Over the past two decades, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has undergone significant glacier mass loss, driven primarily by surface melt. This study presents a detailed analysis of supraglacial drainage evolution along Ellesmere Island’s ∼830 km latitudinal extent using satellite imagery, historical aerial photographs and DEMs from 1959 to 2020. Analysis of five glaciers shows that drainage density (Dd) has increased over time, driven by the expansion of perennial rivers, especially at higher elevations. Far northern glaciers exhibit stable, well-developed drainage systems, while southern glaciers show a relatively greater increase in canyon development since 1959. Cold surface ice in the north supports higher Dd, while southern glaciers with extensive sinks (moulins and large crevasses) exhibit stronger surface-to-bed connectivity. Despite increased channelization, sinuosity changes remain statistically insignificant, reflecting dynamic canyon behavior governed by surface slope and meltwater discharge. Results align with modeled increases in melt, especially on southern glaciers where supraglacial systems have expanded most rapidly. Continued equilibrium line altitude rise under future warming is expected to intensify melt and result in the expansion of supraglacial drainage systems up-glacier, particularly for glaciers with large amounts of ice at mid-elevation.

Using ICESat-2 and ArcticDEM strips we track height change in a glacial basin in northern Ellesmere Island Canada. The surface topography dips towards the middle of the basin and ArcticDEM differences show a 1–3 m increase in 2020 summer surface height over an area of 8–10 km2. ICESat-2 heights confirm that each melt season (2019–2024), the height change of melt water at the basin edge matches that over ice in the basin middle. The summer height increase happens at the same time as an upstream drop in surface elevation suggesting yearly episodic subglacial water movement from upstream to a downstream subglacial lake. Melt water drainage occurs in the fall to a particular elevation and apparently follows a path at the northern edge of the basin. These data illustrate subglacial melt water movement both spatially and temporally in rarely obtained detail and are consistent with data from two NASA IceBridge passes.

Glacier motion, retreat and glacier hazards such as surges and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are likely underpinned by subglacial hydrology. Recent advances in subglacial hydrological modeling allow us to shed light on subglacial processes that lead to changes in ice mass balance in High Mountain Asia. We present the first application of the Subglacial Hydrology And Kinetic, Transient Interactions (SHAKTI) model on an alpine glacier. Shishper Glacier, our study site, is a mountain glacier in northern Pakistan that exhibits concurrent surges and GLOFs, which endanger local communities and infrastructure. Without coupling to ice velocity, the modeled subglacial hydrological system undergoes transitions between inefficient to efficient drainage and back during spring and fall, supporting previous observations of spring and fall speedups of glaciers in the region. We compare modeled effective pressures from the years 2017-19 with previously observed velocities, suggesting that while subglacial hydrology may explain seasonal sliding dynamics, our model is unable to provide an explanation for surge-scale behavior, implicating a need for coupled hydrological and ice dynamics modeling of surge conditions. This work demonstrates the potential of using ice sheet models for alpine glaciology and provides a new nucleus for modeling of glacial hazards in alpine environments.

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

Quantifying snow water equivalent (SWE) with ground-penetrating radar (GPR) in a warming climate is complicated by the incidence and variability of liquid water in snow. Snow surveys conducted during the melt season serve as a valuable analog to conditions under future warming. Here, we determine the variability of wet snowpack properties (relative permittivity and density) to quantify their impact on SWE estimates using GPR. We collected spatially continuous snowpack measurements with 400 MHz GPR in 2012 and 2021 across repeat transects (∼150 km each year) along with spring and summer snow depth and density measurements from snow pits and snow cores. Snow relative permittivity values ranged from 2.06 to 2.62 in 2012 and 2.11 to 5.11 in 2021, resulting in calculated volumetric liquid water content (LWC) between 1.7% and 5.7% in 2012 and 2.1% and 16% in 2021. This variability in snow relative permittivity results in SWE uncertainties of 8% —33%, with more extreme cases reaching 13%—45%. We attribute this uncertainty to spatial and temporal variability in LWC when using GPR to estimate SWE. As snowpacks become wetter with rising atmospheric temperatures, GPR surveys should include in situ relative permittivity measurements to reduce depth and SWE interpretation uncertainties.

The addition and refreezing of liquid water to Greenland’s accumulation area are increasingly important processes for assessing the ice sheet’s present and future mass balance, but uncertain initial conditions, complex infiltration physics and limited field data pose challenges. Satellite-based L-band radiometry offers a promising new tool for observing liquid water in the firn layer, although further validation is needed. This paper compares time series of liquid water amount (LWA) from three percolation zone sites generated by a localized point-model, a regional climate model, in situ measurement, and L-band radiometric retrievals. LWA integrates the interplay of liquid water generation and refreezing, which often occur simultaneously and repeatedly within firn layers on diurnal, episodic, and seasonal scales offering insights into methods for measuring and modeling meltwater processes. The four LWA records showed average discrepancies of up to 62% nRMSE, reflecting shortcomings inherent to each method. Better agreement between series occurred after excluding the regional climate model record, lowering nRMSE to 8–13%. The agreement between L-band radiometry and other LWA records inspires confidence in this observational tool for understanding firn meltwater processes and serving as a validation target for simulations of water processes in Greenland’s melting firn layer.

