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By the end of the fourteenth-century AD, Native peoples throughout the midwestern and southeastern regions of North America had withdrawn from major monumental and political centers established in prior centuries. In this article, I present the results of a community-level examination of settlement transformations on the Georgia Coast that I argue are the outcome of this large-scale movement of Mississippian peoples. Specifically, I examine the consequences of the depopulation of the Savannah River Valley, a case of a rapid, historically contingent Mississippian emigration beginning in the fourteenth century AD. My results establish how a large-scale immigration event affected community spatial and political organization and demonstrate that migrants and coastal locals engaged in the collective cultural construction of new identities and lifeways in response to the challenges of negotiating the use of common pool resources, such as fisheries and suitable farmland. Reconstructing the spatial organization of communities can help explain the demographic, economic, and political processes that undergird the cultural materialization of space. Although much remains to be learned about intra-settlement organization at post-Archaic, precolonial sites along the Georgia Coast, this investigation provides new information about the local, community-level spatial response to the fourteenth-century immigration event.
Long-term projections are the bedrock of any analysis looking at the sustainability of public finances. This paper computes the changes in economic growth in individual European Union countries needed for government debt-to-GDP ratios to stay on their baseline trajectories (taken from the European Commission’s Debt Sustainability Monitor 2023) under high life expectancy, low-fertility, low-migration, and high-migration scenarios. These scenarios are provided in the Commission’s Ageing Report (2024). We find that deviations of migration from the baseline entail the largest effect on the required rate of economic growth. The effects of the low-fertility scenario are most pronounced in the very long run and sometimes exceed those of low migration. Our findings inform policymakers about the potential role of higher productivity growth in alleviating the public finance consequences of demographic shocks. The importance of higher productivity growth is increased by the fact that in some countries demographic projections tend to be optimistic.
Chapter 1 examines the fourteenth-century emergence of problems that drove fifteenth-century developments. When necessary, this chapter places those fourteenth-century problems in their twelfth- and thirteenth-century contexts. The problems were three. Firstly, there was the diminution of the town’s population caused by bubonic plague. Secondly, there was swelling municipal debt; its existence and the measures taken to reduce it exacerbated social antagonisms that fuelled the third problem, distrust. Between the 1340s and the 1390s, suspicion and hostility between burghers and merchants, on the one hand, and tradespeople, on the other, deepened and became dangerously acute.
The Brazil nut tree Bertholletia excelsa is an icon of Amazon conservation through sustainable use. Moderate disturbance, such as that caused by swidden agriculture, favours this heliophilic species. Our systematic literature review of Bertholletia studies and historical records addresses the following questions: do slash-and-burn farming systems increase Bertholletia density and growth? What do historical records reveal about the links between Bertholletia life history and human occupation? And what policies and regulations shape the current context for harnessing this synergistic potential for sustainable use? Compared to mature forests, slash-and-burn fallow seedling/sapling densities (11–82 individuals ha–1, with a mean of 29 individuals ha–1) are greater and faster-growing. Extant Bertholletia trees that were cut and burned during swidden preparation resprout as forked individuals and supplement new seeds buried by Dasyprocta spp. The presence of large forked Bertholletia trees and the occurrence of anthropogenic soils, particularly brown soils associated with Brazil nut tree groves, provide evidence that extant Bertholletia groves may be islands of active and passive agroecological management by ancestral Indigenous populations and local communities. This supports the notion that conservation through sustainable use can maintain Amazonian megadiversity. Furthermore, fire has been used in the Amazon since the onset of crop cultivation (including Bertholletia) c. 4500 years ago, suggesting that a more effective approach than banning fires would be to implement a systematic and methodical fire and fuel management strategy, given the ineffectiveness of command-and-control policies in this regard. The 124 conservation units and Indigenous lands in the Amazon containing Brazil nut trees reinforce the importance of policies to create protected areas. Evidence suggests that the presence of an Amazonian biocultural forest – a phenomenon resulting from the interaction between human activities and natural processes – can be sustainably used to promote what might be termed ‘sociobiodiversity conservation’.
