Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-lrblm Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-10T07:03:11.171Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Nationalization of Japanese Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2016

Kenneth Mori McElwain
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

The postwar electoral dominance of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was founded on (1) strong incumbency advantage, which insulated its legislators from declining party popularity, and (2) the malapportionment of districts, which overvalued the electoral clout of the party's rural base. The LDP's demise in 2009 was due to the reversal of both factors, each of which was related to electoral reforms in the 1990s. First, I demonstrate that elections are becoming more “nationalized,” due to the growing weight that voters attach to the attractiveness of party leaders. Past performance has become a poorer predictor of incumbent reelection, giving way to large partisan swings that are increasingly correlated across districts. Second, malapportionment was reduced by almost half in 1994, meaning that rural votes are now worth fewer seats. As a result, parties that can attract swing voters nationally are better positioned for victory than those with a narrow regional base.

Keywords

Japanelectionsmalapportionmentpartyelectoral reformpublic opinionpartisan swing
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of East Asian Studies , Volume 12 , Issue 3: Special Issue: Japan under the DPJPhillip Y: Lipsey and Ethan Scheiner as guest editors , September 2012 , pp. 323 - 350
Copyright
Copyright © East Asia Institute 

References

Brookes, Ralph H. 1960. “The Analysis of Distorted Representation in Two-Party, Single-Member Elections.” Political Science 12: 158–167.Google Scholar
Christensen, Raymond. 1994. “Electoral Reform in Japan: How It Was Enacted and Changes It May Bring.” Asian Survey 34, 7: 589–605.Google Scholar
Christensen, Raymond. 2002. “The Drawing of Electoral Boundaries in Japan.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association. Boston.Google Scholar
Christensen, Ray, and Johnson, Paul E.. 1995. “Toward a Context-Rich Analysis of Electoral Systems: The Japanese Example.” American Journal of Political Science 39, 3: 575–598.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Rosenbluth, Frances McCall. 1995. “The Structural Determinants of Electoral Cohesiveness: England, Japan, and the United States.” In Structure and Policy in Japan and the United States , ed. Cowhey, Peter F. and McCubbins, Mathew D., 19–34. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Curtis, Gerald L. 1971. Election Campaigning Japanese Style. Tokyo: Kodansha International.Google Scholar
Curtis, Gerald L. 1999. The Logic of Japanese Politics: Leaders, Institutions, and the Limits of Change. Studies of the East Asian Institute. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Döring, Holger, and Manow, Philip. 2011. “Parliament and Government Composition Database (Parlgov): An Infrastructure for Empirical Information on Parties, Elections, and Governments in Modern Democracies.” Accessed November 15, 2011. http://parlgov.org/stable/index.html.Google Scholar
Estévez-Abe, Margarita. 2006. “Japan's Shift Toward a Westminster System: A Structural Analysis of the 2005 Lower House Election and Its Aftermath.” Asian Survey 46, 4: 632–651.Google Scholar
Grofman, Bernard, Koetzle, William, and Brunell, Thomas. 1997. “An Integrated Perspective on the Three Potential Sources of Partisan Bias: Malapportionment, Turnout Differences, and the Geographic Distribution of Party Vote Shares.” Electoral Studies 16, 4: 457–470.Google Scholar
Horiuchi, Yusaku, and Saito, Jun. 2003. “Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan.” American Journal of Political Science 47, 4: 669–682.Google Scholar
Johnston, R. J., Rossiter, David, and Pattie, Charles. 1999. “Integrating and Decomposing the Sources of Partisan Bias: Brookes' Method and the Impact of Redistricting in Great Britain.” Electoral Studies 18: 367–378.Google Scholar
Kabashima, Ikuo, and Imai, Ryosuke. 2002. “Evaluation of Party Leaders and Voting Behavior: An Analysis of the 2000 General Election.” Social Science Japan Journal 5, 1: 85–96.Google Scholar
Krauss, Ellis S., and Nyblade, Benjamin. 2005. “‘Presidentialization’ in Japan? The Prime Minister, Media, and Elections in Japan.” British Journal of Political Science 35: 357–368.Google Scholar
Krauss, Ellis S., and Pekkanen, Robert J.. 2011. The Rise and Fall of Japan's LDP: Political Party Organizations as Historical Institutions. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Maeda, Ko. 2010. “Factors Behind the Historic Defeat of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party in 2009.” Asian Survey 50, 5: 888–907.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McElwain, Kenneth Mori. 2008. “Manipulating Electoral Rules to Manufacture Single Party Dominance.” American Journal of Political Science 52, 1: 32–47.Google Scholar
McElwain, Kenneth Mori. 2009. “How Long Are Koizumi's Coattails? Party-Leader Visits in the 2005 Election.” In Political Change in Japan: Electoral Behavior, Party Realignment, and the Koizumi Reforms , ed. Reed, Steven R., McElwain, Kenneth Mori, and Shimizu, Kay. Palo Alto: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.Google Scholar
McElwain, Kenneth Mori, and Umeda, Michio. 2011. “Party Democratization and the Salience of Party Leaders.” Social Science Japan Journal 62, 1.Google Scholar
McKean, Margaret, and Scheiner, Ethan. 2000. “Japan's New Electoral System: La plus ça change … .” Electoral Studies 19: 447–477.Google Scholar
Nyblade, Benjamin, and Reed, Steven R.. 2008. “Who Cheats? Who Loots? Political Competition and Corruption in Japan.” American Journal of Political Science 52, 4: 926–941.Google Scholar
Ohmiya, Takeo. 1992. Senkyo-seido to giin-teisuu no zesei. 3rd ed. Tokyo: Hokuju Shuppan.Google Scholar
Ramseyer, , Mark, J., and Rosenbluth, Frances McCall. 1993. Japan's Political Marketplace. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Reed, Steven R. 2009. “Party Strategy or Candidate Strategy: How Does the LDP Run the Right Number of Candidates in Japan's Multi-member Districts?” Party Politics 15, 3: 295–314.Google Scholar
Reed, Steven R., Scheiner, Ethan, and Thies, Michael F.. 2012. “The End of LDP Dominance and the Rise of Party-oriented Politics in Japan.” Journal of Japanese Studies 38, 2: 353–375.Google Scholar
Reed, Steven R., and Thies, Michael F.. 2001. “The Causes of Electoral Reform in Japan.” In Mixed-member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds? ed. Shugart, Matthew Soberg and Wattenberg, Martin P., 152–172. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Sato, Seizaburo, and Matsuzaki, Tetsuhisa. 1986. Jiminto seiken. Tokyo: Chuo Kouron-sha.Google Scholar
Scheiner, Ethan. 2005. Democracy Without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in a One-party Dominant State. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Scheiner, Ethan. 2012. “The Electoral System and Japan's Partial Transformation: Party System Consolidation Without Policy Realignment.” Journal of East Asian Studies 12, 3: 351–379.Google Scholar
Shimizu, Kay. 2012. “Electoral Consequences of Municipal Mergers.” Journal of East Asian Studies 12, 3: 381–408.Google Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. 1973. “The Relationship Between Seats and Votes in Two-party Systems.” American Political Science Review 67: 540–547.Google Scholar