The term ‘water pocket’ describes invisible en- and subglacial water reservoirs that can cause sudden glacial outburst floods. However, there is currently no consensus on its definition and the formation and rupture mechanisms of water pockets remain poorly understood. This study aims to understand the mechanisms behind water pocket outburst floods (WPOFs) from alpine glaciers by analyzing their spatial and temporal distribution, pre-event meteorological conditions and the glacio-geomorphic features of the glaciers from which the floods originate. To this end, we updated an inventory of known WPOFs in the Swiss Alps to 91 events from 37 individual glaciers. Most WPOFs occurred between June and September, likely linked to meltwater input. Meteorological data indicate anomalously high temperatures during the days preceding most events and heavy precipitation on 25% of days for which WPOFs occur, indicating that water pockets typically rupture during periods of high water input. We propose four mechanisms of water pocket formation: temporary subglacial channel blockage (which is the mechanism suggested most often for our inventory), hydraulic barriers, water-filled crevasses and accumulation of liquid water behind barriers of cold ice (thermal barriers). Overall, our analysis highlights the challenge of understanding WPOFs due to the subsurface nature of water pockets, emphasizing the need for field-based research to improve their detection and monitoring.

Firn, an interannual layer made of a seasonal snow, covers the vast majority of the Greenland ice sheet. Firn holds the potential to buffer meltwater runoff by refreezing in its pore space. However, recent intensive summer melt and refreezing have led to the development of low-permeability ice slabs several metres thick in the shallow firn of the percolation zone, in areas that now often undergo visible surface runoff. Here, we analyse ice slab thickness retrievals from Operation IceBridge Accumulation Radar together with visible runoff limits derived from Landsat imagery. We constrain the minimum average ice slab thickness over spatial scales of kilometres that can support visible surface water flow as lying between 2.8 m and 3.5 m. We highlight that there is substantial heterogeneity in ice slab thickness, much of which can be explained by visible lateral meltwater flow over the slab and subsequent localised refreezing. Our findings provide a basis for improving how firn models partition between meltwater retention and runoff, by providing constraints on when simulated ice layers become impermeable enough to support lateral water flow over scales of several kilometres.

Climate change is causing Himalayan glaciers to shrink rapidly and natural hazards to increase, while downstream exposure is growing. Glacier shrinkage promotes the formation of glacial lakes, which can suddenly drain and produce glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Bhutan is one of the most vulnerable countries globally to these hazards. Here we use remotely sensed imagery to quantify changes in supraglacial water storage on Tshojo Glacier, Bhutan, where previous supraglacial pond drainage events have necessitated downstream evacuation. Results showed a doubling of both total ponded area (104 529 m2 to 213 943 m2) and its std dev. (64 808 m2 to 158 550 m2) between the periods 1987–2003 and 2007–2020, which was predominantly driven by increases in the areas of the biggest ponds. These ponds drained regularly and have occupied the same location since at least 1967. Tshojo Glacier has remained in the first stage of proglacial lake development for 53 years, which we attribute to its moderate slopes and ice velocities. Numerical modelling shows that pond outbursts can reach between ~6 and 47 km downstream, impacting the remote settlement of Lunana. Our results highlight the need to better quantify variability in supraglacial water storage and its potential to generate GLOFs, as climate warms.

Ridge B is one of the least studied areas in Antarctica but has been considered to be a potential location for the oldest ice on Earth. Among important parameters for calculating where very old ice may exist, geothermal heat flux (GHF) is critical but poorly understood. Here, GHF is determined by quantifying the transitions between dry and wet basal conditions using a radioglaciological method applied to airborne radio-echo sounding data. GHF is then constrained by a thermodynamic model matched to the transitions. The results show that GHF in Ridge B varies locally and ranges from 48.5 to 65.1 mW m−2, with an average value of 58.0 mW m−2, which is consistent with the current known GHF constrained by subglacial lakes and derived from Vostok ice core temperature measurements. Our work highlights the value of considering local GHF when locating the oldest ice in this potential region or other regions.