For both developed and developing countries in the world, the twenty-first century will be marked by great challenges for healthcare systems. The overwhelming reason will be aging societies that will face an increase in multimorbid, chronic diseases which will include neurological diseases. The probability of surviving acute illness and the medical opportunities to prolong life in chronic-progressive disease will improve in future. As a result the numbers of neurological patients with respiratory impairment caused by prolonged, chronic or chronic-progressive life-threatening disease will increase. Minimizing dependency on life-supporting technologies and care, stabilizing vital functions, optimizing quality of life and participation and alleviating suffering are paramount goals for these patients. The therapeutic approach therefore must integrate intensive care, neurorespiratory care, rehabilitation and palliative care. Furthermore, patient-centered and family-oriented care, which covers the whole lifespan and bridges the gap between inpatient and outpatient care, is needed.
Now capital of the Federal Republic of Germany, and playing a leading role in Europe and the wider world, Berlin has risen from insignificant origins in two small medieval trading centres on swampy soil at the confluence of two rivers, the Spree and the Havel, in the Brandenburg marches (or Mark) in the centre of Europe. This chapter introduces the notion of a key moment, and outlines the three elements guiding the book: people, or changing demographic profiles; place, or the ways in which the size, shape, and principal functions of the city changed over time; and identity, or the ways in which Berliners and others imagined the city and constructed an ever-changing present in light of selected aspects of the past and contested aspirations for the future.
What causes demographic misperceptions of minority populations? We anticipate that the extent to which members of the majority group perceive the minority group as a threat shapes their estimation of minority group size. While existing research argues that demographic misperceptions of minority groups can lead to a sense of threat, we argue that the opposite relationship may exist—that threat also causes demographic misperception. We test our argument using an experiment embedded in a survey of Muslims in Indonesia. We manipulate perceived threat of Christians in Indonesia and then ask respondents to estimate the size of the Christian population. While Muslims generally overestimated the size of the Christian population, we find that Muslims who felt a greater sense of threat estimated the Christian population to be significantly larger at both the national and provincial levels. This finding provides new insights on the directionality of the relationship between the widely acknowledged connection between threat and demographic misperceptions.
Chapter 5 addresses a major demographic puzzle concerning thousands of New York slaves who seem to have gone missing in the transition from slavery to freedom, and the chapter questions how and if slaves were sold South. The keys to solving this puzzle include estimates of common death rates, census undercounting, changing gender ratios in the New York black population, and, most importantly, a proper interpretation of the 1799 emancipation law and its effects on how the children of slaves were counted in the census. Given an extensive analysis of census data, with various demographic techniques for understanding how populations change over time, I conclude that a large number of New York slaves (between 1,000 and 5,000) were sold South, but not likely as many as some previous historians have suggested. A disproportionate number of these sold slaves came from Long Island and Manhattan.
This paper investigates the effects of demographic shifts on labor productivity by leveraging variation in the age structure of Italian regions. These effects are analyzed along a first channel – the direct relation between population age and productivity – and a second channel capturing the productivity implications of a more or less dispersed age distribution. We propose an estimation framework that relates regional productivity to the entire age distribution of the working-age population and use instrumental variable techniques to address endogeneity issues. The estimates yield a hump-shaped age-productivity profile peaking between 35 and 40 years. We also document non-linear effects of regional age dispersion on productivity.
Original and deeply researched, this book provides a new interpretation of Dutch American slavery which challenges many of the traditional assumptions about slavery in New York. With an emphasis on demography and economics, Michael J. Douma shows that slavery in eighteenth-century New York was mostly rural, heavily Dutch, and generally profitable through the cultivation of wheat. Slavery in Dutch New York ultimately died a political death in the nineteenth century, while resistance from enslaved persons, and a gradual turn against slavery in society and in the courts, encouraged its destruction. This important study will reshape the historiography of slavery in the American North.
