) not amenable to surgery or radiotherapy, as part of the Institute's Single Technology Appraisal. The Peninsula Technology Assessment Group critically reviewed the submitted evidence.
Methods:
Clinical effectiveness was derived from an open-label, randomized controlled trial, JGDG. The economic analysis was based on a partitioned survival model with a time horizon of 25 years. The perspective was of the UK National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5 percent per year. The company's evidence was submitted in anticipation that olaratumab would be considered as an alternative to doxorubicin, which has been used as a first-line treatment for advanced STS. To improve the cost effectiveness of olaratumab, the company offered a discount through a Commercial Access Agreement with the NHS England.
Results:
In the company's submission, the mean base-case and probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for olaratumab plus doxorubicin versus doxorubicin alone were GBP 46,076 (USD 61,403) and GBP 47,127 (USD 62,804) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, respectively; the probability of this treatment being cost effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold of GBP 50,000 (USD 66,632) per QALY gained, applicable to end-of-life treatments, was 0.54. The respective estimates in our analysis were approximately GBP 60,000 (USD 79,959) per QALY gained, and the probability of cost-effectiveness was 0.21. The increase in the ICERs was primarily due to differences in extrapolation of overall survival, and drug administration costs.
Conclusions:
Based on the available evidence, olaratumab in combination with doxorubicin improves the survival of patients with advanced STS. However, this treatment is unlikely to be cost-effective. Olaratumab is now recommended for use within the Cancer Drugs Fund.
The number of women in the legal profession has grown tremendously over the last 40 years, with women now representing about half of all law school graduates. Despite the decades-long pipeline of women into the profession, women's representation among law firm partnerships remains dismally low. One key reason identified for women's minority presence among law firm partners is the high level of attrition of women associates from law firms. This high rate of female attrition undermines efforts to achieve gender equality in the legal profession. Using a survey of 1,270 law graduates, we employ piecewise constant exponential hazard regression models to explore gendered career paths from private law practice. Our analysis reveals that, for both men and women, the time leading up to partnership decisions sees many lawyers exit private practice, but women continue to leave private practice long after partnership decisions are made. Gender differences in leaving private practice also surface with reference to cohorts, areas of law, billable hours, firm sizes, and career gaps. Notably, working in criminal law augmented women's risk of leaving private practice, but not for men, while taking time away from practice for reasons other than parental leaves, hastens both men's and women's exits from private practice.
Self-management equips people to manage the symptoms and lifestyle changes that occur in long-term health conditions; however, there is limited evidence about its effectiveness for people with early-stage dementia. This pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) explored the feasibility of a self-management intervention for people with early-stage dementia.
Methods:
The participants were people with early-stage dementia (n = 24) and for each participant a caregiver also took part. Participants were randomly allocated to either an eight-week self-management group intervention or treatment as usual (TAU). Assessments were conducted at baseline, three months and six months post-randomization by a researcher blind to group allocation. The primary outcome measure was self-efficacy score at three months.
Results:
Thirteen people with dementia were randomized to the intervention and 11 to TAU. Two groups were run, the first consisting of six people with dementia and the second of seven people with dementia. There was a small positive effect on self-efficacy with the intervention group showing gains in self-efficacy compared to the TAU group at three months (d = 0.35), and this was maintained at six months (d = 0.23). In terms of intervention acceptability, attrition was minimal, adherence was good, and satisfaction ratings were high. Feedback from participants was analyzed with content analysis. The findings suggest the positive aspects of the intervention were that it fostered independence and reciprocity, promoted social support, offered information, and provided clinician support.
Conclusions:
This study has provided preliminary evidence that self-management may be beneficial for people with early-stage dementia.
Despite evidence for the effectiveness of structured psychological therapies for bipolar disorder no psychological interventions have been specifically designed to enhance personal recovery for individuals with recent-onset bipolar disorder.
Aims
A pilot study to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of a new intervention, recovery-focused cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT), designed in collaboration with individuals with recent-onset bipolar disorder intended to improve clinical and personal recovery outcomes.
