Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
  1. Home
  2. Search

Refine search

Refine search

Access:
Content type:
Publication date:
Apply   From and To filters
Subject: Show more
Journals Show more
Publishers: Show more
Societies Show more
Series: Show more
Collections: Show more

Actions for selected content:

Select all | Deselect all
  • View selected items
  • Export citations
  • Download PDF (zip)
  • Save to Kindle
  • Save to Dropbox
  • Save to Google Drive

Save Search

You can save your searches here and later view and run them again in "My saved searches".

Please provide a title, maximum of 40 characters.
Cancel
×

1 results

  • 2 - Thinking Like a Gambler: For All the Gambles of Life

  • from Part I - Analytics: Probability, Evaluation, Decision Trees, and Strategies for Decision Making
  • Harvey J. Langholtz, William & Mary
  • Book:
    Making Decisions: Analytics, Cognition, and Application
    Published online:
    23 October 2025
    Print publication:
    06 November 2025, pp 12-27

  • Summary

    Decisions are often made in an environment of risk, where the decision maker considers probabilities and possible outcomes. But in order to make a decision under risk, the decision maker must first determine the probabilities of the possible outcomes.

    Through experience and observation, people estimate the probability of future events. The probability of an event can be determined as the number of instances of the particular event divided by the total number of possible events. With the tossing of a coin, there are two possible outcomes – a head or a tail – and the probability of either one is ½ or .5. Games of chance, including roulette and lotteries, provide clear examples of how probabilities can be calculated.

    When probabilities and outcomes are known, expected value can be calculated and decision makers can use expected value when they analyze possible courses of action and make a decision.