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Causal studies on the relationship between wellbeing and political participation have produced mixed results. Happier voters are found to be more engaged in some contexts but not others. In the Arab world, low wellbeing was a strong precedent and predictor of future uprisings. This relationship appears to be slightly weaker in Western countries.
Overall, there is strong evidence that happiness predicts higher levels of support for the incumbent political party. This effect has been found in a number of countries and using a variety of different analytic methodologies, including propensity score matching techniques and natural experiments. In many cases, this effect is even stronger than standard economic models of voter preferences.
Around the world, unhappier voters are also more likely to vote for populist parties and identify with populist ideologies. However, studies performed on elections in France, the United Kingdom, and the United States have found mostly mixed results regarding the extent to which life satisfaction in particular is predictive of populist electoral victories.
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