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Early signs suggest that Trump may revise the Biden administration's incentive-driven semiconductor policy and instead rely more heavily on tariffs to restore US semiconductor manufacturing. To what extent can semiconductor tariffs serve as a form of policy whiplash to compel foreign companies to relocate their operations? This article argues that while tariffs can influence investment decisions, Trump overstates their effects on fab locations and supply chain diversification. Semiconductor manufacturers weigh a complex set of factors encompassing partners in the supply chain ecosystem, potential regulatory scrutiny, technological trends, and more. Tariffs in and of themselves may not be a determinative factor behind TSMC's recently announced plan to expand its US investment.
In 2025, the United States raised tariffs to rates not seen for more than a century. These tariffs were not part of a carefully designed industrial strategy. Instead, the second Trump administration distanced itself from existing industrial policy initiatives and indicated a desire to roll back government-funded subsidies for businesses. This article examines the rationale behind the United States’ pivot from subsidies to tariffs and explores implications for trade partners and multilateral institutions.
Chapter 3 develops a theory of the domestic politics of intra-industry trade. It argues that changes in the nature of trade away from endowments-based trade to two-way trade within industries change the structure of preferences over trade policy and the way that actors mobilize politically in order to influence trade policy. This, in turn, affects trade policy outcomes and the ease with which trade agreements are concluded. First, I argue that the distributional effects of intra-industry trade drive a wedge through industry preferences over trade policy. As intra-industry trade increases, globalized firms support openness, and smaller, domestic-oriented firms within the same industry support protection. Second, these heterogeneous firm preferences change the ability of industries to overcome collective action problems and organize politically to influence trade policy. I argue that industry associations are hamstrung in their ability to lobby while individual firms have a greater incentive to lobby alone for their preferred policies. Third, exporters will overwhelm domestic-oriented firms in their ability to lobby, and as a result, tariffs will be lower in industries with higher intra-industry trade, though this may not be the case with non-tariff barriers to trade.
This chapter examines the relationship between intra-industry trade and trade policy outcomes. Through a cross-national time-series analysis of trade liberalization in developed economies, the chapter shows that industries with higher IIT enjoy lower tariff levels, controlling for leading alternative explanations from the literature. This tests the hypothesis that intra-industry trade is less politically controversial and easier to liberalize than classic, endowments-based trade. However, this chapter also shows that IIT is associated with higher non-tariff measures, a new and significant finding, which is discussed as it pertains to the book's arguments about intra-industry trade’s winners and losers.
Economists have modelled the economic rationale for intra-industry trade, yet political scientists largely have neglected it until recently. Every Firm for Itself explores how dramatic shifts in the way countries trade have radically changed trade politics in the US and EU. It explores how electorally minded policymakers respond to heavy lobbying by powerful corporations and provide trade policies that further advantage these large firms. It explains puzzling empirical phenomena such as the rise of individual firm lobbying, the decline of broad trade coalitions, the decline of labor union activity in trade politics, and the rising public backlash to globalization due to trade politics becoming increasingly dominated by large firms. With an approach that connects economics and politics, this book shows how contemporary trading patterns among rich countries undermine longstanding coalitions and industry associations that once successfully represented large and small firms alike.
Multinational enterprises do not pay their fair share of taxes to market countries where profits are generated because market countries are only allowed to tax companies with a physical presence. Recently, a global tax deal (BEPS 2.0) was reached to tackle these issues. Proposed by the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework and endorsed by nearly 140 countries, BEPS 2.0 sets forth two Pillars: Pillar One addresses digital taxation while Pillar Two addresses a global minimum tax. However, Pillar One’s success is doubtful, as its details have become increasingly complex and degraded by political compromises and carve-outs. Also, countries are unlikely to repeal digital services taxes (DSTs), which is an adamant requirement of the United States in adopting Pillar One. This chapter presents the treaty overrides problem that will occur if the United States implements Pillar One by executive agreement to bypass the treaty ratification and suggests separating the two Pillars to preserve the global minimum tax. Regarding DSTs, it provides empirical studies that demonstrate the harm retaliatory tariffs cause. Finally, it endorses the UN’s digital taxation proposal and proposes a new data excise tax.