Method
A single, blind randomised controlled trial compared treatment as usual (TAU) with recovery-focused CBT plus TAU (n = 67).
Results
Recruitment and follow-up rates within 10% of pre-planned targets to 12-month follow-up were achieved. An average of 14.15 h (s.d. = 4.21) of recovery-focused CBT were attended out of a potential maximum of 18 h. Compared with TAU, recovery-focused CBT significantly improved personal recovery up to 12-month follow-up (Bipolar Recovery Questionnaire mean score 310.87, 95% CI 75.00–546.74 (s.e. = 120.34), P = 0.010, d=0.62) and increased time to any mood relapse during up to 15 months follow-up (χ2 = 7.64,P<0.006, estimated hazard ratio (HR) = 0.38, 95% CI 0.18–0.78). Groups did not differ with respect to medication adherence.
Conclusions
Recovery-focused CBT seems promising with respect to feasibility and potential clinical effectiveness. Clinical- and cost-effectiveness now need to be reliably estimated in a definitive trial.
Lower cognitive ability in childhood is associated with increased risk of future schizophrenia, but its relationship with adult psychotic-like experiences and other psychopathology is less understood.
Aims
To investigate whether this childhood risk factor is shared with adult subclinical psychiatric phenotypes including psychotic-like experiences and general psychiatric morbidity.
Method
A population-based sample of participants born in Great Britain during 1 week in March 1946 was contacted up to 20 times between ages 6 weeks and 53 years. Cognition was assessed at ages 8, 11 and 15 years using a composite of age-appropriate verbal and non-verbal cognitive tests. At age 53 years, psychotic-like experiences were self-reported by 2918 participants using four items from the Psychosis Screening Questionnaire and general psychiatric morbidity was assessed using the scaled version of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28).
Results
Psychotic-like experiences were reported by 22% of participants, and were highly comorbid with other psychopathology. Their presence in adults was significantly associated with poorer childhood cognitive test scores at ages 8 and 15 years, and marginally so at age 11 years. In contrast, high GHQ scores were not associated with poorer childhood cognition after adjustment for the presence of psychotic-like experiences.
Conclusions
Psychotic and non-psychotic psychopathologic symptoms are highly comorbid in the general population. Lower childhood cognitive ability is a risk factor for psychotic-like experiences in mid-life; these phenomena may be one end of a continuum of phenotypic expression driven by variation in early neurodevelopment.
For the children born around the turn of the millennium pre-school care and education became a near universal experience. This reflects the spread of education to younger children and the increasing ‘normality’ of mothers taking paid work outside the home. This chapter is concerned with the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) children's experience of care from people other than the mother, with an emphasis on those children who attended group childcare settings at some point during their pre-school years. It begins by outlining the evolving experience of non-maternal care for all the children in the MCS, across the UK, from infancy to primary school. It goes on to put a microscope on 301 childcare settings attended by a sub-group of children in England in 2005, providing a detailed picture of the services that children received in an unprecedented era of public and private provision. We compare the families who did, and did not, use centre-based care, then describe the quality of centre-based care experienced by the children who did attend, and explore differential access to high-quality services. We also describe the characteristics of centres that were providing high-quality care because they may provide guidance for good practice. Finally, we discuss the results in terms of government policy, ending with recommendations that could improve the quality of childcare provision.
Four questions are addressed in this chapter:
1) What are the childcare experiences of children in the MCS?
2) Is social class related to patterns of childcare use?
3) What is the quality of the group childcare experienced by the MCS, and does it vary according to family and child characteristics?
4) Which characteristics of childcare centres are related to high-quality provision?
What is childcare?
The term ‘childcare’ has various, overlapping, definitions. It refers to services that provide custody and nurture to children whose parents are not present, for a variety of reasons, and a variety of timespans. The parents may be unable to take direct care of their children, because a mother is working outside the home, because the parents are incapable of looking after their children or because they choose to delegate at least some of the care to others, particularly specialists.