Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-hvd4g Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-11T03:00:49.677Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907–1990

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

James D. Morrow ,
Randolph M. Siverson  and
Tressa E. Tabares
James D. Morrow
Affiliation:
Stanford University
Randolph M. Siverson
Affiliation:
University of California, Davis
Tressa E. Tabares
Affiliation:
University of California, Davis
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We test three arguments about the effect of international politics on trade flows. The first argument states that trade flows are greater between states with similar interests than those with dissimilar interests, the second that trade flows are greater in democratic dyads than nondemocratic dyads, and the third that trade flows are greater between allies. We examine trade flows between the major powers from 1907 to 1990. This period provides variation on all three independent variables of interest and allows us to separate the three arguments empirically. We estimate a gravity model of trade with the above political variables added. Our results demonstrate that joint democracy and common interests increase trade in a dyad, but alliances generally do not, even when controlling for polarity of the system.

Type
Research Notes
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 92 , Issue 3 , September 1998 , pp. 649 - 661
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Aitken, Norman D. 1973. “The Effect of EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis.” American Economic Review 63(December):881–92.Google Scholar
Anderson, James E. 1979. “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation.” American Economic Review 69(March):106–16.Google Scholar
Azar, Edward E. 1980. “The Conflict and Peace Databank Project (COPDAB) Project.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24(March):143–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barbieri, katherine. 1996. “Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research 33(February):29–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bairoch, Paul. 1976. “Europe's Gross National Product, 1800–1975.” Journal of European Economic History 5(Fall):273–340.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Katz, Jonathan N.. 1995. “What to Do (and Not to Do) with Times-Series-Cross-Section Data.” American Political Science Review 89(September):634–47.Google Scholar
Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. 1985. “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Micro-Foundations and Empirical Evidence.” Review of Economics and Statistics 67(August):474–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bidwell, R. L. 1970. Currency Conversion Tables: A Hundred Years of Change. London: Rex Collings.Google Scholar
Bliss, Harry, and Russett, Bruce. 1998. “Democracy and Trade: Ties of Interest and Community.” In Democratic Peace in Europe: Myth or Reality?, ed. Geeraerts, Gustaaf and Stouthuysen, Patrick. Brussels: Free University of Brussels Press. Pp. 107–30.Google Scholar
Bremer, Stuart A. 1992. “Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816–1965.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. 36(July):309–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1975. “Measuring Systemic Polarity.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 19(June):187–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1981. The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Smith, Alastair. N.d. “Political Institutions, Political Survival and Policy Success.” In Governing for Prosperity, ed. Mesquita, Bruce Bueno de. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Generale, Bureau de la Statistique. 1900–1911, 1932, 1966. Annuaire Statistique de la France. Paris: Ministere du Commerce de L'Industry des Postes et des Telegraphs.Google Scholar
Clarke, Roger A., and Matko, Dubravka J. I.. 1983. Soviet Economic Facts, 1917–81, 2d ed. New York: St. Martin's.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dingman, Roger V. 1979. “Theories of, and Approaches to, Alliance Politics.” In Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy, ed. Lauren, Paul Gordon. New York: Free Press. Pp. 245–77.Google Scholar
Dixon, William, and Moon, Bruce. 1993. “Political Similarity and American Foreign Trade Patterns.” Political Research Quarterly 46(March):5–25.Google Scholar
Eason, Warren W. 1963. “Labor Force.” In Economic Trends in the Soviet Union, ed. Bergson, Abram and Kuznets, Simon. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Pp. 38–95.Google Scholar
Fitzpatrick, Gary L., and Modlin, Marilyn J.. 1986. Direct Line Distances, U.S. Edition. Metuchen, NJ, and London: Scarecrow.Google Scholar
Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor. 1996. “Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations.” International Organization 50(Winter):109–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gochman, Charles S., and Maoz, Zeev. 1984. “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1976.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 28(December):585–616.Google Scholar
Gowa, Joanne. 1989. “Bipolarity, Multipolarity, and Free Trade.” American Political Science Review 83(December):1245–56.Google Scholar
Gowa, Joanne. 1994. Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gowa, Joanne, and Mansfield, Edward D.. 1993. “Power Politics and International Trade.” American Political Science Review 87(June):408–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Great Britain Central Statistical Office. 1914, 1928, 1938, 1953, 1961, 1967. Annual Abstract of Statistics. London: Central Statistical Office.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert, Jaggers, Keith, and Moore, Will H.. 1989. Polity II Codebook. Boulder, CO: Center for Comparative Politics, Department of Political Science, University of Colorado.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert, Jaggers, Keith, and Moore, Will H.. 1991. “The Transformation of the Western State.” In On Measuring Democracy, ed. Inkeles, Alex. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction. Pp. 69–104.Google Scholar
