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How Partisan Are U.S. Local Elections? Evidence from 2020 Cast Vote Records

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 September 2025

ALEKSANDRA CONEVSKA Open the ORCID record for ALEKSANDRA CONEVSKA [Opens in a new window] ,
SHIGEO HIRANO Open the ORCID record for SHIGEO HIRANO [Opens in a new window] ,
SHIRO KURIWAKI Open the ORCID record for SHIRO KURIWAKI [Opens in a new window] ,
JEFFREY B. LEWIS Open the ORCID record for JEFFREY B. LEWIS [Opens in a new window] ,
CAN MUTLU Open the ORCID record for CAN MUTLU [Opens in a new window]  and
JAMES M. SNYDER Jr. Open the ORCID record for JAMES M. SNYDER Jr. [Opens in a new window]
ALEKSANDRA CONEVSKA*
Affiliation:
Harvard University, United States
SHIGEO HIRANO*
Affiliation:
Columbia University, United States
SHIRO KURIWAKI*
Affiliation:
Yale University, United States
JEFFREY B. LEWIS*
Affiliation:
University of California, Los Angeles, United States
CAN MUTLU*
Affiliation:
Harvard University, United States
JAMES M. SNYDER Jr.*
Affiliation:
Harvard University, United States
*
Aleksandra Conevska, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Government, Harvard University, United States, aleksandraconevska@g.harvard.edu.
Shigeo Hirano, Professor, Department of Political Science, Columbia University, United States, sh145@columbia.edu.
Shiro Kuriwaki, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, United States, shiro.kuriwaki@yale.edu.
Jeffrey B. Lewis, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles, United States, jblewis@polisci.ucla.edu.
Can Mutlu, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Government, Harvard University, United States, cmutlu@g.harvard.edu.
James M. Snyder, Jr., Leroy B. Williams Professor of History and Political Science, Department of Government, Harvard University, United States, jsnyder@gov.harvard.edu.
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Abstract

Analyzing nominally partisan contests, previous literature has argued that state and local politics have nationalized. Here we use individual ballots from the 2020 general elections covering over 50 million voters to study the relationship between individual national partisanship and voting in over 5,700 contested down-ballot contests, including nonpartisan races and ballot measures. Voting in partisan contests can be explained by voter’s national partisanship, consistent with existing literature. However, we find that voting for local nonpartisan offices and ballot measures is much less partisan. National partisanship explains more than 80% of the within-contest variation in voting for partisan state and local offices but less than 10% for local nonpartisan contests and local ballot measures. The degree of partisanship in local spending measures varies by the type of service—for example, education, roads, public safety, housing. Finally, we find evidence of structure in the pattern of votes on local spending measures.

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Type
Research Article
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American Political Science Review , First View , pp. 1 - 18
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of American Political Science Association

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Footnotes

Handling editor: Marisa Abrajano.

References

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