Long-term projections are the bedrock of any analysis looking at the sustainability of public finances. This paper computes the changes in economic growth in individual European Union countries needed for government debt-to-GDP ratios to stay on their baseline trajectories (taken from the European Commission’s Debt Sustainability Monitor 2023) under high life expectancy, low-fertility, low-migration, and high-migration scenarios. These scenarios are provided in the Commission’s Ageing Report (2024). We find that deviations of migration from the baseline entail the largest effect on the required rate of economic growth. The effects of the low-fertility scenario are most pronounced in the very long run and sometimes exceed those of low migration. Our findings inform policymakers about the potential role of higher productivity growth in alleviating the public finance consequences of demographic shocks. The importance of higher productivity growth is increased by the fact that in some countries demographic projections tend to be optimistic.

I study the effect of educational policy in the host economy on human capital accumulation and growth. The analysis is performed in a two-country growth model with endogenous fertility. I show that providing additional free educational services for immigrant children can increase the attractiveness of migration for less skilled individuals, which can outweigh the positive effect of this policy on the acquisition of human capital. In contrast, imposing taxes on immigrants in the host country reduces low-skilled immigration flows and has the potential to promote human capital accumulation if the resulting revenues are channeled into educational subsidies.

This research examines whether high temperatures and exposure to childhood rainfall and heat shocks are a cognitive drag on children in Uganda. First, it asks whether students perform worse on a test on hotter days. Second, it examines whether previous longer-term exposure to high temperatures and unusual rainfall influences current test scores and educational outcomes. The analysis shows that high temperatures on test dates harm test performance, especially for girls and children younger than ten, implying additional temperature control considerations for particular demographics. The analysis of childhood climate shocks, which employs within-parish distributions of rainfall and heat, shows that children who experience rain or heat above the $80^{th}$ percentile of the parish distribution from birth until age 4 have worse learning outcomes in math, English, or local language literacy.

Although fertility is typically regarded as a unitary family decision, a meaningful degree of disagreement in fertility willingness exists within households, especially for having two or more children. As China transitioned from a one-child to multiple-child policy, understanding how such disagreement affects fertility decisions is crucial. Using household data from the 2016 China Labor-force Dynamic Survey, we analyze fertility willingness in married couples. We find that over 10% of families disagree on having two or more children. Disagreement negatively impacts plans to have more children: only the husband wanting two children significantly reduces fertility plans compared to mutual agreement, while only the wife wanting two children does not suppress the plan. This is consistent with the wife's veto power in fertility decisions. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that more equal gender role and higher bargaining power contribute to the wife's veto power, offering insights into the mechanism of intra-household fertility decisions.

We analyze the impact of extending mandatory education from five to eight years on mothers’ involvement in early childhood educational activities, using data from the Turkish Time Use Survey. The compulsory education reform substantially increased the likelihood of mothers completing at least middle school (eight years of schooling). However, it had no significant effect on mothers’ time spent on early childhood educational activities, such as reading, playing, and talking to children. Instead, the reform increased mothers’ total time with children, particularly through housework and social activities involving children. These findings suggest that studies linking maternal education to greater time investment in childcare may suffer from omitted variable bias, as unobserved factors like maternal intelligence and values influence both educational attainment and childcare behaviors. Our findings are critical given that nearly half of pre-primary-age children globally are not enrolled in formal education and primarily remain in home settings.

The aim of this paper is to analyze gender differences in the determinants of the gap between actual and desired fertility in Spain. To this aim, we exploit the 2018 Fertility Survey (EF2018) from the Spanish Statistical Institute (INE). A binary probit model shows that gender differences in the risk (and its pattern) of not reaching the desired family size are generally more pronounced amongst parents than amongst childless adults. For women, a high level of education, a potentially unstable employment situation (as an employee in the private sector) and not living with a partner increases the risk of not having the desired number of children. For men, variables related to income instability or low monthly income cause a more pronounced differential between desired and actual parenthood than amongst women, while neither educational level nor partner status – amongst those who are already fathers – significantly influences their probability of not reaching the desired number of children.