At high elevations on the Greenland ice sheet meltwater percolates and refreezes in place, and hence does not contribute to mass loss. However, meltwater generation and associated surface runoff is occurring from increasingly higher altitudes, causing changes in firn stratigraphy that have led to the presence of near-surface ice slabs. These ice slabs force meltwater to flow laterally instead of percolating downwards. Here we present a simple, physics-based quasi-2-D model to simulate lateral meltwater runoff and superimposed ice (SI) formation on top of ice slabs. Using an Eulerian Darcy flow scheme, the model calculates how far meltwater can travel within a melt season and when it appears at the snow surface. Results show that lateral flow is a highly efficient runoff mechanism, as lateral outflow exceeds locally generated meltwater in all model gridcells, with total meltwater discharge sometimes reaching more than 30 times the average amount of in situ generated melt. SI formation, an important process in the formation and thickening of the ice slabs, can retain up to 40% of the available meltwater, and generally delays the appearance of visible runoff. Validating the model against field- or remote-sensing data remains challenging, but the results presented here are a first step towards a more comprehensive understanding and description of the hydrological system in the accumulation zone of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet.

Runoff from heavily glacierised catchments, its seasonality and the contribution from different storage units are highly relevant for assessing the seasonal and long-term water supply and flood prediction. Modelling studies on runoff from such basins often use simulated meteorological input (e.g. downscaling products) based on remote observations. We investigate the contribution of snow, firn and ice to runoff in the Vernagtferner basin (Ötztal Alps) from 2020 to 2022, using a physical modelling chain driven by a local observation network. We use the SNOWPACK model to simulate snow/ice development at observation sites and the Alpine3D model to calculate accumulation and melt at the catchment scale. Basin discharge is estimated using a gridded version of the HBV-ETH model. This approach largely reproduces observed glacier mass balances, while modelled and measured basin discharge are in good agreement. Snowmelt dominates discharge in the early melt season, while ice melt becomes increasingly important during summer. This is in strong contrast to the near-equilibrium mass balances in the 1980s, when ice melt played a minor role for annual discharge. The strong reduction of the accumulation area leads to a fundamental change from a snowmelt regime to an ice melt regime, which is especially pronounced in 2022.

Sub-glacial canyon features up to 580 m deep between flat terraces were identified beneath Devon Ice Cap during a 2023 radar echo sounding (RES) survey. The largest canyon connects a hypothesized brine network near the Devon Ice Cap summit with the marine-terminating Sverdrup outlet glacier. This canyon represents a probable drainage route for the hypothesized water system. Radar bed reflectivity is consistently 30 dB lower along the canyon floor than on the terraces, contradicting the signature expected for sub-glacial water. We compare these data with backscattering simulations to demonstrate that the reflectivity pattern may be topographically induced. Our simulated results indicated a 10 m wide canal-like water feature is unlikely along the canyon floor, but smaller features may be difficult to detect via RES. We calculated basal temperature profiles using a 2D finite difference method and found the floor may be up to 18°C warmer than the terraces. However, temperatures remain below the pressure melting point, and there is limited evidence that the canyon floor supports a connected drainage system between the DIC summit and Sverdrup Glacier. The terrain beneath Devon Ice Cap demonstrates limitations for RES. Future studies should evaluate additional correction methods near complex terrain, such as RES simulation as we demonstrate here.

Observations of glacier melt and runoff are of fundamental interest in the study of glaciers and their interactions with their environment. Considerable recent interest has developed around distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), a sensing technique which utilizes Rayleigh backscatter in fiber optic cables to measure the seismo-acoustic wavefield in high spatial and temporal resolution. Here, we present data from a month-long, 9 km DAS deployment extending through the ablation and accumulation zones on Rhonegletscher, Switzerland, during the 2020 melt season. While testing several types of machine learning (ML) models, we establish a regression problem, using the DAS data as the dependent variable, to infer the glacier discharge observed at a proglacial stream gauge. We also compare two predictive models that only depend on meteorological station data. We find that the seismo-acoustic wavefield recorded by DAS can be utilized to infer proglacial discharge. Models using DAS data outperform the two models trained on meteorological data with mean absolute errors of 0.64, 2.25 and 2.72 m3 s−1, respectively. This study demonstrates the ability of in situ glacier DAS to be used for quantifying proglacial discharge and points the way to a new approach to measuring glacier runoff.

On the Greenland Ice Sheet, hydrofracture connects the supraglacial and subglacial hydrologic systems, coupling surface runoff dynamics and ice velocity. In recent decades, the growth of low-permeability ice slabs in the wet snow zone has expanded Greenland's runoff zone, but observations suggest that surface-to-bed connections are rare, because meltwater drains through crevasses into the porous firn beneath ice slabs. However, there is little quantitative evidence confirming the absence of surface-to-bed fracture propagation. Here, we use poromechanics to investigate whether water-filled crevasses in ice slabs can propagate vertically through an underlying porous firn layer. Based on numerical simulations, we develop an analytical estimate of the water injection-induced effective stress in the firn given the water level in the crevasse, ice slab thickness, and firn properties. We find that the firn layer substantially reduces the system's vulnerability to hydrofracture because much of the hydrostatic stress is accommodated by a change in pore pressure, rather than being transmitted to the solid skeleton. This result suggests that surface-to-bed hydrofracture will not occur in ice slab regions until all pore space proximal to the initial flaw has been filled with solid ice.