Hanushek, Eric A., and Jackson, John E.. 1977. Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Hufbauer, Gary C., Schott, Jeffrey J., and Elliott, Kimberly Ann. 1990. Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: History and Current Policy, 2d ed. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund. 1971, 1978. Direction of Trade Statistics. Washington, DC: The Fund.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund. 1985, 1992. Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook. Washington, DC: The Fund.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund. 1995. International Financial Statistics Yearbook. Washington, DC: The Fund.Google Scholar
Istituto Centrale di Statistica. 1912, 1914, 1922–1925, 1929, 1933, 1936, 1939, 1941, 1952, 1959, 1962, 1966. Annuario Statistico Italiano. Rome: Istituto Centrale di Statistica.Google Scholar
Istituto Centrale di Statistica. 1958. Sommario di Storiche Italiane, 1861–1955. Rome: Istituto Centrale di Statistica.Google Scholar
Japan. Department of Finance. 1916, 1936, 1940. Financial and Economic Annual of Japan. Tokyo: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Karasik, Theordore W., ed. 1992. USSR Facts and Figures Annual, vol. 17. London: Academic Press International.Google Scholar
Keohane, Robert O., and Nye, Joseph H.. 1977. Power and Interdependence. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Liesner, Thelma. 1989. One Hundred Years of Economic Statistics. New York: The Economist.Google Scholar
Maddison, Angus. 1991. Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development: A Long Run Comparative View. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., Milner, Helen V., and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 1997. “Free to Trade: Democracies and International Trade Negotiations.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Abdolali, Nasrin. 1989. “Regimes Types and International Conflict, 1816–1976.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 33(March):3–35.Google Scholar
Miller, Margaret. 1967. The Economic Development of Russia. London: Frank Cass.Google Scholar
Mitchell, Brian R. 1980. European Historical Statistics, 1750–1975. London: Butler and Tanner.Google Scholar
Mitchell, Brian R. 1982. International Historical Statistics: Africa and Asia. New York: New York University Press.Google Scholar
Mitchell, Brian R. 1983. International Historical Statistics: The Americas and Australia. Detroit: Gale Research.Google Scholar
Mitchell, Brian R. 1992. International Historical Statistics: Europe, 1750–1988. New York: Stockton.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1991. “Alliances and Asymmetry.” American Journal of Political Science 35(November):904–33.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1997. “When Do ‘Relative Gains’ Impede Trade?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(February):12–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Tabares, Tressa E.. 1998. “The Wages of Peace: Trade, Democracy, Interests and International Conflict Among the Major Powers.” In Democratic Peace in Europe: Myth or Reality?, ed. Geeraerts, Gustaaf and Stouthuysen, Patrick. Brussels: Free University of Brussels Press. Pp. 131–49.Google Scholar
North, Douglass C. 1990. Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Nye, Joseph S. 1971. Peace in Parts. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Oneal, John R., Oneal, Francis H., Maoz, Zeev, and Russett, Bruce. 1996. “The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950–1985.” Journal of Peace Research 33(February):11–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parks, Richard. 1967. “Efficient Estimation of a System of Regression Equations When Disturbances Are Both Serially and Contemporaneously Correlated.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62(June):500–9.Google Scholar
Polachek, Solomon W. 1980. “Conflict and Trade.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24(March):55–78.Google Scholar
Pollins, Brian M. 1989a. “Does Trade Still Follow the Flag?” American Political Science Review 83(June):465–80.Google Scholar
Pollins, Brian M. 1989b. “Conflict, Cooperation, and Commerce: The Effects of International Political Interactions on Bilateral Trade Flows.” American Journal of Political Science 33(August):737–61.Google Scholar
Prais, S. G., and Winsten, C. B.. 1954. “Trend Estimation and Serial Correlation.” Discussion paper, Cowles Commission, Chicago.Google Scholar
Reuveny, Rafael, and Kang, Heejoon. 1996. “International Trade, Political Conflict/Cooperation, and Granger Causality.” American Journal of Political Science 40(August):943–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Root, Hilton L. 1994. The Fountain of Privilege: Political Foundations of Markets in Old Regime France and England. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Siverson, Randolph M., and Emmons, Juliann. 1991. “Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices in the Twentieth Century.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(June):285–306.Google Scholar
Small, Melvin, and Singer, J. David. 1969. “Formal Alliances, 1816–1965: An Extension of the Basic Data.” Journal of Peace Research 6(3):257–82.Google Scholar
Smith, Dale L., and Eyerman, Joe. 1996. “Anarchy and Interdependence: An Empirical Analysis of the Durability of Relative Gains.” Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA.Google Scholar
Stimson, James. 1985. “Regression in Space and Time: A Statistical Essay.” American Journal of Political Science 29(November):914–47.Google Scholar
United Nations. 1959, 1961, 1966. Yearbook of International Trade Statistics. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
United Nations. 1994. International Trade Statistics Yearbook. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
United States Census Bureau. 1912, 1919, 1921, 1928, 1931, 1933, 1938, 1940, 1941, 1947, 1962, 1995. Statistical Abstracts of the United States. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.