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Chapter 5 shows that German housing programs reached a turning point in the mid-1970s. Initially, these programs reinforced the postwar export-oriented growth regime by alleviating housing shortages and creating low-cost housing that limited wage demands and inflation. However, as housing shortages abated, policymakers started criticizing them for contradicting the growth regime by increasing public debt, diverting capital from manufacturing, and fueling inflation. Unlike American policymakers who expanded housing support in response to post-Keynesian challenges, German policymakers began scaling down housing programs. By the late 1980s, they had gradually reduced large-scale rental housing programs. At the same time, they protected homeownership support, including through Chancellor Helmut Kohl's 1986 tax reform, not as a growth strategy but as policies for family support, wealth creation, and old-age security. However, key actors in the German growth regime critiqued homeownership programs for limiting labor mobility, inflating prices, and shifting capital away from manufacturing. For the time being, German politicians prioritized political factors and ignored macroeconomic critiques.
Exploring the economic ramifications of climate change, this chapter features insights from financial experts such as Sara Jane Ahmed, Managing Director and V20 Finance Advisor of the CVF-V20 Secretariat. It discusses the adverse effects on GDP growth, inflation, debt, and credit ratings, particularly in vulnerable economies. The chapter highlights the crucial role of financial markets, insurance, and climate finance in addressing these challenges. Innovative financing solutions such as Green Bonds and pre-arranged and trigger-based financing, including loss and damage finance, are explored as means to build economic resilience. The importance of sustainable economic policies and international cooperation is emphasised, with case studies from countries successfully integrating climate resilience into their economic planning. The chapter calls for increased investment in climate adaptation and mitigation to safeguard economic stability and promote sustainable development.
The rise of U.S. inflation in 2021 and 2022 and its partial subsiding have sparked debates about the relative role of supply and demand factors. The initial surge surprised many macroeconomists despite the unprecedented jump in money growth in 2020–21. We find that the relationship between consumption and the theoretically based Divisia M3 measure of money (velocity) can be well modeled both in the short- and long-runs. We use the estimated long-run relationship to calculate the deviation of actual velocity from its long-run equilibrium and incorporate it into a P-Star framework. Our model of velocity significantly improves the performance of the P-Star model relative to using a one-sided HP filter to calculate trend velocity as used by other researchers. We also include a global supply pressures index in the model and find that recent movements in U.S. inflation largely owed to aggregate demand driven macroeconomic factors that are tracked by Divisia money with a smaller role played by supply factors.
This chapter examines the military and economic centrality of granary networks to the Nationalists’ war effort. The centralization of land tax and its collection in kind restored the granary’s historic importance as the storehouse of state wealth. However, the chapter moves away from the dominant portrayal of granaries as economic stabilizers and disaster relief mechanisms to emphasize their strategic significance for an agrarian state at war. In examining the government’s establishment of a national grain reserve scheme and its construction of granary networks throughout its territories, the chapter presents the granary as an integral part of wartime economic policy and military logistical organization. It also studies the amassing of grain reserves in southwestern Yunnan for the Chinese Expeditionary Force after the fall of Burma, a significant but forgotten effort. Unlike most studies, it pays close attention to day-to-day operations, such as checking the quality of delivered grain and preventing spoilage. These everyday procedures are a window into how the demands of war concretely shaped civilian life and illustrate that granaries were key sites of state-society interaction.
This chapter argues that the risks of deflation and inflation and the financial crises at the start of the twenty-first century led to a “crisis,” with declining public confidence in money and the institutions that govern it, primarily the central banks. We describe the alternation of stability ad instability phases in the last half century. The postwar stability phase based on the Bretton Woods system ended in 1971. The end of the Great Inflation in the early 1980s opened the way to another stability phase, lasting until the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–09. A trait of this period was the liberalization and expansion of global capital markets. In the subsequent period – 2008 to today –the boom of digital and crypto finance took place. This period coincides with unprecedented activism of central banks aimed at supporting economic activity, fending off the risks of deflation and, in Europe, preserving the cohesion of the euro under threat from sovereign debts and a fragile banking sector. Lax monetary conditions, inflation, debilitated banks – these factors created an easier ground for competitors to challenge a traditional financial sector in a state of crisis.
We study long-run inflation in a competitive-search model with heterogeneous agents. Under competitive search, individuals’ matching-probability (extensive) margins trade off against quantity (intensive) margins. With money and unfettered market participation, these trade-offs depend on inflation and individuals’ heterogeneous money holdings. We find that welfare falls as inflation increases. However, money-holdings inequality is not monotonic in inflation. As inflation rises, liquid-wealth inequality first falls. For sufficiently high inflation, the overall extensive-margin effect dominates the intensive margin, and liquid-wealth inequality rises. The model also poses a new computational challenge to which we propose a novel solution method.