Elephants are a textbook example of slow-breeding megafauna, with extended periods of maternal investment and a long reproductive lifespan among both sexes. The unique reproductive physiology of females gives rise to the uniquely proboscidean phenomenon of “musth” among males, a rut-like breeding state. This chapter examines how female reproductive constraints and life histories impose constraints on males, who in turn must trade off the need to forage with the need to breed. These dueling motivational states give rise to tactics that vary at different life history stages. Tusks, another iconic feature of elephants, may be thought to offer competitive advantages, but the case is not so clear when one considers their liabilities. The chapter concludes by contrasting the demographic pressures on elephants due to habitat loss, conflict, and hunting, and the possible hidden costs that might influence the viability of elephant populations.
This chapter demonstrates the crucial role of geographic proximity in shaping agrarian and herding relations in the history of late Ottoman Kurdistan, including regional political economy, socioeconomic structures, and intercommunal relations. It argues that the region is marked by three distinct ecological zones, which differ from each other in terms of elevation, climate, vegetation, and both human and animal habitation. The chapter then shows the encroachment of the Ottoman state through the arrival of Tanzimat reforms and the multifaceted consequences this had in the region. Next, it illustrates a demographic portrait of the region, depicting how human beings brought different ecosystems into conversation with one another. It argues that pastoralism sustained the conversation between geographic zones into the nineteenth century, creating linkages and slippages between mountains, pastures, and plains, and defining the interaction between the three zones until these links began to weaken in the face of a series of environmental crises. The chapter concludes with a glimpse into five villages from different parts of the region.
For decades, researchers have tried to identify ecological and biological correlates of longevity, often using life expectancy and maximum lifespan as the gold standards. The recent increase in demographic data collected in non-model species has also led researchers to develop alternative metrics of longevity, especially in comparative analyses (e.g. 90% longevity). As a result, studies focused on longevity rely on heterogeneous statistical methodologies and use a variety of longevity metrics that are not always clearly defined. This lack of clarity has led to confusion in the interpretation of results and makes it difficult to compare results across studies. This chapter discusses the statistical interpretation of each metric and highlights potential biases associated with the missus of longevity metrics; conducts a systematic review of the various longevity metrics used across the scientific literature and analyses the content of scientific articles on longevity using topic modelling methodology; and illustrates, using two examples, the importance of selecting the appropriate metric based on the research question. Based on these insights, it provides a list of recommendations aimed at helping researchers to think carefully about the choice of metrics when studying longevity.
Humans live longer today than ever before. The remarkable rise in longevity occurred in a brief period of human history, roughly since the eighteenth century, and was driven by persistent efforts against epidemics, famines, health insecurity and chronic diseases. This chapter covers essential concepts regarding this extraordinary achievement for the human race, such as the demographic transition model, distinguishable from the earlier Neolithic demographic transition, which both led in their unique way to substantial alterations in the cause and age distribution of deaths. To account for the shift in disease patterns over time, the concept of epidemiological transition was originally proposed by Abdel Omran in the early 1970s and later evolved into broader conceptual frameworks, including the health transition. The chapter concludes by briefly addressing whether increased human longevity is matched by improved health and its future sustainability.
This chapter analyzes the major trends in late Ottoman Gaza’s economy, society, and geostrategic importance. It tackles the misconception that during this period Gaza was a city in “decline.” It discusses a wide range of topics such as the impact of early globalization and the change in the hajj pilgrimage route on the status of Gaza as a caravan city; the impact of the barley boom in the Northern Negev between 1890 and 1910 as a result of the growing demand of Britain’s beer industry on Gaza’s economy; the city’s lack of a proper port infrastructure and its implications; the Ottoman government state-building measures and division of the region’s administrative borders, the establishment of Beersheba to reduce Gaza’s influence on the Bedouins of the Negev, and the governmental development plans envisioned for the Gaza region; the extensive relationships between Gaza and Egypt, including the effects of the occupation of Egypt by Britain in 1882 and the creation of the administrate dividing line between Egypt and Palestine in 1906 on Gaza’s geostrategic importance. Finally, it explores whether the Young Turk Revolution of 1908 constituted a turning point in Gaza’s importance in the eyes of the central government and how it affected the city’s development.
