Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511808098

Is our case strong enough to go to trial? Will interest rates go up? Can I trust this person? Such questions - and the judgments required to answer them - are woven into the fabric of everyday experience. This book, first published in 2002, examines how people make such judgments. The study of human judgment was transformed in the 1970s, when Kahneman and Tversky introduced their 'heuristics and biases' approach and challenged the dominance of strictly rational models. Their work highlighted the reflexive mental operations used to make complex problems manageable and illuminated how the same processes can lead to both accurate and dangerously flawed judgments. The heuristics and biases framework generated a torrent of influential research in psychology - research that reverberated widely and affected scholarship in economics, law, medicine, management, and political science. This book compiles the most influential research in the heuristics and biases tradition since the initial collection of 1982 (by Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky).

Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment; offers a massive, state-of-the-art treatment of the literature, supplementing a similar book published two decades ago...This is an impressive book, full of implications for law and policy." Cass Sunstein, University of Chicago Law School

"...the book should serve well as a reference work for researchers in cognitive science and as a textbook for advanced courses in that difficult topic. Philosophers interested in cognitive science will also wish to consult it." Metapsychology Online Review

"Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment is a scholarly treat, one that is sure to shape the perspectives of another generation of researchers, teachers, and graduate students. The book will serve as a welcome refresher course for some readers and a strong introduction to an important research perspective for others." Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology

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Contents

Frontmatter
pp i-vi
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Contents
pp vii-x
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List of Contributors
pp xi-xiv
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Preface
pp xv-xvi
- By Thomas Gilovich, Professor of Psychology, Cornell University, Dale Griffin, Associate Professor, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Daniel Kahneman, Professor of Psychology and Professor of Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School of Public Affairs, Princeton University
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Introduction – Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now
pp 1-18
- By Thomas Gilovich, Psychology Department Cornell University, Dale Griffin, Department of Commerce University of British Columbia
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PART ONE - THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL EXTENSIONS
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1 - Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning
pp 19-48
The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
- By Amos Tversky, Department of Psychology Stanford University, Daniel Kahneman, Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public Policy Princeton University
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2 - Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment
pp 49-81
- By Daniel Kahneman, Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public Policy Princeton University, Shane Frederick, Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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3 - How Alike Is It? versus How Likely Is It?: A Disjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgments
pp 82-97
- By Maya Bar-Hillel, Department of Psychology Hebrew University, Efrat Neter, Department of Psychology Hebrew University
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4 - Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery
pp 98-102
- By Steven J. Sherman, Department of Psychology Indiana University, Robert B. Cialdini, Department of Psychology Arizona State University, Donna F. Schwartzman, Department of Psychology Arizona State University, Kim D. Reynolds, Department of Psychology Arizona State University
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5 - The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information
pp 103-119
- By Norbert Schwarz, Institute for Social Research University of Michigan, Leigh Ann Vaughn, Institute for Social Research University of Michigan
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6 - Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value
pp 120-138
- By Gretchen B. Chapman, Psychology Department Rutgers University, Eric J. Johnson, Graduate School of Business Columbia University
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7 - Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic
pp 139-149
- By Nicholas Epley, Department of Psychology Harvard University, Thomas Gilovich, Psychology Department Cornell University
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8 - Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They “Should”
pp 150-166
- By Boaz Keysar, Department of Psychology University of Chicago, Dale J. Barr, Department of Psychology University of Chicago
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9 - Inferential Correction
pp 167-184
- By Daniel T. Gilbert, Department of Psychology Harvard University
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10 - Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem
pp 185-200
- By Timothy D. Wilson, Department of Psychology University of Virginia, David B. Centerbar, Department of Psychology University of Virginia, Nancy Brekke, Department of Psychology Lake Forest College
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11 - Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”
pp 201-216
- By Paul Rozin, Department of Psychology University of Pennsylvania, Carol Nemeroff, Department of Psychology Arizona State University
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12 - Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice
pp 217-229
- By Paul Slovic, Decision Research, Dale Griffin, Department of Commerce University of British Columbia, Amos Tversky, Department of Psychology Stanford University
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13 - The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence
pp 230-249
- By Dale Griffin, Department of Commerce University of British Columbia, Amos Tversky, Department of Psychology Stanford University
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14 - Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions
pp 250-270
- By Roger Buehler, Psychology Department Wilfrid Laurier University, Dale Griffin, Department of Commerce University of British Columbia, Michael Ross, Department of Psychology University of Waterloo
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15 - Probability Judgment across Cultures
pp 271-291
- By J. Frank Yates, Department of Psychology University of Michigan, Ju-Whei Lee, Department of Psychology Chung Yuan University, Winston R. Sieck, Department of Psychology University of Michigan, Incheol Choi, Department of Psychology Seoul National University, Paul C. Price, Department of Psychology California State University – Fresno
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16 - Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting
pp 292-312
- By Daniel T. Gilbert, Department of Psychology Harvard University, Elizabeth C. Pinel, Department of Psychology Penn State University, Timothy D. Wilson, Department of Psychology University of Virginia, Stephen J. Blumberg, National Institutes of Health, Thalia P. Wheatley, Department of Psychology University of Virginia
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17 - Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing Interventions
pp 313-323
- By Neil D. Weinstein, Department of Psychology Rutgers University, William M. Klein, Department of Psychology Colby College
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18 - Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability
pp 324-333
- By David Dunning, Department of Psychology Cornell University, Judith A. Meyerowitz, Department of Psychology Cornell University, Amy D. Holzberg, Department of Psychology Cornell University
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19 - When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism
pp 334-347
- By David A. Armor, Department of Psychology Yale University, Shelley E. Taylor, Department of Psychology UCLA
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20 - Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives
pp 348-366
- By Daniel Kahneman, Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public Policy Princeton University, Dale T. Miller, Department of Psychology Princeton University
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21 - Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself
pp 367-378
- By Dale T. Miller, Department of Psychology Princeton University, Brian R. Taylor, Albert Einstein College of Medicine
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PART TWO - NEW THEORETICAL DIRECTIONS
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22 - Two Systems of Reasoning
pp 379-396
- By Steven A. Sloman, Department of Cognitive and Linguistic Sciences Brown University
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23 - The Affect Heuristic
pp 397-420
- By Paul Slovic, Decision Research, Melissa Finucane, Decision Research, Ellen Peters, Decision Research, Donald G. MacGregor, Decision Research
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The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

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