Epidemiological data offer conflicting views of the natural course of binge-eating disorder (BED), with large retrospective studies suggesting a protracted course and small prospective studies suggesting a briefer duration. We thus examined changes in BED diagnostic status in a prospective, community-based study that was larger and more representative with respect to sex, age of onset, and body mass index (BMI) than prior multi-year prospective studies.

Probands and relatives with current DSM-IV BED (n = 156) from a family study of BED (‘baseline’) were selected for follow-up at 2.5 and 5 years. Probands were required to have BMI > 25 (women) or >27 (men). Diagnostic interviews and questionnaires were administered at all timepoints.

Of participants with follow-up data (n = 137), 78.1% were female, and 11.7% and 88.3% reported identifying as Black and White, respectively. At baseline, their mean age was 47.2 years, and mean BMI was 36.1. At 2.5 (and 5) years, 61.3% (45.7%), 23.4% (32.6%), and 15.3% (21.7%) of assessed participants exhibited full, sub-threshold, and no BED, respectively. No participants displayed anorexia or bulimia nervosa at follow-up timepoints. Median time to remission (i.e. no BED) exceeded 60 months, and median time to relapse (i.e. sub-threshold or full BED) after remission was 30 months. Two classes of machine learning methods did not consistently outperform random guessing at predicting time to remission from baseline demographic and clinical variables.

Among community-based adults with higher BMI, BED improves with time, but full remission often takes many years, and relapse is common.

Adolescence is characterized by profound change, including increases in negative emotions. Approximately 84% of American adolescents own a smartphone, which can continuously and unobtrusively track variables potentially predictive of heightened negative emotions (e.g. activity levels, location, pattern of phone usage). The extent to which built-in smartphone sensors can reliably predict states of elevated negative affect in adolescents is an open question.

Adolescent participants (n = 22; ages 13–18) with low to high levels of depressive symptoms were followed for 15 weeks using a combination of ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) and continuously collected passive smartphone sensor data. EMAs probed negative emotional states (i.e. anger, sadness and anxiety) 2–3 times per day every other week throughout the study (total: 1145 EMA measurements). Smartphone accelerometer, location and device state data were collected to derive 14 discrete estimates of behavior, including activity level, percentage of time spent at home, sleep onset and duration, and phone usage.

A personalized ensemble machine learning model derived from smartphone sensor data outperformed other statistical approaches (e.g. linear mixed model) and predicted states of elevated anger and anxiety with acceptable discrimination ability (area under the curve (AUC) = 74% and 71%, respectively), but demonstrated more modest discrimination ability for predicting states of high sadness (AUC = 66%).

To the extent that smartphone data could provide reasonably accurate real-time predictions of states of high negative affect in teens, brief ‘just-in-time’ interventions could be immediately deployed via smartphone notifications or mental health apps to alleviate these states.