The USDA’s resilience strategy of subsidizing small meat-packer entry has prompted studies on plant size, market structure, and resilience, each study employing a different conception of resilience. None accounts for the duration and speed of slaughter downturns and recoveries. We account for these factors by developing metrics across 35 U.S. states and estimating how the metrics vary with plant size, labor conditions, and COVID-19 policies. We find medium-sized plants enhanced resilience during COVID-19, raising questions about the USDA’s narrow focus on smaller plants. This highlights the need for more nuanced strategies to strengthen the resilience of the beef processing sector.

An increasing number of disaster relief programs rely on weather data to trigger automated payouts. However, several factors can meaningfully affect payouts, including the choice of data set, its spatial resolution, and the historical reference period used to determine abnormal conditions to be indemnified. We investigate these issues for a subsidized rainfall-based insurance program in the U.S. using data averaged over 0.25° × 0.25° grids to trigger payouts. We simulate the program using 5x finer spatial resolution precipitation estimates and evaluate differences in payouts from the current design. Our analysis across the highest enrolling state (Texas) from 2012 to 2023 reveals that payout determinations would differ in 13% of cases, with payout amounts ranging from 46 to 83% of those calculated using the original data. This potentially reduces payouts by tens of millions annually, assuming unchanged premiums. We then discuss likely factors contributing to payout differences, including intra-grid variation, reference periods used, and varying precipitation distributions. Finally, to address basis risk concerns, we propose ways to use these results to identify where mismatches may lurk, in turn informing strategic sampling campaigns or alternative designs that could enhance the value of insurance and protect producers from downside risks of poor weather conditions.

Analysis of feeder and early weaned pig markets, important segments in pork production, is nearly nonexistent. We derive and estimate a structural econometric model relating demand and supply for market hogs, feeder pigs, and early weaned pigs. Estimates from the econometric model predict how disruptions are transmitted through hog and pig markets. Results indicate that hog and pig markets are most sensitive to hog processing plant utilization relative to capacity and that this sensitivity has increased compared to prior estimates. A set of counterfactual scenarios quantify the effects of shocks to hog processing capacity, wholesale pork demand, and supply response.

While individuals are expected to perceive similarly identical quantities, regardless of the used units (e.g., 1 ton or 1000 kg), several scholars suggest that consumers over-infer quantities when they are presented in bigger and phonetically longer numbers. In two experimental studies, we examine this numerosity bias in the context of household food waste. Unlike previous scholars, manipulating numerosity revealed no effect: perceptions of food waste volume and likelihood to reduce it are not influenced by the used numeric value (2500 g vs. 2.5 kg; Study 1) nor the number of syllables (two kilos eight hundred seventy-five grams vs. three kilograms; Study 2).

We consider the effect of labor market volatility on employment and wages in the meat processing sector. The period of study includes the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in significant labor market shocks in the sector. We examine the relationship between historical volatility of employment and wages and current employment and wages, focusing on the animal slaughtering and processing sector (NAICS 3116). We utilize county-level data to estimate dynamic panel data models of employment and wages. We find that historical volatility in both employment and wages had a significant negative impact on employment in the sector. In the case of wage volatility, we find that wages are higher following periods of significant wage volatility, suggesting that workers demand higher wages under conditions of market volatility. During COVID, smaller meat processors had lower levels of employment, but a small number of large processors had significantly higher levels of employment. In contrast, wages were higher after COVID-19 for almost all counties included in the analysis. In an aggregate sense, COVID tended to largely reduce employment but increase wages in the meat processing sector.

The decline in fed cattle cash sales and its impact on price discovery are concerning. This study extends existing literature by utilizing machine learning to explore factors, particularly decision trees and random forests, to explore factors influencing fed cattle price ranges, complementing traditional regression analyses. These models uncover hidden patterns and provide additional insights into the cattle market. Key variables such as weight range, head count, and trade location, are found to be associated with price ranges. Notably, the weight range emerges as the primary variable influencing the price range, with smaller weight ranges linked to lower price ranges.

