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Exploring the already observable impacts of climate change, this chapter features stories from regions including Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean, amongst others. Ramon Apla-on, a farmer from the Philippines, describes how unpredictable weather patterns affect agriculture, while Isaac Nemuta, a Maasai pastoralist from Kenya, discusses the severe droughts impacting livestock. Nadia Cazaubon from Saint Lucia highlights marine impacts such as coral bleaching. These personal accounts, supported by scientific data, underscore the urgency of addressing current climate realities affecting millions. The chapter illustrates how climate change is no longer a future threat but a present crisis requiring immediate action.
Chapter 3 on Attribution Science delves deeper into the science that establishes causal links between climate change, specific sources of emissions, and its impacts. The authors illustrate how these scientific developments are enhancing our ability to pinpoint the causes of climate impacts, an evolution crucial to a range of procedural and substantive issues that may arise in climate litigation. The authors also delve into specific regional impacts and showcase how attribution science has illuminated the ways in which different parts of the world are experiencing and responding to the unique challenges posed by a changing climate. This includes case studies in Africa, the Americas, Europe, the South Pacific, and Asia. The authors conclude by addressing the limitations and challenges in the field of attribution science before explaining how it is nevertheless poised to play an ever-more critical role in our collective response to climate change.
This article is an introduction and guide to investigating past relationships between climate and human behavior. Improving understanding of these relationships is essential as humanity confronts the challenges of our warming world. However, how to investigate potential climatic influences on human behavior in the past is rarely presented or discussed as a distinct mode of inquiry. This article aims to fill this gap by providing a practical tool kit for students, archaeologists, anthropologists, and other historically focused social scientists. It is structured as a series of seven key steps to creating a research design for a climate and human behavior study, from identifying research questions to presenting results. Most of the conceptual models, methods, data, and examples provided have worldwide relevance and are informed by the long history of climate and human behavior studies in the North American Southwest. By expanding competence in this domain, we can enrich documentation and interpretations of the past and insights will emerge that will contribute to preparing for and responding to our warming world.
This article examines the adverse impact of the La Niña phenomenon in Argentina from 1988 to 1989 on the country’s economy, which led to a profound crisis. The severe drought significantly affected agricultural exports, exacerbating poverty and inflation. The resulting economic downturn was triggered in part by the drought and precipitated a political crisis, ultimately resulting in the resignation of President Alfonsín and paving the way for the election of Carlos Menem as Argentina’s president. This study sheds light on the intricate interplay between climatic events, economic performance, and political dynamics, highlighting the vulnerability of countries heavily reliant on agriculture and emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate the socioeconomic consequences of natural disasters.
This article investigates the global history of dryland modernisation through the case study of southern Italy. From the early twentieth century to the fascist years, several intellectuals, scientists, and politicians reinterpreted the apparent and long-standing backwardness of this region as fundamentally due to its hydrology and climate: southern Italy was rediscovered as a dry land, formally part of Italy and civilised Europe and yet environmentally closer to extra-European spaces of empire. The article shows how Italian agrarian scientists mobilised this ‘environmental Otherness’ of the Italian south as the key to developing a ‘dryland’ science alternative to that of ‘humid’ northern Italy and continental Europe. Instead, this ‘dryland’ approach to modernisation grounded southern Italy within a vast transimperial network defined by the co-production and circulation of knowledge and technologies allowing the adaptation of modern and intensive food production to semi-arid regions. As such, the article argues that Italian agrarian scientists redefined the spatial order of the Italian south in a transimperial sense, embracing its environmental Otherness as a vantage point for its rehabilitation within Italy’s nation-building.
Between 2022 and 2024, Somalia’s ongoing drought claimed more than 70 000 lives, with nearly 40% of these deaths among children under 5. This tragic loss highlights the urgent need for action to address the disproportionate impact of the drought on Somalia’s most vulnerable populations. The 2022 drought, which affected nearly half of the country’s population, brought Somalia to the brink of famine, leaving many families without essential resources and health care, particularly in the southern-central regions like Banadir, Bay, and Lower Shabelle. Despite narrowly avoiding famine through the efforts of the Somali government and international partners, the consequences of the drought continue to devastate communities. The study “From Insight to Action: An Update on Mortality Patterns in Somalia” reveals that most excess deaths were children, presenting not only a tragedy for families but also a long-term social and economic setback for the nation. WHO and UNICEF stress the need for a long-term approach to address Somalia’s vulnerabilities, emphasizing the importance of building resilient health systems, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, and empowering communities. The international community must also commit to supporting Somalia’s development to break the cycle of disaster and ensure a brighter future for the nation’s children.
The present chapter focuses on migration and displacement associated with events that are directly linked to hotter air temperatures and/or an associated lack of moisture experienced at local and regional scales: droughts, increased aridity, desertification, heat, and wildfires. With the exception of wildfires – which share many characteristics comparable to rapid-onset extreme weather events – the hazards assessed in the present chapter are gradual in their onset and impacts. Their impacts accumulate with each passing week, month, and/or year, steadily eroding the water, food and/or livelihood security of households and communities. The slow rate of onset allows exposed populations an opportunity to adjust and adapt through means that do not require changes to existing mobility practices and patterns, sometimes referred to as in situ adaptation responses. It is only after hot and/or dry conditions persist beyond a particular threshold of duration and/or severity that in situ adaptations no longer prove to be sufficient and changes in migration decision-making and outcomes emerge.