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations and ground-based timelapse photography obtained over the record-high 2019/2020 melt season are combined to characterise the flexure and fracture behaviour of a previously formed doline on George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The GNSS timeseries shows a downward vertical displacement of the doline centre with respect to the doline rim of ~60 cm in response to loading from a central meltwater lake. The GNSS data also show a tens-of-days episode of rapid-onset, exponentially decaying horizontal displacement, where the horizontal distance between the doline rim and its centre increases by ~70 cm. We interpret this event as the initiation and/or widening of a fracture, aided by stress perturbations associated with meltwater loading in the doline basin. Viscous flexure modelling indicates that the meltwater loading generates tensile surface stresses exceeding 75 kPa. This, together with our timelapse photos of circular fractures around the doline, suggests the first such documentation of meltwater-loading-induced ‘ring fracture’ formation on an ice shelf, equivalent to the fracture type proposed as part of the chain-reaction lake drainage process involved in the 2002 breakup of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.

Glacier surges are opportunities to study large amplitude changes in ice velocities and accompanying links to subglacial hydrology. Although the surge phase is generally explained as a disruption in the glacier's ability to drain water from the bed, the extent and duration of this disruption remain difficult to observe. Here we present a combination of in situ and remotely sensed observations of subglacial water discharge and evacuation during the latter half of an active surge and subsequent quiescent period. Our data reveal intermittently efficient subglacial drainage prior to surge termination, showing that glacier surges can persist in the presence of channel-like subglacial drainage and that successive changes in subglacial drainage efficiency can modulate active phase ice dynamics at timescales shorter than the surge cycle. Our observations favor an explanation of fast ice flow sustained through an out-of-equilibrium drainage system and a basal water surplus rather than binary switching between states in drainage efficiency.

Surface height changes above three previously undetected subglacial lakes in northeastern Greenland are documented using CryoSat, DEMs and ICESat-2. Between 7 February and 6 March 2012, the central ice region (22.6 km2) above the largest lake dropped by ~37 m followed by a further drop of 12 m in the following 29 days. This implies a subglacial water outflow, or jökulhlaup, of at least 1 km3 at rates of hundreds of cubic meters per second. A comparable outflow occurred again between 23 July and 15 September 2019, with smaller outflows in the fall of 2014 and 2016. In contrast, a second smaller subglacial lake at a higher elevation had two subglacial outbursts of ~0.3 km3 in 2012 and 2019 but the lake filling was gradual and not strongly seasonal or episodic. Water remained in both lakes after the outflows but this may not be the case for the third smallest and lowest subglacial lake. While there appears to be some hydrological link between the three lakes, the flux of water moving under the ice in this area appears to be larger than would be expected from local summer melt. However, the source of the excess water remains uncertain.

The number of glacial lakes has grown globally concurrently with the retreat of glaciers in the last few decades, increasing the risk of potentially hazardous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and posing a threat to downstream communities. Norway has several known ice-dammed lakes that produce repeated GLOFs but as we show here, the existing GLOF database is incomplete and needs to be improved through continuous monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes. This study examines the case of an ice cap in central Norway hosting at least four drainage-prone lakes. We reconstruct the sequence of lake drainage events through a combination of remote sensing, ground-truthing and citizen science while scrutinising the applicability of the PlanetScope imagery vs Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 OLI products. As opposed to the Landsat imagery that often fails to resolve even the largest glacial lakes of Tystigbreen, both PlanetScope and Sentinel-2 are helpful in identifying previously unrecognised glacial lakes and undocumented drainage events. Our analysis suggests that a fusion of the two satellite products may be beneficial for automated tracking of glacial lake changes. We also demonstrate that local knowledge and systematic involvement of citizens in data collection have a potential to enrich GLOF databases.

Subglacial hydrology models struggle to reproduce seasonal drainage patterns that are consistent with observed subglacial water pressures and surface velocities. We modify the standard sheet-flow parameterization within a coupled sheet–channel subglacial drainage model to smoothly transition between laminar and turbulent flow based on the locally computed Reynolds number in a physically consistent way (the ‘transition’ model). We compare the transition model to standard laminar and turbulent models to assess the role of the sheet-flow parameterization in reconciling observed and modelled water pressures under idealized and realistic forcing. Relative to the turbulent model, the laminar and transition models improve seasonal simulations by increasing winter water pressure and producing a more prominent late-summer water pressure minimum. In contrast to the laminar model, the transition model remains consistent with its own internal assumptions across all flow regimes. Based on the internal consistency of the transition model and its improved performance relative to the standard turbulent model, we recommend its use for transient simulations of subglacial drainage.