Studies concerning twins with a sociological focus are scarce in Hungary as well as international research, although the number of twin births has increased dramatically worldwide. The raising and education of twins are tasks demanding special attention from both the family and institutions. In our study we examine these aspects, looking back from adulthood, using the narrow scope of the available data from research based on the ‘Hungarostudy 2021’ database (N total: 7000; n twins: 106). Our results, corresponding to the hypotheses of educational sociology, demonstrate how the relationships between family size and school career and increasing number of siblings reduces the chances of high educational attainment. A regression analysis confirmed that both the number of siblings and a later position in the birth order reduces the chance of obtaining a higher education. For the second child in a family, the chance of earning a university degree is reduced to to 0.743. The role of a large family concerning higher education showed a stronger relationship in the case of twins compared to nontwins. For twins, the sibling pattern has a decisive effect in educational attainment. Twins themselves have a 1.449 times higher chance of obtaining a higher education compared to nontwins (p = 0.101), and fraternal twins have half (0.517) the chance of obtaining a higher education compared to identical twins; but both results are not significant (p = 0.156).
Reintroduction includes the captive propagation and movement of extirpated animals or plants into areas of historical and native distribution. Many biotic or abiotic factors can affect a founder population when small numbers are released into unfamiliar novel environments, particularly at the early stage of reintroduction. The inclusion of behavioural and ecological components plays a crucial role in the decision-making process of endangered species conservation efforts such as reintroduction. Since the resident population of Oriental Storks Ciconia boyciana was locally extirpated in South Korea in 1971, its founders have been established through reintroduction since 2015. The aim of this study was to investigate the demography, habitat use, and movement patterns of stork founders using the first two-year demographic and tracking data. Stork founders maintained their population size, which slightly increased in the long term. The patterns of habitat use and movement depended on rice paddy fields for foraging and breeding along with mixed effects of breeding status and season. Considering ecological and life history-related perspectives, we also discuss the potential adaptiveness of founder Oriental Storks as a resident population in a novel environment in South Korea.
In this chapter we explore the textual and material evidence for the transformation of the city of Antioch in northern Syria from the seventh through ninth centuries. Through observations of the environmental shocks, including the Justinianic Plague, which first arrived in AD 542, as well as the effects of a series of major earthquakes, we assess demographic changes that likely accompanied these events. Following this, we explore some possible reconstruction of the population of Antioch and its hinterland. In the early medieval period, a reassessment of the material evidence, read together with descriptions from medieval texts, demonstrates that a level economic and social activity, probably significantly exceeding previous estimates, persisted through the ‘Dark Ages’ of the seventh-ninth centuries.
Chapter 2 focuses on establishing and motivating the empirical puzzle that motivates this study. I present descriptive data to document that reclassification is indeed taking place, and to lay to rest simple explanations that might account for this change. I then shift to motivate the puzzle theoretically. I situate these patterns against the well-established expectations of anthropological and sociological literatures, which emphasize how discrimination and stigmatization have long incentivized whitening, or at least lightening. Zooming out further, I situate these patterns historically, arguing that the recent reclassification reversal should be understood as simply the latest development in the evolution of racial subjectivity and state policy that has spanned three centuries in Brazil.
Political factions at Carthage cannot be identified beyond a simple polarity: supporters and opponents of Hannibal’s family, ‘Barcids’ and ‘anti-Barcids’. At Rome, the richer naming system has encouraged prosopographic studies, conjectures about political alliances based on kinship, marriage ties, and shared local origins. But more than temporary existence of such ‘groups’ is doubtful. It is also disputed whether Republican Rome was any sort of democracy: Polybius controversially claimed that tribunes of the plebs were there to do the people’s will. In the second Punic war, where we rely on Livy, elections do not look very democratic, but there is a special and temporary reason for this: demography. Casualties in the 218−216 disasters produced a top-heavy senate for years to come. The trials of the Scipios (180s) do not support the idea of groups but rather exemplify the ruling class’s concern to prevent ambitious individuals from upsetting a competitive equilibrium.