Policy and investments based on assumptions of rational economic behaviour are often blind to the deeply ingrained social and cultural dispositions that govern choices. For instance, demand-driven ideologies backing community management assume that users will manage and pay for water infrastructure they need. Public awareness campaigns communicate water-related health risks assuming that information will change behaviour. However, extensive evidence across geographies and cultures have proven otherwise. To understand individuals’ and households’ daily water practices and how they vary across different environmental and institutional contexts, we designed and implemented the water diary method in Kenya and Bangladesh. The diaries captured household water source choices and expenditures every day for a whole year, complemented by interdisciplinary analysis of climate, infrastructure, and policy. With global and national monitoring efforts being largely based on aggregate snapshots generated through infrequent surveys, we argue how such granular behavioural dynamics can better inform policy and practice for an equitable water secure future.
In this chapter, I first document the great agrarian famine of 1879–80, followed by a detailed analysis of peasants’ livelihood circumstances in the countryside of Diyarbekir, Erzurum and Van, and the politics of food and water scarcity as it impacted agricultural production and the agrarian economy. Next, I turn to the appearance of new environmental disasters in the 1880s and 1890s. These crises exacerbated conflict between local powerbrokers and peasants, and radically transformed settlement patterns within Ottoman Kurdistan. The second major section of the chapter depicts how climatic factors and the periodicity of environmental change impacted pastoralists and it includes a discussion of how climatic fluctuations affect the physiology of herd animals. I conclude this section by examining pastoralist survival strategies, and how these contributed to the growth of intercommunal tension in Kurdistan in the last decades of the nineteenth century.
In this innovative, interdisciplinary work, Zozan Pehlivan presents a new environmental perspective on intercommunal conflict, rooting slow violence in socioeconomic shifts and climatic fluctuations. From the nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries, recurrent and extreme climate disruptions became an underlying yet unacknowledged component of escalating conflict between Christian Armenian peasants and Muslim Kurdish pastoralists in Ottoman Kurdistan. By the eve of the First World War, the Ottoman state's shifting responses to these mounting tensions transformed the conflict into organized and state-sponsored violence. Pehlivan upends the 'desert-sown' thesis and establishes a new theoretical and conceptual framework drawing on climate science, agronomy, and zoology. From this alternative vantage point, Pehlivan examines the impact of climate on local communities, their responses and resilience strategies, arguing that nineteenth-century ecological change had a transformative and antagonistic impact on economy, state, and society.
This Element outlines the origins and evolution of an international award-winning development intervention, index-based livestock insurance (IBLI), which scaled from a small pilot project in Kenya to a design that underpins drought risk management products and policies across Africa. General insights are provided on i) the economics of poverty, risk management, and drylands development; ii) the evolving use of modern remote sensing and data science tools in development; iii) the science of scaling; and iv) the value and challenges of integrating research with operational implementation to tackle development and humanitarian challenges in some of the world's poorest regions. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Chapter 7 covers the changing nature of dam building in Brazil during the 1990s–2010s. It argues that during this period, mobilization for social and environmental justice among dam-affected communities began to play a greater role in the county’s dam-building program and that the movement’s priorities and achievements were not uniform. Brazil’s anti-dam movement has succeeded in modifying many new dams or blocking them outright, especially in the Amazon Rainforest, but has done little to achieve justice for the still-uncompensated Indigenous communities that were displaced by the dictatorship’s reservoirs. More than thirty years after being displaced, the Avá Guarani and the Tuxá, the Indigenous communities dispossessed by Itaipu and Itaparica, respectively, are still fighting for the land the government owes them. Climate-related challenges have been a second defining element of this period. Since the late 1990s, the Brazilian hydropower sector has endured at least three significant droughts that lowered reservoir levels, curtailing output and leading to rolling blackouts. Such episodes could become more common and severe under anthropogenic global warming. Thus, while the Brazilian hydropower sector has done much to mitigate carbon emissions, the impacts of anthropogenic warming threaten to curtail the degree to which reservoirs can produce such valuable low-carbon energy.
Over the past century, average temperatures have risen a little over 1°C. This may not seem like much: after all, temperatures vary from one day to the next by much more than that, and we take it in our stride. However, over the past couple of decades we have become more aware of the rising incidence of what we call extreme events: heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, floods, severe storms. These are the signs of the times; signs, perhaps, that Mother Nature is not happy. Or is this all simply part of the natural unpredictability of the world we live in? In this chapter we look at recent extremes, along with the recent branch of climate science, Event Attribution, where we endeavour to assess any human contribution to these events. We illustrate both the nature of extreme events, and our growing understanding, with several detailed case studies.
