Human-centric uncertainty remains one of the most persistent yet least quantified sources of risk in aviation maintenance. Although established safety frameworks such as SMS (safety management system), STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes), and FRAM (Functional Resonance Analysis Method) have advanced systemic oversight, they fall short in capturing the dynamic, context-dependent variability of human performance in real time. This study introduces the uncertainty quantification in aircraft maintenance (UQAM) framework – a novel, predictive safety tool designed to measure and manage operational uncertainty at the task level. The integrated uncertainty equation (IUE) is central to the model, a mathematical formulation that synthesises eight empirically derived uncertainty factors into a single, actionable score. Using a mixed-methods design, the research draws on thematic analysis of 49 semi-structured interviews with licensed maintenance engineers, followed by a 12-month field validation across four distinct maintenance tasks. Results demonstrate that the IUE effectively distinguishes between low, moderate and high-risk scenarios while remaining sensitive to procedural anomalies, diagnostic ambiguity and environmental complexity. Heatmap visualisations further enable supervisory teams to identify dominant uncertainty drivers and implement targeted interventions. UQAM enhances predictive governance, supports real-time decision-making and advances the evolution of next-generation safety systems in high-reliability aviation environments by embedding quantitative uncertainty metrics into existing safety architectures.

Strategists seek a competitive advantage by balancing legitimacy and novelty; however, each approach has distinct risks and trade-offs. Some firms take on too much risk and eventually fail, while other firms only seek risk-averse alternatives that appear to promote safety and optimal long-term performance. We question whether those decisions must be mutually exclusive. We generated and applied two generic strategy rationales to the results of a professional sports gambling pool. One rationale mirrored best practices, and the other included one minor adaptation, balancing risk and novelty. Our findings suggest profit potential for both approaches but deviating from the norm – occasionally and systematically – produced better outcomes. We demonstrate how industry-based best practices can serve as a foundation for rational decision-making and strategy development, thereby limiting potential adverse outcomes. However, savvy strategists should learn when and how to deviate from conventional wisdom to create more value for their firms.

This paper studies the probability of active navigational error events for use in ship–bridge allision risk analysis. To estimate the probability of these kinds of events, accident databases, incident reports and AIS data were studied; the case studies herein cover 6 years and 15 bridges in Scandinavia. The main findings of this paper show that there is great variation in the probability of ship–bridge allision due to active navigational errors, and it is not recommended to use the currently common practice of 2% uniform distribution of the number of ship passages on all bridges. Another important finding is that the probability of a ship striking a bridge due to the error type Wrong Course at a Turning point is not uniform along the length of the bridge, but is only likely to occur in a cone formation from the last turning point.

What shapes fossil-fuel investment and divestment decisions? What are pension funds’ climate-related considerations? And how do conceptions of portfolio risk influence these issues? Danish pension funds constitute a rare and understudied cohort of investors who have undertaken comparatively progressive fossil-fuel investment decisions. Simultaneously, diversification and market rationality have frequently been invoked as obstacles to divestment and active ownership. Using the Danish experience, this article conducts an archaeological analysis of the concept of portfolio risk, unearthing the various ways in which it has shaped fossil-fuel investment decisions. The analysis identifies five key aspects through which the concept has hampered Danish pension funds’ active ownership and fossil-fuel divestment decisions (sector diversification, externalities, market rationality, dispersed ownership, and passive index investing). The article argues that these discursive aspects have reinforced a passive tendency within finance capitalism to bolster the status quo, thereby supporting prevailing market actors and the continued extraction of fossil fuels.

