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Cannabis use increases the risk of psychosis, but cannabis-based medicinal products may provide additional therapeutic opportunities. Decriminalisation of cannabis has led to wider availability in certain jurisdictions, while in the UK regulated medicinal preparations are not readily accessible. A more balanced approach could reduce harms while maximising potential therapeutic benefits.
How did women come to be seen as 'at-risk' for HIV? In the early years of the AIDS crisis, scientific and public health experts questioned whether women were likely to contract HIV in significant numbers and rolled out a response that effectively excluded women. Against a linear narrative of scientific discovery and progress, Risk and Resistance shows that it was the work of feminist lawyers and activists who altered the legal and public health response to the AIDS epidemic. Feminist AIDS activists and their allies took to the streets, legislatures, administrative agencies, and courts to demand the recognition of women in the HIV response. Risk and Resistance recovers a key story in feminist legal history – one of strategy, struggle, and competing feminist visions for a just and healthy society. It offers a clear and compelling vision of how social movements have the capacity to transform science in the service of legal change.
Strongyloidiasis, caused by Strongyloides stercoralis, is a neglected parasitic disease and a major global public health issue. This infection exhibits diverse clinical manifestations that, along with the high rates of asymptomatic cases and low-sensitivity diagnostic methods, contribute to the underreporting of the disease. With an estimated 600 million people infected worldwide, this disease is particularly prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions with poor sanitary conditions, which includes Brazil. Understanding the epidemiology of the disease is essential for the development of control strategies, but the lack of comprehensive data makes it difficult to identify the real impact of the infection, thus leading to underreporting and a lack of awareness of its severity on public health. Given this scenario, this literature review aimed to summarize the reported prevalence and associated factors of strongyloidiasis in Brazil. A total of 33 articles published between 2005 and 2025 were retrieved from PubMed, Science Direct, Scielo, and LiLacs databases using keywords related to strongyloidiasis in Brazil. The data collected in this review indicate that the majority of the published studies are concentrated in the Southeast region of Brazil, with the state of Minas Gerais accounting for the highest number of publications. It was also observed that the prevalence of strongyloidiasis is underestimated due to diagnostic challenges and high rates of false negatives, especially among asymptomatic patients. In addition, the scarcity of specific studies on the disease in Brazil limits the understanding of its true incidence, underscoring the need for further research.
Human babesiosis is a disease transmitted by the bite of an infected tick or via blood transfusions involving contaminated blood products; in humans, it can lead to severe complications and even death, depending on the clinical history, age and health status of the affected patient. Babesiosis is caused by members of the Babesia spp., protozoan parasites whose life cycle includes sexual reproduction in the arthropod vector and asexual reproduction in the mainly mammalian host. Cases of human babesiosis have been rare, but there are increasing reports of human babesiosis associated with climatic changes affecting the geographical distribution of the parasite and tick vector, enhanced vector–human interactions and improved awareness of the disease in humans. Diagnostics and treatment options for humans are based around discoveries in veterinary research, such as point-of-care testing in cases of bovine babesiosis, and include direct diagnosis by blood smears, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technologies, and indirect diagnosis by ELISA, immunofluorescence tests (IFAT) and fluorescent in situ hybridisation. Treatment involves a combination of drugs such as azithromycin and atovaquone, or clindamycin and quinine, but more effective options are being investigated, including, but not limited to, trans-chalcones and tafenoquine. Improved surveillance, awareness and diagnosis, as well as advanced technologies to interrupt vector–host interactions, are crucial in managing the increased threat posed by this once-neglected disease in humans.
There is a substantial body of literature on environmental risk associated with schizophrenia. Most research has largely been conducted in Europe and North America, with little representation of the rest of the world; hence generalisability of findings is questionable. For this reason, we performed a mapping review of studies on environmental risk for schizophrenia spectrum disorders, recording the country where they were conducted, and we linked our findings with publicly available data to identify correlates with the uneven global distribution. Our aim was to evaluate how universal is the ‘common knowledge’ of environmental risk for psychosis collating the availability of evidence across different countries and to generate suggestions for future research identifying gaps in evidence.
Methods
We performed a systematic search and mapping of studies in the PubMed and PsycINFO electronic databases reporting on exposure to environmental risk for schizophrenia including obstetric complications, paternal age, migration, urbanicity, childhood trauma, and cannabis use and subsequent onset of schizophrenia spectrum disorders. This search focused on articles published from the date of the first available publication until 31 May 2023. We recorded the country where they were conducted. We downloaded publicly available data on population size, measures of wealth, medical provisions, research investment, and of quality research outputs per country and performed regression analyses of each predictor with the number of studies and recruited cases in each country.