Water deficit is one of the most important abiotic stresses constraining crop production in rapeseed. Understanding the mechanisms of adaptation to this stress is essential for the development and production of drought-tolerant genotypes. For this reason, this research study aims to investigate the importance of genetic diversity in identifying genotypes with a high degree of drought tolerance through assessing effectiveness of inter simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers on 14 genotypes of rapeseed in a factorial design. Morphological and physiological characteristics were studied after the early stages of growth; in order to evaluate the genetic diversity among genotypes, 18 different ISSR markers were used. A total of 106 clear and scalable loci were amplified, of which 60 bands (56.6%) were polymorphic. The highest polymorphism information content belonged to marker number 9 with the amount of 0.365 (85.7%). Gene variation ranged from 0.081 to 0.365 and the rapeseed genotypes were divided into three groups by cluster analysis (unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean method). The analysis of molecular variance showed that 70% of the total variation was observed within populations and 30% of this variation occurred among populations. In addition, t-test was used for comparing oil content percentage among different genotypes in control and stress levels. Adriana had the highest amount of seed oil with 36.47%, whereas Karaj 2 had the lowest amount with 27.28 and Cooper had the highest decrease in oil content percentage under stress conditions. Overall, the genotypes Likord, Hyola 401 and Sarigol 32 were identified as the most drought-tolerant.
The Namibian Swakara industry, a type of sheep farming focused on the production of lamb pelts for the fashion industry, currently faces a crisis situation. Formerly one of the most important export products from Namibia, a combination of drought, falling pelt prices and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic now threaten the survival of Swakara, the Namibian Karakul. The current crisis is articulated in extinction narratives. The potential end of Swakara farming as a way of life and a set of knowledge practices is narratively interwoven with the potential disappearance of Swakara from the Namibian landscape. Extinction narratives in the context of Swakara farming in Namibia blur the lines of human and nonhuman ways of life and their disappearance.
How has water shaped the history of a region that is bordered by ocean, brimming with ephemeral rivers, and yet prone to drought? This article explores water histories in Southern Africa over the past two hundred years. Using oral traditions, epic poetry, archival sources, and secondary anthropological and archaeological literature, I examine how Africans and Europeans related to, claimed, and used different bodies of water. In the first section I discuss how water was central to isiNguni conceptions of social and political life. In the second section I discuss how European empires used water to enclose and dispossess African land and to build hydropolitical colonial orders over the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. I conclude by reflecting on afterlives of these water histories in the present.
This chapter aims to locate the critical juncture when securitization is – from a moral point of view – not merely permitted (and thus optional) but obligatory (mandatory). This chapter argues that securitization is morally obligatory (pro tanto) when ‘must cause’ is satisfied. This is the case when would-be securitizing actors have tried relevant less harmful alternatives and when these have failed to satisfy just cause. This view is in line with supererogationism a philosophical position that sees value in keeping morality – where possible – free from prescriptive behaviour whereby every good and right generates a moral obligation. It is argued that the value of autonomy that allows relevant actors (limited) freedom to choose on how to respond to a just cause for securitization diminishes as certainty that securitization is the best response increases. Certainty increases subject to evidence that less harmful options than securitization do not work. This chapter goes on to discuss must cause in detail on six illustrative hypothetical examples of different threat types, including drought disaster, cyberattack, and climate disaster.
Explores how an increasing frequency and intensity of drought conditions is driving water scarcity in cities and presents built environment strategies for moderating drought conditions.
Soil-applied herbicides are important for controlling weeds in many crops but risk damage to susceptible rotational crops if they persist. Field studies were conducted in Powell, WY, from 2015 through 2017 to evaluate the effect of reduced water availability on soil-applied herbicide dissipation. Eight soil-applied herbicides, applied to dry bean or corn, were exposed to three season-long irrigation treatments (100%, 85%, and 70% of estimated crop evapotranspiration [ETc]) by overhead sprinkler. Soil samples were collected to a depth of 10 cm from 0 to 140 d after application, and soil herbicide concentrations were quantified using gas or liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. Herbicide concentrations were regressed over time to produce a soil half-life estimate for each herbicide and irrigation treatment. Reduced irrigation decreased dry bean yield by up to 77% and corn yield by up to 50%. After adjusting for precipitation, the lowest irrigation treatment received 78% and 76% as much water as the full irrigation treatment in 2015 and 2016, respectively. This significantly increased the soil half-life of imazethapyr but did not increase the soil half-life of atrazine, pyroxasulfone, saflufenacil, ethalfluralin, trifluralin, or pendimethalin. Reduced irrigation did not increase carryover injury to rotational crops from these herbicides 1 yr after application. Instead, carryover response was determined by the inherent persistence of individual herbicides. Imazethapyr (0.1 kg ai ha−1) injured rotational sugar beet, and isoxaflutole (0.1 kg ai ha−1) injured rotational dry bean. Pyroxasulfone (0.2 kg ai ha−1), atrazine (2.0 kg ai ha−1), saflufenacil (0.1 kg ai ha−1) + dimethenamid-P (0.6 kg ai ha−1), ethalfluralin (0.8 kg ai ha−1), trifluralin (0.6 kg ai ha−1), and pendimethalin (1.1 kg ai ha−1) did not injure rotational crops regardless of irrigation treatment. Drought stress sufficient to cause up to 77% crop yield loss did not increase soil-applied herbicide carryover.