Historical ambiguity on how cover crop use influences future crop insurance eligibility has been proposed as one explanation for low cover crop adoption rates. However, explicit guidance on cover crop use for crop insurance participants was added in the 2018 Farm Bill. This study uses farm level data from the Agricultural Resource Management Survey to ascertain whether crop insurance participation influenced adoption of cover crops and to what degree that influence persisted after the 2018 Farm Bill. Estimation of a double hurdle model, combined with a control function approach to address endogeneity, suggests statistically and economically significant effects between crop insurance expenditures and cover crop use at the “extensive margin,” but no statistically significant effect at the “intensive margin.” Estimation on subsets of the data defined by before and after the 2018 Farm Bill suggest that the effect is primarily attributable to participation trends prior to the 2018 Farm Bill. Following the 2018 Farm Bill, no statistically significant effects are observed between cover crop use and crop insurance expenditures.

Foodborne illnesses are costly to society and have been associated with local produce. The affordable “3-step wash” cleaning procedure was designed to reduce pathogens on produce. We estimate consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for food safety (i.e. 3-step washed), prepackage, and sales location attributes in locally grown produce (e.g., lettuce). On average, consumers are willing to pay $1.46 more for 3-step washed and $0.30 more for prepackaged lettuce. Additionally, consumers are willing to pay $0.16 more for fresh produce sold in natural stores and farmers markets compared to supermarkets, but $0.22 less for produce sold in other direct-to-consumer locations such as roadside stands. Higher WTP for the food safety attribute is associated with consumers who have greater risk aversion, less knowledge of foodborne illness, and stricter food safety cleaning and handling practices. Consumers highly concerned about foodborne risks also show higher WTP for both food safety and prepackage attributes. These findings can guide local farmers in making decisions about adopting pathogen-reduction cleaning procedures, selecting sales locations, and developing effective marketing strategies.

The study examines the influence of markups on the export decisions and subsequent export intensity of firms within the Hungarian wine sector. Additionally, we evaluate the impact of entering and sustaining a presence in export markets on firms’ markups and compare the markup levels between exporting and non-exporting firms. We find that markups have a positive impact on both the probability of exporting and the export intensity, which aligns with previous findings. We demonstrate that exporting leads to an increase in markups. We find that exporters maintain higher markups even when accounting for productivity differences. Additionally, exporting can lead to higher markups because of the learning-by-exporting phenomenon. The results have significant implications. The findings imply that markups have a significant impact on the decision-making process and performance of Hungarian wine exports. Policymakers should facilitate to increase the markups of firms in order to enhance the export of wine and promote economic growth. Wine exporting firms should enhance their productivity and implement strategic pricing strategies to increase their markups and expand their exports.

Public food procurement incentives and targeted policies by state and Federal governments are one of the most frequently enacted strategies to leverage food spending to promote co-benefits related to economic, environmental, and social outcomes. Here we use an optimization model to explore potential outcomes of policy alternatives and integrate co-benefit dimensions into schools' agri-food supply chains via Farm to School procurement incentives. We find that in the absence of policy supports, school food authorities are unlikely to participate in local food procurement programs. We then place the findings in context by inferring the level of financial incentives that are needed to reduce barriers to schools' participation. Our findings have implications for community and economic development policies, particularly those seeking to support agriculturally dependent areas via elevated institutional food procurement using the case of policies framed for a school setting.

Bovine trichomoniasis is a venereal disease that causes significant losses in the US beef industry. The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service views bovine trichomoniasis as endemic and delegates control to state agencies and producers. Disease management’s positive externalities are not reflected in a producer’s profit maximization problem, leading to potentially suboptimal levels of control. Our objective was to assess the economic impacts of 50% and 100% reductions of herd-level bovine trichomoniasis prevalence. The cumulative present value of net welfare increased by $388.856 and $193.222 million under the 100% and 50% scenarios, respectively. Feeder cattle producers and retail beef consumers benefit most from enhanced control.

Farmers make pest and disease management decisions without facing the social costs derived from their input choices. But given the sizable externalities involved, there is a rationale for government intervention. We model the profit-maximizing problem of a representative farmer by specifying a functional form for the damage function that incorporates the biological impact of the pathogen-vector system on yield as well as the abating impact of insecticides on the vector population. We use citrus greening disease in Florida as a case study because farmers there adopted an insecticide program that caused toxicity per acre to increase by 472%. Our simulation results show that a tax rate based on toxicity provides farmers with a strong incentive to substitute highly toxic chemicals with less toxic alternatives. Such a tax is also more efficient relative to a quantity-based tax that achieves a similar reduction in toxicity because it results in a significantly lower reduction in farmers’ yield and profit.