With the rise of strategic rivalry and geopolitical competition, governments turned to economic policy to gain influence, power, and resources. The defining feature became the pursuit of national interest, which was invoked to introduce investment screening policies, increase tariffs, prevent cross-border M&A deals, expropriate assets, restrict technology transfer, provide preferential subsidies, and create national champions. To respond effectively, global companies must recognize the systemic changes underway and develop capabilities to address them. Companies need to acknowledge that they will come to be defined by their nationality and innovation is an important battlefield. Government policies to contain the influence of foreign firms from adversarial countries cluster around four levers: market access, level playing field, investment security, and institutional alignment. To actively manage geopolitical tensions, companies need to assess how geopolitics will share their resources, competitive advantage, and firm organization. They need to develop skills to scan the global landscape, personalize the information, plan the response, and pivot if there are headwinds. Impact on employees, who works, how work is performed, and where it takes place need to be evaluated. Managing policymakers becomes a crucial part of managing a global business.
In an era marked by new challenges – from trade wars and sanctions, to supply chain disruptions and political instability – understanding the relationship between geopolitics and business is more crucial than ever. How are companies impacted and why should they care? This book explores how geopolitical shifts, including the rise of China, the US-China tech competition, and regional conflicts, affect markets, industries, companies, managers, and employees. Uncovering the structural changes reshaping the global business environment, the business risks from an increasing national security focus, and the implications of trade wars and global conflicts on innovation, Srividya Jandhyala offers practical strategies and skills for managers and employees to manage these risks. With a focus on real world case studies and actionable insights for businesses, The Great Disruption is as an essential resource, offering a roadmap for companies to navigate an evolving but unpredictable global business landscape.
Is trade lobbying effective and does its effectiveness vary across firms? Using requests for relief from China trade war tariffs, we demonstrate that lobbying for specific trade policies contributed to securing those exact policies, an elusive target in the long-running trade lobbying literature. We further argue that lobbying should be most impactful for big companies because policymakers prioritize jobs and growth when allocating a limited number of policy favors. In line with this, we find that lobbying for tariff reductions by large firms was hugely more effective than for small firms, though with one major exception: requests from firms that owned foreign subsidiaries in China were overwhelmingly rejected. Large firms are powerful, especially when their interests align with policymakers’ economic policy objectives.
The chapter examines the development of agriculture and rural society, the crisis of agriculture in the late nineteenth century, and the political mobilization of German farmers.
This chapter focuses on the new gas directive and regulation (the Gas Package) from the perspective of the hydrogen ‘revolution’, and the importance allocated to its future role in the ongoing energy transition and in the achievement of the ambitious net zero target by 2050. Particular attention is given to key regulatory concepts and pillars in the new Gas Package, aimed at creating the conditions for a more cost-effective transition and creating an internal market in hydrogen and low carbon gases: these are unbundling, tariff regulation and third-party access. The chapter first describes these concepts as developed by the new measures and questions whether these concepts, which have been effectively transposed from natural gas regulation to hydrogen regulation, are suitable to achieve a cost-effective transition to a decarbonised gas market. In particular, the chapter will examine whether the proposed terminology, although fundamental, is sufficiently clearly and comprehensively defined in the new measures. Second, the chapter questions whether the new Gas Package establishes the necessary stable regulatory framework for incentivising hydrogen investment, by highlighting where the Gas Package could have been more comprehensive but also flexible in its treatment of concepts such as unbundling, on the tariff regime and third-party access provisions. It also queries whether the challenges of regulatory balancing can be adequately dealt with by way of the ‘regulatory holiday regime’ as proposed in the Gas Package.
Recent years have seen an increased focus on the implementation of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). While the number of PTAs has risen remarkably since early 2000, data on the utilization of preferential tariffs under these agreements point out that some businesses have not gained access to all the benefits that PTAs can provide. When utilization rates are low, the impact of the agreement will likely differ from what was anticipated by ex-ante economic research. This paper conducts a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the expected impact of the EU–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement and compares a scenario that includes realistic preference utilization data with a standard scenario where all tariff liberalization is assumed to be fully utilized by businesses. The results show considerable differences between the two scenarios and illustrate the need to make the inclusion of credible utilization data standard practice in the modelling of international trade.