This study investigates the impact of inflation on the 2022 US mid-term elections, a period witnessing the resurgence of inflation as a major concern in the USA for the first time in decades. We develop a pre-registered survey with an embedded experiment to examine the political repercussions of rising prices. We find that individuals experiencing a higher personal inflation burden are more inclined to support Republican candidates. Our survey experiment further assesses the impact of partisan messaging leading up to the election, focusing on two primary narratives: government spending, as emphasized by Republicans, and corporate greed, highlighted by Democrats. The results indicate that attributing inflation to government spending decreases support for Democrats, whereas associating it with corporate greed undermines confidence in the Republicans’ ability to effectively manage inflation. Economic voting behaviour depends not only on objective economic conditions but also on how political parties subjectively frame these conditions.
This chapter provides an overview of the state of the art in constitutional and political theory with regard to the topic of central banks. Central banking, I show, is a highly political domain of policy making that raises thorny and under explored normative questions. I challenge accounts of central banking as involving limited discretion and distributional choices in the pursuit of low inflation, as well as the narrow range of normative questions that such accounts raise. I then ask what to make of central bankers’ political power from a normative perspective. As I argue, some delegation of important decisions to unelected officials is almost unavoidable, often desirable and by itself not undemocratic. I conclude by explaining that we should nonetheless be reluctant to allow for extensive central bank discretion by highlighting six crucial issues that are currently not sufficiently understood: the central bank’s actual level of autonomy from governments, the effectiveness of accountability mechanisms, the effects of depoliticizing money on the broader political system, the effects of democratic insulation on the effectiveness of central banks, the specific practices of deliberation within central banks and the scope for coordination with elected government.
This chapter looks at central bank digital currencies and aims to extend our understanding and the use cases for CBDCs in line with domestic and international economic policies. It examines central bank transactions and how money supply can be controlled and maintained using CBDCs. Over the years, the use of quantitative tightening has been limited due to the current functionality and utility of a country’s financial system. The “Klair Effect” is a form of quantitative tightening; it does not use the apparatus of interest rates to control the inflation rate; instead, a “delete button” to control the money supply on a central banks’ balance sheet.
We study how consumer preferences affect the transmission of microeconomic price shocks to consumer price index (CPI) inflation. These preferences give rise to complementarities and substitutions between goods, generating demand-driven cross-price dependencies that either amplify or mitigate the impact of price shocks. Our results demonstrate that while both effects are present, positive spillovers due to complementarities dominate. The magnitude of these cross-price effects is significant, demonstrating their importance in shaping CPI inflation dynamics. Most importantly, demand-driven price linkages decisively shape the impact of producer prices on CPI inflation. These findings underscore the need to take into account demand-driven price dependencies when assessing the impact of price shocks on CPI inflation, rather than relying solely on supply-related ones.
The pandemic caused expenditure shares to vary more than usual, leading to serious ramifications when combined with the fact that the expenditure shares used to calculate CPI inflation are 1-2 years old. This caused a potential bias in the measurement of inflation. We also look at the cost-of-living crisis and found that the lags in updating the expenditure shares for energy and food led to an underestimate of inflation in 2022. Inflation also has a large effect on the measurement of the public sector deficit. With a high debt-GDP ratio and high inflation, there was a substantial inflation tax.
Following military defeat in 1918, the Emperor abdicated and a Republic was declared. The 1919 Treaty of Versailles imposed devastating terms on Germany. Social, economic, and political instability fostered the growth of radical ethno-nationalist movements. Once the great inflation of 1923 had been brought under control, and reparations and foreign relations were subjected to renegotiation, the political system began to stabilise. Berlin continued to expand as an industrial metropolis, with an improved transport network and major factories between the nineteenth-century red brick churches, schools, and municipal buildings. Immigration continued, including workers from the provinces and Jews fleeing pogroms in eastern Europe. A ferment of intellectual and artistic creativity contributed to ‘Weimar culture’, while Berlin also became noted for cabaret, night life, and challenges to traditional sexual mores. Following the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the German economy collapsed, precipitating further political instability. In a situation of near civil war, on 30 January 1933 President Hindenburg appointed the leader of the NSDAP, Adolf Hitler, as German Chancellor in a mixed cabinet.
We study the effects of professionals’ survey-based inflation expectations on inflation for a large number of 36 economies, using dynamic cross-country panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves. We find that inflation expectations have a significantly positive effect on inflation. We also find that the effect of inflation expectations on inflation is significantly larger when inflation is higher. This suggests that second-round effects via the effects of higher inflation expectations on inflation are more relevant in a high-inflation environment.
Chapter 9, Where and how to place (June 8 - June 13) the question of the placement of the government loan comes front and center. Since the second BIS loan to ANB is conditional upon the placement of the bond loan, the National Bank is increasingly under pressure and the money supply has increased as it has rediscounted for the Credit Anstalt. The CA has no more solid collateral and ANB is losing foreign exchange at an increasing rate. Meantime, Hungary is also suffering from capital flight and the nervousness over contagion and the psychology of the crisis is increasing. The conflicts between the Austrian government and the central banks increases and information is still very hard to come by, all of which contributes to the uncertainty of the situation.