Results
We identified 308 publications that included a sample size of 445,000 patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. The majority were conducted in northern Europe and North America, with large parts of the world totally unrepresented. In the associations between the number of environmental risk studies for schizophrenia with potential predictors, we found that neither population nor wealth or research investment were strong predictors of research outputs in the field. Interestingly, the stronger correlations were found for number of researchers per population and for indicators of top-end scientific achievements, such as number of Nobel laureates per country.
Conclusions
Our results demonstrate a gap of knowledge due to the underrepresentation of studies on environmental risk of schizophrenia spectrum disorders in large parts of the world. This has implications not only in the generalisability of any findings from research conducted in the Northern hemisphere but also in our ability to progress in efforts to make causal inferences about biological pathways to schizophrenia. These findings reinforce the need to focus research on populations that are underrepresented in research and underserved in health care.
Suicide rates in the United States have been increasing, necessitating an understanding of demographic variations by ethnicity, age, sex and method to inform effective prevention strategies.
Objective
To dissect suicide rates in the US population from 2001 to 2023 by age, sex, ethnicity, and method.
Methods
This retrospective observational study utilized suicide data and population statistics from the CDC’s WISQARS database for the years 2001 (n = 30,418), 2018 (n = 48,132), 2020 (n = 45,721) and 2023 (n = 49,014). Cases were stratified by age, sex, ethnicity, and suicide method to assess trends and demographic differences.
Results
From 2001 to 2023, the overall US suicide rate rose from 10.7 to 14.6 per 100,000, with a temporary decrease in 2019 and 2020 (14.4 and 13.8, respectively). The primary driver of the increase was firearm-related suicides among White males, contributing 25.8% of the rise from 2001 to 2018 and 51.6% from 2020 to 2023. Decline between 2018 and 2020 was mainly due to reductions in firearm and drug-related suicides among White males, but firearm suicides surged again from 2020 to 2023. Additionally, firearm suicides among ethnic minorities, especially Black/African-American males, accounted for 14.0% of the increase during 2020–2023. Drug-related suicides also increased by 8.6% among White females aged 45 and older in the same period.
Conclusions
Firearm suicides are the leading factor in the changing suicide rates in the United States from 2001 to 2023, alongside rising drug-related suicides among White females. These trends highlight the necessity for targeted prevention efforts that consider demographic-specific factors and method accessibility.
The environment shapes the risk of psychosis. In particular, urbanicity, deprivation or inequality, migrant density and cannabis availability may not only influence psychosis incidence, but also the characteristics of individuals who arrive at clinical services. This study examined how socioeconomic factors influence the incidence and characteristics of cases of First-Episode Psychosis (FEP).
Methods
We analysed prospective data collected from the FEP early detection programme of Emilia-Romagna, a high-income Italian region. Participants were 1240 individuals aged 18–35 years, who presented at the public healthcare services for a FEP. Exposures were derived from area-level data of 331 municipalities. We used population density, socioeconomic deprivation, educational deprivation, economic inequality, migrant density (proportion of migrants), frequent cannabis use (proportion of people aged 15–19 years old who reported frequent cannabis use). Outcome measures were FEP incidence (cases/100 000 inhabitants at risk per year) and characteristics (age of onset, migrant status, unemployment, substance use, treatment lag [DUP], family and resource problems). We reviewed pertinent literature, and formulated a Directed Acyclic Graph to present causal assumptions and provide adjustment sets for Bayesian spatial and multilevel models of social causation. To compare the effects of different exposures, we computed Average Marginal Effects and report the outcome changes that correspond to one standard deviation change of the exposure, incidence rate ratios (IRR) or odds ratios (OR).
Results
The exposures and incidence of FEP displayed heterogeneous spatial distribution, with no spatially organized pattern. Accordingly, incidence and characteristics were best modelled as non-spatial, three-level hierarchical models. The incidence of FEP was influenced by population density (IRR, 1.14; 95% CrI, 1.03; 1.29), educational deprivation (IRR, 1.15; 95% CrI, 1.02; 1.31) and frequent cannabis use (IRR, 1.31; 95% CrI, 0.98; 1.82), more than socioeconomic deprivation. Higher migrant density in an area shortened the DUP on average by 3.4 months (95% CrI, −1.122; 0.76), while an increase of cannabis use of one standard deviation increased the DUP of 12.9 months (95% CrI, −2.86; 6229). Socioeconomic deprivation increased the likelihood of FEP cases being substance users (OR, 1.12; 95% CrI, 1.01; 1.26), while population density decreased it (OR, 0.91; 95% CrI, 0.83; 1.00).