The U.S. is losing the competition for good jobs and high-value industries because most of Washington believes trade should be free, the dollar should float, and that innovation comes exclusively from the private sector. In this book, the authors make the bold case that these laissez-faire ideas have failed and that a robust industrial policy is the only way for America to remain prosperous and secure. Trump and Biden have enacted some of its elements, but it needs to be made systematic and comprehensive, including tariffs to protect key industries, a competitive exchange rate, and federal support for commercialization—not just invention—of new technologies. Timely, meticulously researched, and bipartisan, this impressive analysis replaces misunderstandings about industrial policy with lucid explanations of its underlying economic theory, the tools that implement it, and its successes (and failures) in America and abroad. It examines key industries of the past and future – steel, automobiles, television, semiconductors, space, aviation, robotics, and nanotechnology. It concludes with a realistic, actionable policy roadmap. A work of rigor and ambition, Industrial Policy for the United States is essential reading.
The WTO is founded on commitments that governments make to each other in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. These rules provide a structure for international trade in which governments are generally restricted in when they can raise tariffs on imports and whether they can discriminate among their trading partners. This chapter examines the contemporary framework for international trade and its main rules, including national treatment, bound tariffs, and most-favored nation, as well as the WTO’s dispute settlement process. The Shrimp-Turtle case provides an illustration of how these rules interact with international politics to create new political dynamics.
This chapter discusses Keynes’s Economic Consequences of the Peace as a matrix for understanding the changing institutional landscape of international trade. In 1919, Keynes highlighted the perils of German participation and US non-participation in international politics, twin problems that continued to frame trade debates in the League of Nations for the remainder of the 1920s. Generally, German leaders supported the construction of an open and regulated world economy. Many internationalists were eager to lock Germany into a system of multilateral norms but also feared that integrating Germany into global markets would reinforce its dominance in key strategic sectors. In contrast, the United States remained aloof from League trade negotiations in the 1920s. Europeans were divided over whether to respond with universal trade rules that the United States might eventually be persuaded to follow or with a regionalist approach that would enable Europeans to negotiate directly with their Atlantic neighbour on a more equal footing. As Keynes saw clearly, both sets of concerns were exacerbated by the financial imbalances stemming from war debts and reparations.
This chapter investigates the degree of pass-through from import prices and tariffs to wholesale prices in interwar Britain using a new high-frequency micro data set. The main results are: (i) Pass-through from import prices and tariffs to wholesale prices was economically and statistically significant. (ii) Despite devaluation, import prices exacerbated deflation in the early 1930s because of the global slump in export prices. (iii) Rising protection, however, was a mild stimulus to prices during the shift to inflation.
This paper explores American tariff politics and the embrace of protectionism within the Ohio Valley in the two decades following the War of 1812. During these years, residents of the western states navigated the emergence of steam transportation, a growing number of state-chartered banks, and intense population growth. This fueled an economic boom that went bust during the Panic of 1819. Western farmers, merchants, and manufacturers blamed harmful patterns of trade for this economic crisis, which bolstered a distinct regional identity that embraced a properly constructed restrictive tariff as a “western” measure. Consequently, the decade of the 1820s featured the most sustained period of conflict over the tariff issue in the antebellum era. This article examines western participation in conflicts over commerce and roots the political economy of trade policy in changing economic conditions that inspired distinct northern, southern, and western perspectives on trade and economic development. I conclude that both protectionist claims to economic nationalism and free trade embrace of international exchange overlook the individual assessments of local and regional markets that set the terms on which participants in the tariff debates of the early republic imagined future development.
Chapter Two identifies the current legal and regulatory arrangements related to China’s electricity sector by examining the institutions and governing authority, pricing and tariff regulations, and investment approval. These regulatory aspects often determine the market features and characteristics of an electricity system. This chapter provides the foundation for understanding the design of critical supporting mechanisms adopted by the Renewable Energy Law and their implementation, which are discussed in the subsequent chapter.