Statistical discrimination offers a compelling narrative on gender wage gaps among younger workers. Employers could reduce women's wages to adjust for expected costs linked to child-bearing. If this is the case, then trends toward delayed fertility should reduce the gender wage gap among young workers. We provide a novel collection of adjusted gender wage gap (AGWG) estimates among young workers from 56 countries spanning four decades and use it to test the conjecture that delayed fertility reduces gender wage inequality. We employ instrumental variables, and find that one year postponement of the first birth reduces AGWG by two percentage points (15% of the AGWG). We benchmark this estimate with the help of time-use data.

I contribute to the literature on the growth of public spending in Western economies with a novel mechanism that ties it to the marketization process, i.e. the substitution of home with market production. I argue that a key contributor to the expansion of social spending is the replacement of family-based transfers with public pensions and other public transfer programs. I provide empirical support for this hypothesis by establishing the long-run relationship between government size and marketization, alongside other established determinants of government spending, in a panel of Western economies. I then illustrate a potential mechanism behind the results with a theoretical model in which, as a result of the productivity advantage of the market over the home sector, family-based intergenerational transfers decline unexpectedly, providing a rationale for government intervention in the form of public pensions with a poverty relief component.

Teenage childbearing is a common incident in developed countries. However, teenage births are much more likely in the USA than in any other industrialized country. Most of these births are delivered by female teenagers from low-income families. The hypothesis put forward here is that the welfare state (a set of redistributive institutions) has a significant influence on teenage childbearing behavior. We develop an economic theory of parental investments and the risky sexual behavior of teenagers. The model is estimated to fit stylized facts about income inequality, intergenerational mobility, and the sexual behavior of teenagers in the USA. The welfare state institutions are introduced via tax and public education expenditure functions derived from US data. In a quantitative experiment, we impose Norwegian taxes and education spending in the economic environment. The Norwegian welfare state institutions go a long way in explaining the differences in teenage birth rates between the USA and Norway.

On 1 January 2016, China further relaxed its family planning policy and adopted the universal two-child policy, which allows any Chinese couple to have two children to address the country’s increasingly severe ageing problems and low fertility. With this shift comes a direct and profound impact on society, especially women; this paper evaluates the effect of the universal two-child policy on the gender wage gap and its mechanism. Several major conclusions emerge from this analysis. The policy significantly expands the urban gender wage gap by 12.86% in the low-policy-fertility-rate (PFR) provinces versus high-PFR provinces. Evidently, it increases the gap among younger or lower-educated people. Moreover, the severity of gender discrimination in the labour market after the implementation of the universal two-child policy is rising, and deserves further attention.

We investigate the effect of water quality on the educational outcomes of children aged 8–11 in 39 districts in five states in the Ganges Basin of India. Using data from the Centre for Pollution Control Board of India and the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS) 2011–12, we study the effect of water quality in the Ganges Basin on the performance in three test scores. Our evidence suggests that faecal coliform levels in water sources above safety thresholds negatively affect reading and writing test scores. The effects of Nitrate-N and Nitrite-N in the water appear to be weaker compared to those of faecal coliform. The results establish that water pollution caused by excessive presence of faecal coliform is an important environmental factor in determining educational outcomes of children. High levels of faecal coliform in the water could be lowering cognitive abilities of the pollution-affected children through the channel of waterborne diseases.

This paper examines the impact of female education on fertility outcomes by using the Universal Primary Education (UPE) program in Malawi as a natural experiment. The finding indicates that the UPE policy improves rural women's educational attainment by 0.42 years and an additional year of female education decreases women's number of children ever born and the number of living children by 0.39 and 0.34, respectively. An analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that the decreased fertility rates are likely driven by the reduction in women's fertility preferences, the postponement of marriage, and the delay of motherhood. Contrarily, the study finds no evidence that increased female education affects women's labor force participation and the use of modern contraception.

Using the public-use files of the Canadian Community Health Survey and a difference-in-differences methodology, we estimate the impact of a universal income transfer (the Universal Child Care Benefit) on food insecurity, separately for adults and children within households. The income transfer reduced the risk of overall food insecurity by 20% at the child level, and the effect was larger in households with lower education or income. The transfer also reduced the likelihood of moderate/severe food insecurity among adults in single-parent families, as well as adults and children in households with secondary education or less. These findings withstand several robustness checks.