Conclusions
Area-level socioeconomic features affect both the incidence and the characteristics of FEP, including the probability of individual being migrants, substance users or having a different DUP. Educational deprivation may function as a proxy for culture- or cognitive-related factors. Area-level socioeconomic data may inform public healthcare strategies for early identification and availability of tertiary clinical services.
The British Paediatric Surveillance Unit of the UK Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health contacts participating consultant paediatricians each month to survey whether particular rare conditions or events have been seen in their services. This national surveillance of rare paediatric events has allowed a large amount of research into multiple paediatric conditions. In 2009, the Royal College of Psychiatrists established a similar system – the Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Surveillance System (CAPSS) – to survey consultant psychiatrists in UK and Ireland. Since many conditions involve mental and physical health features, seven studies have been run using reporting to both systems, with simultaneous surveillance across both paediatricians and psychiatrists. Given the desire by policymakers, commissioners and clinicians for well-integrated physical and mental healthcare (‘joined-up working’), and if the surveillance systems were functioning well, the CAPSS Executive expected high rates of parallel reporting of individual patients to the two systems. The current study synthesises the rates of parallel reporting of cases to those two systems. We assimilate rates of parallel reporting across the seven studies using figures that have already been published, and by contacting contributing research groups directly where the relevant figures are not currently published. No new primary data were collected.
Results
Of the 1211 confirmed cases, 47 (3.9%) were reported by both psychiatrists and paediatricians. No parallel reporting occurred in four of the seven studies.
Clinical implications
Our findings raise questions about whether joined-up working in mental and physical healthcare is happening in practice. Research into challenges to obtaining comprehensive surveillance will help epidemiologists improve their use of surveillance and control for biases.
UK Biobank (UKB) is a large-scale, prospective resource offering significant opportunities for mental health research. Data include genetic and biological data, healthcare linkage, and mental health enhancements. Challenges arise from incomplete linkage of some sources and the incomplete coverage for enhancements, which also occur at different times post-baseline. We searched for publications using UKB for mental health research from 2016 to 2023 to describe and inspire future use. Papers were classified by mental health topic, ‘additional’ aspects, and the data used to define the mental health topic. We identified 480 papers, with 338 focusing on mental health disorder topics (affective, anxiety, psychotic, multiple, and transdiagnostic). The most commonly studied disorder was depression (41%). The most common single method of ascertaining mental disorder status was the Mental Health Questionnaire (26%), with genetic risk, for example, using polygenic risk scores, also frequent (21%). Common additional aspects included brain imaging, gene–environment interaction, and the relationship with physical health. The review demonstrates the value of UKB to mental health research. We explore the strengths and weaknesses, producing resources informed by the review. A strength is the flexibility: conventional epidemiological studies are present, but also genomics, imaging, and other tools for understanding mental health. A major weakness is selection effects. UKB continues to hold potential, especially with additional data continuing to become available.
Scrub typhus is a mite-borne infection, largely affecting rural populations in many parts of Asia. This cohort study explored socio-demographic, behavioural, and spatial risk factors at different levels of endemicity. 2206 rural residents from 37 villages in Tamil Nadu, South India, underwent a questionnaire survey and blood sampling at baseline and annually over 2 years to detect sero-conversion. Satellite images were used for visual land use classification. Local sero-prevalence was estimated using 5602 baseline blood samples.
Two hundred and seventy cases of seroconversions occurred during 3629 person-years (incidence rate 78/1000, 95%CI 67, 91). Older age was associated with scrub typhus in crude but not in multivariable analysis adjusting for socio-economic factors. By contrast, the increased risk in females compared to males (RR 1.4) was unaffected by adjusting for confounders. In multivariable analysis, agricultural and related outdoor activities were only weakly associated with scrub typhus. However, agricultural activities were strongly associated with scrub typhus if local sero-prevalence was low, but not if it was high. Females were at a higher risk than males in high-prevalence areas but not in low-prevalence areas. To conclude, agricultural activities were not strongly associated with scrub typhus. Transmission within human settlements may predominate in highly endemic settings.