Past research shows that farm animal welfare (FAW) policies can reduce consumer and retailer welfare, but producer welfare implications are less certain. This study uses equilibrium displacement modeling of the U.S. wholesale shell egg market to determine how the transition to cage-free egg sales could affect short- and long-run producer welfare. Under varying assumptions and retailer demand shifts, the results consistently demonstrate that producer profits are expected to decline as retailers pivot toward cage-free purchasing, holding all else constant. These findings help explain the tension surrounding FAW policies across the supply chain and can be used to inform industry and policymaker discussions on the topic.

In this paper, we examine the effect of the “Fresh From Florida” marketing program on the preferences of consumers located in geographically distant regions. We administered a choice experiment to consumers from the Northeastern region of the US, the Eastern region of Canada, and from Florida. Our findings show that the logo recall rate is significant for out-of-state consumers. While the WTP for the “Fresh from Florida” attribute is not statistically significant for Northeastern US respondents, logo recall positively influences the WTP. Logo recall positively affects WTP in Canada, but only for respondents with positive or neutral opinions of Florida.

The USDA has implemented policies to address inequities for socially disadvantaged farmers and ranchers. This research examines agricultural risk inequities and the impact of 2018 Farm Bill programs on crop insurance use among minority and veteran farmers. Results indicate that minority and veteran farmers are disproportionately located in regions of the U.S. with higher risks of drought and excess precipitation. Yet, these producer groups had lower use of crop insurance prior to the implementation of the 2018 Farm Bill. However, the incentive programs created under the 2018 Farm Bill have increased use of federal crop insurance among these vulnerable populations.

Almost 40 per cent of Brazil's native vegetation is located on over five million private properties. This study assesses the potential of agricultural land taxes and tradable forest certificates for conserving Brazil's fragmented native vegetation across commercial farms, using micro census data from 2006 and 2017. We explore the variability of optimal tax rates and market prices for forest certificates, revealing a supply-demand imbalance in the Amazon and high sensitivity of conservation outcomes to changes in farmland opportunity costs, especially in productive areas. Despite a more positively skewed distribution of opportunity costs by 2017, market outcomes remained unaffected. Notably, expanding the market to include the Amazon's agricultural frontier microregions could achieve 45 per cent of the conservation target. Our analysis underscores the interplay between market-based conservation mechanisms and regional agricultural economics, highlighting the need for tailored approaches to optimize conservation efforts.

The purpose of this study is to analyze agricultural producers’ willingness to adopt regenerative cover crop practices in their operation and the effects of producer and farm characteristics on willingness to accept (WTA) values. The paper utilizes the double-bounded contingent valuation method to analyze survey responses submitted by producers and non-operating landowners in the Texas and Oklahoma portions of the Southern Great Plains. Results showed an average WTA of $26.38/acre for producers to adopt cover crops and that programs aimed at increasing adoption rates may require more substantial investment compared to those focused on continuity with current adopters.

Competition and power imbalances in the food chain are under increased scrutiny from policy makers. We assess the competitive conditions in the EU food sector, using firm-level accounting data to examine firm size distributions and market concentration (for 10 countries), and production-function-derived markups (for 7 countries) for food manufacturing, retail, and wholesale industries. Key findings include the following: (i) most firms are small, but larger firms generate most turnover; (ii) concentration is notable in certain subsectors (25% of retail/wholesale and 50% manufacturing subsectors); (iii) the correlation between turnover size, markups, and concentration at subsector level is weak. We discuss the implications for the use of turnover-based classification in the EU policy initiative on unfair trading practices.

In 2018 and 2019, China’s outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) and the U.S.–China trade war captured media headlines worldwide. This research uses a unique data set of media headlines and sentiments to estimate the impact of media on U.S. lean hog futures prices for nearby and distant expiration contracts. Findings suggest futures prices are influenced by news media content, with results differing by time to contract expiration and sentiment of the headline. International headlines with positive and negative connotations toward ASF and trade war have more significant effects, indicating sensationalist media creates the greatest price movements compared to neutral headlines.