A basic hypothesis is that cultural evolutionary processes sustain differences between groups, these differences have evolutionary relevance and they would not otherwise occur in a system without cultural transmission. The empirical challenge is that groups vary for many reasons, and isolating the causal effects of culture often requires appropriate data and a quasi-experimental approach to analysis. We address this challenge with historical data from the final Soviet census of 1989, and our analysis is an example of the epidemiological approach to identifying cultural variation. We find that the fertility decisions of Armenian, Georgian and Azeri parents living in Soviet-era Russia were significantly more son-biased than those of other ethnic groups in Russia. This bias for sons took the form of differential stopping rules; families with sons stopped having children sooner than families without sons. This finding suggests that the increase in sex ratios at birth in the Caucasus, which began in the 1990s, reflects a cultural preference for sons that predates the end of the Soviet Union. This result also supports one of the key hypotheses of gene–culture coevolution, namely that cultural evolutionary processes can support group-level differences in selection pressures that would not otherwise occur in a system without culture.

Residential independence and incorporation into the labour market are two fundamental aspects of the transition of young people to adulthood, and gender differences have been observed in both. This study aims to determine the reasons behind the gender gap seen in young adults leaving their parental home and in finding paid employment. We analyse both the decisions of residential independence and employment jointly, for the sample of men and that of women. We separate the influence of observed factors from the influence of unobserved factors or preferences on the gender gap using decomposition techniques. The analysis is carried out for two points in time; this temporal comparison can help demonstrate whether the recent social changes experienced have modified the behaviour patterns of young people. Our findings indicate that, in accordance with the trend observed in recent decades in Europe, there is a convergence between men and women in the residential independence of young adults in Spain. However, in the labour market, there is still much to be done to reduce the gender gap. One recommendation arising from our study would be to promote policies which further improve the conciliation of family and work life, since this could reduce female labour abandonment associated with starting a family or motherhood.

Access to safe drinking water is among the most important determinants of public health outcomes. We pair household-level data from Iraq together with data on armed conflict and adopt a generalized difference-in-differences approach to study the relationship between household drinking water sources and armed conflict intensity. We find that households located in conflict-affected areas are more likely to use piped water accessed at their homes or bottled water as their primary source of drinking water, but are less likely to use public water sources or tanked water delivered on trucks and carts. We explore the temporal dynamics of these adjustments as well as heterogeneity by household characteristics. We further present direct evidence that conflict-exposed households are less likely to travel to obtain water.

We show that the exposure to war-related violence increases the quantity of children temporarily, with permanent negative consequences for the quality of the current and previous cohorts. Our empirical evidence is based on Nepal, which experienced a 10 year long civil conflict of varying intensity. We exploit that villages affected by the conflict had the same trend in fertility as non-affected villages prior to the onset of conflict and employ a difference-in-differences estimator. We find that women in affected villages increased their fertility during the conflict by 19%, while child height-for-age declined by 10%. Supporting evidence suggests that the temporary fertility increase was the main pathway leading to reduced child height, as opposed to direct impacts of the conflict.

Expansions of Medicaid family planning services have been associated with decreases in pregnancy rates. Access to a broader range of medical, non-family planning services may influence pregnancy rates as well if the increased exposure to medical services spills over to other kinds of behaviour. Using a difference-in-difference approach, I examine the impact of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansions on the propensity of low-income, single women to become single mothers. Previous expansions of Medicaid family planning services allow us to also investigate the influence of access to other medical services (i.e. non-family planning). I find that although access to contraceptives is associated with a reduction in the propensity of becoming a single mother among adult, low-income women, medical services beyond access to contraceptives can provide additional impacts.

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that exposure to the restrictive fertility policies of the Chinese “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign in the 1970s contributes to the dynamics and patterns of elderly suicides in China in the period 2004–2017. We apply an identification strategy that exploits variation in exposure to this policy across birth cohorts that is based on the different timing of the implementation of the fertility policies across Chinese provinces. The results show that cohorts with a greater exposure to the restrictive fertility policy in the 1970s exhibit higher suicide rates during old ages.