Risk factors for Eimeria infections are well documented in farm and pet animals, but studies focusing on wildlife species are less common. This research aimed to investigate the impact of selected demographic and environmental factors on the prevalence of Eimeria in the European hare (Lepus europaeus). Additionally, we analysed whether Eimeria infection affected the behaviour of hares by examining the relationship between infection status and the likelihood of a hare being killed by a vehicle at a hotspot for road mortality. Between 11 February 2022 and 24 June 2024, we collected 22 hare carcasses that had been killed in traffic along an 83.9 km monitoring route in central Bohemia, Czech Republic, to evaluate Eimeria prevalence in relation to factors such as age, hare density, distance to the nearest water source and rainfall over the previous 3 months. Contrary to our expectations, we found a higher prevalence of Eimeria in adult hares compared to juveniles. We propose that this outcome may be due to the high mortality rates among leverets and juvenile hares, which removes susceptible individuals from the population early on. The effects of the other factors examined were not significant. In conclusion, our study revealed that Eimeria infection did not contribute to the clustering of hare–vehicle collisions. We emphasize the importance of studying risk factors in wildlife species across different ecological contexts. Our findings challenge the general assumption that age negatively influences Eimeria prevalence.
Epidemiological studies on catatonia encounter several methodological challenges, and as a result, the historical epoch and clinical context must be carefully considered when estimating its incidence and prevalence. Over the past 70 years, the reported incidence and prevalence of catatonia have significantly declined, influenced by several key historical developments, including the widespread use of antipsychotic medications, shifts in diagnostic criteria, advances in psychiatric care, and changes in the clinical recognition of the disorder. The reclassification of catatonic symptoms as antipsychotic-induced motor side effects, along with the decentralization of psychiatric care and shorter patient observation periods, contributed to this decline. This chapter explores the limitations of epidemiological research on catatonia, particularly regarding its prevalence across diverse patient populations. It provides a detailed analysis of catatonia’s incidence and prevalence in different epochs, various clinical settings, considering factors such as sex ratios, age distribution, ethnicity, and recurrence rates, supported by the most recent scientific evidence.
Few studies have examined attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms in middle- and older-aged adults. We aim to examine the phenotypic expression of ADHD symptoms in these age groups.
Methods
This study comprised a random sample (N = 1,562) from the US Health and Retirement Study 2016, a representative US sample aged 50 years and over. ADHD symptoms were assessed based on the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale.
Results
In the primary analysis, 10 competing confirmatory factor analytic models of ADHD symptoms in middle- and older-aged adults were compared. The best-fitting model was hierarchical with a general ADHD factor at the apex and underneath symptom factors of inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity (ꭓ2 = 319.34, df = 91.71, P = 0.00, TLI = 0.98, CFI = 0.96, RMSEA = 0.04, 95% CI = 0.04–0.05). In complementary analyses, this model was a satisfactory fit to the data: (1) in individuals without a history of cognitive impairment or dementia, and when the general ADHD factor was specified to load on (2) cognitive function, (3) depressive symptoms (which showed adequate fit), and (4) ADHD polygenic scores, (5) in middle- and older-aged adults, and (6) when weighted to represent the US population.
Conclusions
These results imply a hierarchical representation of ADHD symptoms in middle- and older-aged adults consisting of a general factor at the apex with neurocognitive and genetic correlates and underneath symptom factors of inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity. Collectively, this model offers a novel framework to study the mechanisms of ADHD symptoms in middle- and older-aged adults and points to treatment targets.
Specific phobias are common in the community, and much is known from epidemiological surveys about their subtypes and sex ratio.
Aims
To determine the subtypes and sex ratio in a treatment-seeking sample of people with a specific phobia.
Method
Patients with a specific phobia were identified by a retrospective search of clinical case records from patient notes in electronic health records at the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (the largest secondary mental healthcare provider in Europe).
Results
We identified 1017 patients over 5 years as having a specific phobia. The adult female to male sex frequency ratio for having any specific phobia was 3.9, with the ratio of specific phobia subtypes ranging from 2.4 (natural environment) to 8.2 (animal). The child female to male ratio of specific phobia subtypes ranged from 0.7 (natural environment) to 1.8 (other subtypes). Phobia of vomiting was the most common specific phobia presenting in both adults (n = 161, 17.8% of all specific phobias) and children (n = 26, 23.4%). In adults with a phobia of vomiting, the female to male ratio was 9.1 compared with 3.4 in all other specific phobias, and 4.2 versus 0.98 for children.