This meta-analysis assesses the relationship between vitamin D supplementation and incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). PubMed, Web of science, Ovid, Cochrane Library and Clinical Trials were used to systematically search from their inception until July 2024. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % CI were employed to assess the association between vitamin D supplementation and MACE. This analysis included five randomised controlled trials (RCT). Pooled results showed no significant difference in the incidence of MACE (HR: 0·96; P = 0·77) and expanded MACE (HR: 0·96; P = 0·77) between the vitamin D intervention group and the control group. Further, the vitamin D intervention group had a lower incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), but the difference was not statistically significant (HR: 0·88, 95 % CI: 0·77, 1·01; P = 0·061); nevertheless, vitamin D supplementation had no effect on the reduced incidence of stroke (P = 0·675) or cardiovascular death (P = 0·422). Among males (P = 0·109) and females (P = 0·468), vitamin D supplementation had no effect on the reduced incidence of MACE. For participants with a BMI < 25 kg/m2, the difference was not statistically significant (P = 0·782); notably, the vitamin D intervention group had a lower incidence of MACE for those with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 (HR: 0·91, 95 % CI: 0·83, 1·00; P = 0·055). Vitamin D supplementation did not significantly contribute to the risk reduction of MACE, stroke and cardiovascular death in the general population, but may be helpful for MI. Notably, the effect of vitamin D supplementation for MACE was influenced by BMI. Overweight/obese people should be advised to take vitamin D to reduce the incidence of MACE.

While the claim that moral ignorance exculpates is quite controversial, the parallel claim with respect to non-moral ignorance seems to be universally accepted. As a starting point, we can state this claim as follows:

Non-moral Ignorance Exculpates: If an agent did everything that could be reasonably expected of her to inquire into some empirical issue as to whether P, the seeming truth of P played the appropriate role in the agent’s motivation to Φ, and the agent would not have merited blame for Φ-ing if P had been the case, then the agent does not merit blame for Φ-ing.

In this paper, I aim to accomplish two tasks. First, I argue that NMIE is false in certain cases in which, by Φ-ing, the agent violates a course-grained, reasonable community norm without knowing that doing so is in everyone’s best interests. Second, I argue that, while moral ignorance, like non-moral ignorance, does not exculpate when community norms are violated in this manner, it does exculpate when they are not. With these two tasks accomplished, we will see the striking parallels in the manner in which both moral and non-moral ignorance exculpate.

Global discussions around the risks, benefits and governance of solar radiation modification (SRM) in the climate change response portfolio are accelerating, but the topic remains nascent in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In 2023, a US start-up (Make Sunsets) performed a small-scale, non-research deployment of SRM in Baja California, Mexico, without prior permission or community engagement. Their actions prompted Mexico to announce its intention to ban SRM experimentation, underscoring the need for governance to prevent irresponsible practices that could discredit legitimate research. We perform an empirical and ethical analysis of the landscape of academic discussions and media coverage on SRM in the LAC region, focusing on the Make Sunset case. Our analysis leads us to three conclusions: first, a lack of regulations in LAC that fosters mistrust, fuels perceptions of neo-colonialism and restricts potentially valuable and responsible research; second, we argue that the theatrical Make Sunsets case is not ethically justified in light of the diversity of risks associated with it; third, we offer foundational, participatory recommendations to promote effective, transparent and sustainable governance of SRM, including LAC in global conversations.

Technological developments and affordable price structures have increased the usage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) across almost all sectors, hence increasing demand. Since UAVs can fly and perform various tasks without requiring a human operator, the most dangerous and time-consuming tasks previously performed by humans in many sectors are now accomplished by using UAVs. The increased use of UAVs has also introduced critical safety and security risks, including airspace congestion, collisions and malicious use, and therefore, identifying and assessing the risks associated with UAVs and finding ways to mitigate them is of great importance. This qualitative study investigates the safety and security risks posed by the increased use of UAVs and discusses ways to mitigate these risks. Semi-structured interviews with aviation professionals, including pilots, air traffic controllers and academicians, were conducted, and the collected data were analysed by using MAXQDA 24 qualitative analysis software. The results indicate that 86% of participants emphasised air traffic density as a major safety concern, while 71% underlined the need for dedicated air corridors and robust legal frameworks to reduce collision risks. These insights suggest that the safe integration of UAVs into current aviation systems demands a multifaceted strategy involving regulatory interventions, such as clearly defined UAV flight zones and essential technological enhancements. Overall, the study underscores the urgent need for coordinated efforts–legal, technological, and inter-institutional–to ensure the secure incorporation of UAVs into national airspace.