The early seventeenth century was a period of economic crisis throughout Eurasia. Finance was developed enough for heads of state to raise and equip massive armies, but not developed enough to pay these armies regularly. Within the context of the Mansfeld Regiment’s financial problems, this chapter describes mutiny, desertion, female labor, and the challenges of finding small change during a financial crisis. The Mansfeld Regiment’s operations depended on a network of military finance in central Europe and northern Italy which was broadly ramifying but imperfect and disorganized. The loan that was supposed to support this regiment was delayed; by the time the money arrived, the regiment’s superiors may simply have forgotten about them. The Mansfeld Regiment collapsed two years later.
Did the threat of war trigger the extraction-coercion cycle? In this chapter I use a panel of Latin America from 1830 to 1913 to test the effects of looming international threats on domestic taxation and internal conflict. It is believed that due to the availability of foreign loans and taxable imports, states in the region did not have to engage in extraction from the local population, nor did they have to coerce individuals to comply with such policies. I summarize this argument in the form of testable hypotheses and point to factors—naval blockades and sovereign debt defaults—that might have hindered access to such external resources. I then focus on militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) and how they affected revenues, tariff levels, foreign loans, civil wars, coups, etc. My analyses show MIDs had a negative effect on tariffs and revenue and diminished the likelihood of a new loan—all results that contest the established conventional wisdom. Conversely, MIDs are associated to currency depreciation—a domestic-oriented inflationary tax—and domestic conflict—in particular, civil wars and coups. The chapter shows war did trigger the extraction-coercion cycle.
In a series of academic publications, Edward Nelson has contended that from the 1950s until the late 1970s, UK policymakers failed to recognise the primacy of monetary policy in controlling inflation. He argues that the highwater mark of monetary policy neglect occurred in the 1970s. This thesis has been rejected by Duncan Needham who has explored several experiments with monetary policy from the late 1960s and challenged the assertion that the authorities neglected monetary policy during the 1970s. Drawing on evidence from the archives and other sources, this article documents how the UK authorities wrestled with monetary policy following the 1967 devaluation of sterling. Excessive broad money growth during the early 1970s was followed by the highest level of peacetime inflation by 1975. The article shows that despite the experiments with monetary policy, a nonmonetary view of inflation dominated the mindset of policymakers during the first half of the 1970s. In the second half of the 1970s there was a change in emphasis and monetary policy became more prominent in economic policymaking, particularly when money supply targets were introduced. Despite this, the nonmonetary view of inflation dominated the decision processes of policymakers during the 1970s.
This paper develops a monetary R&D-driven endogenous growth model featuring endogenous innovation scales and the price-marginal cost markup. To endogenize the step size of quality improvement, we propose a tradeoff mechanism between the risk of innovation failure and the benefit of innovation success in R&D firms. Several findings emerge from the analysis. First, a rise in the nominal interest rate decreases economic growth; however, its relationship with social welfare is ambiguous. Second, either strengthening patent protection or raising the professional knowledge of R&D firms leads to an ambiguous effect on economic growth. Third, the Friedman rule of a zero nominal interest rate fails to be optimal in view of the social welfare maximum. Finally, our numerical analysis indicates that the extent of patent protection and the level of an R&D firm’s professional knowledge play a crucial role in determining the optimal interest rate.
This paper identifies several ways in which “measurement matters” in detecting quantity-theoretic linkages between money growth and inflation in recent data from the Euro Area, United Kingdom, and USA. Elaborating on the “Barnett critique,” it uses Divisia aggregates in place of their simple-sum counterparts to gauge the effects that monetary expansion or contraction is having on inflationary pressures. It also uses one-sided time series filtering techniques to track, in real time, slowly shifting trends in velocity and real economic growth that would otherwise weaken the statistical money growth-inflation relationship. Finally, it documents how measures of inflation based on GDP were distorted severely, especially in the EA and UK, during the 2020 economic closures. Using measures based on consumption instead, estimates from the P-star model confirm that changes in money growth have strong predictive power for subsequent movements in inflation.
The 1922 Rand Rebellion was the only instance of worker protest in the twentieth century in which a modern state used tanks and military airplanes, as well as mounted infantry, to suppress striking workers. These circumstances were unprecedented in their own time and for most of the century. The compressed and intensely violent rebellion of twenty thousand white mineworkers in South Africa’s gold mines had several overlapping features. Within a matter of days—from 6 to 12 March—it went from a general strike to a racial pogrom and insurrection against the government of Prime Minister Jan Smuts. Throughout all these twists and turns, the battle standard remained, “Workers of the world unite and fight for a White South Africa!” Race and violence were integral features of South Africa’s industrial history, but they do not explain the moments when discrete groups of people chose to use them as weapons or bargaining tools. At the close of the First World War, for instance, South Africa’s white mine workers demanded a more comprehensive distribution of the privileges of white supremacy, but in a manner that was both violent and contentious. Consequently, South Africa’s immediate postwar period became one of the most violent moments in its history.