Conclusions
There is a stark contrast between the apparent prevalence of phobia of vomiting in epidemiological surveys and being the most common presentation clinically. A very high female to male ratio in phobia of vomiting and animals in adults seeking treatment is also in contrast to findings in the community. This has implications for clinician training and public education.
Strongyloides stercoralis has historically dominated research and control efforts for strongyloidiasis in both medical and veterinary fields. This has obscured the significance of other Strongyloides species infecting humans and their closest companions, dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) and cats (Felis catus). This review synthesized clinical and epidemiologic evidence on these neglected agents of human and companion animal strongyloidiasis and outlined priorities for future research. Our aim is to raise awareness of these understudied species and promote research to clarify their medical and veterinary public health significance. Targeted species-specific surveillance using molecular-genomic and advanced morphological tools is essential to uncover the true burden of these infections and inform strategies for their control and eventual elimination.
About one-third of South African women have clinically significant symptoms of postpartum depression (PPD). Several socio-demographic risk factors for PPD exist, but data on medical and obstetric risk factors remain scarce for low- and middle-income countries and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to estimate the proportion of women with PPD and investigate socio-demographic, medical and obstetric risk factors for PPD among women receiving private medical care in South Africa (SA).
Methods
In this longitudinal cohort study, we analysed reimbursement claims from beneficiaries of an SA medical insurance scheme who delivered a child between 2011 and 2020. PPD was defined as a new International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision diagnosis of depression within 365 days postpartum. We estimated the frequency of women with a diagnosis of PPD. We explored several medical and obstetric risk factors for PPD, including pre-existing conditions, such as HIV and polycystic ovary syndrome, and conditions diagnosed during pregnancy and labour, such as gestational diabetes, pre-term delivery and postpartum haemorrhage. Using a multivariable modified Poisson model, we estimated adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for factors associated with PPD.
Results
Of the 47,697 participants, 2,380 (5.0%) were diagnosed with PPD. The cumulative incidence of PPD increased from 0.8% (95% CI 0.7–0.9) at 6 weeks to 5.5% (5.3–5.7) at 12 months postpartum. PPD risk was higher in individuals with history of depression (aRR 3.47, 95% CI [3.14–3.85]), preterm delivery (1.47 [1.30–1.66]), PCOS (1.37 [1.09–1.72]), hyperemesis gravidarum (1.32 [1.11–1.57]), gestational hypertension (1.30 [1.03–1.66]) and postpartum haemorrhage (1.29 [0.91–1.85]). Endometriosis, HIV, gestational diabetes, foetal stress, perineal laceration, elective or emergency C-section and preeclampsia were not associated with a higher risk of PPD.
Conclusions
The PPD diagnosis rate was lower than anticipated, based on the PPD prevalence of previous studies, indicating a potential diagnostic gap in SA’s private sector. Identified risk factors could inform targeted PPD screening strategies.
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant public health concern in China. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, we analyzed trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for TB from 1990 to 2021. Over this period, HIV-negative TB showed a marked decline in ASIR (AAPC = −2.34%, 95% CI: −2.39, −2.28) and ASMR (AAPC = −0.56%, 95% CI: −0.62, −0.59). Specifically, drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB) showed reductions in both ASIR and ASMR, while multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) showed slight decreases. Conversely, extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) exhibited upward trends in both ASIR and ASMR. TB co-infected with HIV (HIV-DS-TB, HIV-MDR-TB, HIV-XDR-TB) showed increasing trends in recent years. The analysis also found an inverse correlation between ASIRs and ASMRs for HIV-negative TB and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Projections from 2022 to 2035 suggest continued increases in ASIR and ASMR for XDR-TB, HIV-DS-TB, HIV-MDR-TB, and HIV-XDR-TB. The rising burden of XDR-TB and HIV-TB co-infections presents ongoing challenges for TB control in China. Targeted prevention and control strategies are urgently needed to mitigate this burden and further reduce TB-related morbidity and mortality.
Fasciolosis, a parasitic disease of ruminants, poses significant economic and animal-health challenges in Algeria. This study aimed to assess spatial, temporal, and species-specific patterns of fasciolosis prevalence across diverse agro-climatic zones and to estimate associated economic losses. Between 2013 and 2023, eight wilayas El-Tarf, Skikda, Jijel (Region I), Blida, Mila (Region II), and M’Sila, Medea, Laghouat (Region III) were surveyed. Systematic postmortem inspections of 1,569,392 animals (349,176 cattle; 982,669 sheep; 235,639 goats; 1,882 camels; 26 horses) were performed by qualified veterinarians, with liver and bile-duct examination for Fasciola. Data on region, species, year, and season were analyzed in R 4.4.0 using ANOVA, Kruskal–Wallis, Tukey’s post hoc tests, and principal component analysis (PCA). Economic losses were calculated from condemned liver weights in Blida, Laghouat, and Jijel, converted to USD. PCA distinguished three regional prevalence profiles, with PC1 (77.7% variance) separating overall prevalence levels. Region I exhibited the highest mean prevalence (2.47%), peaking at 3.54% in 2018 – significantly greater than Region II (1.39%) and Region III (1.96%) (p < 0.01). Cattle showed the greatest infection rate (mean 4.14%), significantly higher than sheep (1.32%; p < 0.001) and goats (0.25%; p < 0.001), while horses and camels remained uninfected. Seasonal analysis revealed highest prevalence in autumn and winter (≈2.1%) versus spring (≈1.5%). Economic losses totaled USD 10.6 million in Blida, USD 1.0 million in Laghouat, and USD 142.2 million in Jijel over the study period. Targeted control strategies, adapted to regional and seasonal risk patterns, are essential. Future work should investigate environmental and management factors driving regional differences and evaluate cost-effective interventions to mitigate fasciolosis impact in Algerian livestock.
Previous studies on the association between fruit juice consumption and type 2 diabetes remain controversial, which might be due to heterogeneity in the polygenic risk score (PRS) for type 2 diabetes. We examined the association between fruit juice and type 2 diabetes by PRS for type 2 diabetes. We investigated whether fruit juice influences type 2 diabetes risk differently among individuals with varying genetic risks. Data from the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort (J-MICC) study, a cross-sectional study of 13 769 Japanese individuals was used for our analysis. The primary exposure was the frequency of fruit juice, categorised as do not drink, less than 1 cup per day or more than 1 cup per day. We selected PGS002379, a PRS for type 2 diabetes developed using East Asian populations. The primary outcome was physician-diagnosed type 2 diabetes, reported by participants. The consumption of fruit juice was significantly inversely associated with type 2 diabetes in the group with a high PRS for type 2 diabetes (OR: 0·78, 95 % CI: 0·65, 0·93 for < 1 cup/d and OR: 0·54, 95 % CI: 0·30, 0·96 for > 1/d), but this association was not observed in the low PRS group. Fruit juice consumption was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes, especially in genetically high-risk populations for type 2 diabetes.
People with opioid use disorder (OUD) have substantially higher standardised mortality rates compared with the general population. However, lack of individualised prognostic information presents challenges in personalisation of addiction treatment delivery.
Aims
To develop and validate the first prognostic models to estimate 6-month all-cause and drug-related mortality risk for people diagnosed with OUD using indicators recorded at baseline assessment in addiction services in England.
Method
Thirteen candidate prognostic variables, including sociodemographic, injecting status and health and mental health factors, were identified from nationally linked addiction treatment, hospital admission and death records from 1 April 2013 to 1 April 2022. Multivariable Cox regression models were developed with a fractional polynomial approach for continuous variables, and missing data were addressed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Validation was undertaken using bootstrapping methods. Discrimination was assessed using Harrel’s C and D statistics alongside examination of observed-to-predicted event rates and calibration curve slopes.
Results
Data were available for 236 064 people with OUD, with 2427 deaths due to any cause, including 1289 due to drug-related causes. Both final models demonstrated good optimism-adjusted discrimination and calibration, with all-cause and drug-related models, respectively, demonstrating Harrell’s C statistics of 0.73 (95% CI 0.71–0.75) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.72–0.76), D-statistics of 1.01 (95% CI 0.95–1.08) and 1.07 (95% CI 0.98–1.16) and calibration slopes of 1.01 (95% CI 0.95–1.08) and 1.01 (95% CI 0.94–1.10).
Conclusions
We developed and internally validated Roberts’ OUD mortality risk, with the first models to accurately quantify individualised absolute 6-month mortality risks in people with OUD presenting to addiction services. Independent validation is warranted to ensure these models have the optimal utility to assist wider future policy, commissioning and clinical decision-making.