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There is existing evidence that many individuals have preferences regarding selection of numbers in lottery games. Lottery data indicate that the percentage of players who choose their numbers, instead of having numbers randomly assigned, varies widely by lottery game. Differences in number selection mechanisms between games and an expected return maximization motive only present for parimutuel games are both reasons that can explain the variation. Differences in the payoff distributions between lottery games could also be contributing to the observed variation, a novel proposition. An experiment is designed to control for differences in number selection mechanisms and remove the expected return maximization motive, to test for the presence of distribution-dependent number preferences. Results indicate that 40% to 50% of subjects may display such preferences. It is therefore possible that distribution-dependent number preferences contribute to the empirical variation in number selection percentages in lottery games.
We experimentally study how individuals strategically disclose multidimensional information to a Naive Bayes algorithm trained to guess their characteristics. Subjects’ objective is to minimize the algorithm’s accuracy in guessing a target characteristic. We vary what participants know about the algorithm’s functioning and how obvious are the correlations between the target and other characteristics. Optimal disclosure strategies rely on subjects identifying whether the combination of their characteristics is common or not. Information about the algorithm functioning makes subjects identify correlations they otherwise do not see but also overthink. Overall, this information decreases the frequency of optimal disclosure strategies.
We design an experiment to study the effect of asymmetry in the context of group lending with joint liability. The performance of group loan contracts crucially hinges on borrowers engaging in peer monitoring and the common practice is to offer participants of a group loan symmetric contract terms. Our experiment shows that asymmetric contracts, in which monitoring is a dominant strategy for one borrower, increase the monitoring rate, and thus the repayment rate, without leaving borrowers substantially worse off. In addition, asymmetric contracting also raises expected profits of the lending institution. Overall, our experiment reveals that asymmetric group loan contracts are worth considering as part of a policy to maintain both financial stability and higher lender profits.
This paper considers a stationary model of inventory management in a rich setting in which unsold units carry over, in contrast with the full depreciation of unsold units that is implemented in laboratory studies of the news vendor problem. The model permits an array of costs associated with restocking, understocking, depreciation, financing, and holding inventories. The extra dimensions make it possible to hold the optimal inventory constant, while adjusting parameters that change the frequency of stockouts and the risks associated with storage and depreciation. This framework facilitates an investigation of factors that influence the nature and severity of behavioral biases observed in simpler news vendor settings. Optimal inventory decisions are derived and tested with a laboratory experiment. We consider four main questions in the inventory literature: the “pull-to-center” effect, the “recency” effect, the effect of increased up-front costs, and the effect of risk aversion.
This paper analyzes individual behavior in multi-armed bandit problems. We use a between-subjects experiment to implement four bandit problems that vary based on the horizon (indefinite or finite) and the number of bandit arms (two or three). We analyze commonly suggested strategies and find that an overwhelming majority of subjects are best fit by either a probabilistic “win-stay lose-shift” strategy or reinforcement learning. However, we show that subjects violate the assumptions of the probabilistic win-stay lose-shift strategy as switching depends on more than the previous outcome. We design two new “biased” strategies that adapt either reinforcement learning or myopic quantal response by incorporating a bias toward choosing the previous arm. We find that a majority of subjects are best fit by one of these two strategies but also find heterogeneity in subjects’ best-fitting strategies. We show that the performance of our biased strategies is robust to adapting popular strategies from other literatures (e.g., EWA and I-SAW) and using different selection criteria. Additionally, we find that our biased strategies best fit a majority of subjects when analyzing a new treatment with a new set of subjects.
We design an experiment to study the implications of introducing position uncertainty in a social dilemma where eight players decide to contribute to a public good sequentially. Contributions are significantly higher when players make sequential decisions to contribute or not, are uncertain about their position in the sequence, and observe a sample of their predecessors’ choices compared to the simultaneous-move game. Yet, contribution rates remain invariant to the number of agents sampled. Consequently, contributions don’t unravel even with position certainty, and there is no incremental benefit of introducing position uncertainty, contrary to the theoretical prediction. Furthermore, controlling for the sum of contributions observed, individuals contribute less the later in the sequence they are.
In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in motivated memory as a psychological determinant of economic outcomes. According to motivated memory, people tend to better recall pleasant information because it serves their psychological needs. Another phenomenon, however, predicts the same pattern: According to mood congruence, pleasant information is easier to recall for individuals in nonnegative mood, regardless of any psychological needs. Since most people tend to have some need for self-esteem and to experience more positive than negative feelings during the day, the two phenomena predict similar outcomes in most ordinary situations, but not all. To test the predictive power of these two phenomena, we collect data from a laboratory experiment and from a nationally representative survey. We study how individuals in a temporarily induced negative mood (via a video clip) or those who report a low baseline mood (relative to the population) recall negative feedback. Our results meet the predictions of motivated memory: Individuals better recall positive than negative feedback, even when they are in negative mood. Motivated memory is not just a matter of mood.
Although compulsory insurance mitigates the negative externalities caused by uninsured individuals, it raises the issue of insurance crowding out prevention. However, at the theoretical level, compulsory insurance and self-insurance (preventive investments dedicated to loss reduction) are know to be substitutes for risk averters but complements for risk lovers. This paper aims to empirically test these opposite predictions through a laboratory experiment using a model-based design. Our experimental results confirm the theoretical predictions: compulsory insurance and self-insurance are complements for risk lovers and substitutes for risk averters. This study strongly supports public policies advocating mandatory insurance implementation as they enhance risk lovers’ self-insurance investments. Therefore, a risk management scheme combining voluntary top-up and compulsory partial insurance guarantees an optimal risk allocation for risk-averters and increases the investments in self-insurance for risk-lovers.
We present a simple and robustly incentive-compatible price list methodology to elicit quantiles of a subjective real-valued belief. These elicited quantiles can be employed to approximate a subject’s complete subjective distribution, and we establish that the distribution maximizing entropy while adhering to the elicited quantiles is piecewise linear. Using this approach, our methodology extends to estimating arbitrary unobserved attributes of the subjective distribution, such as mean and variance, which are otherwise challenging to elicit. We provide a proof-of-concept for our framework through an experiment involving the elicitation of participants’ beliefs regarding the mathematical abilities of their peers.
Amnon Rapoport made seminal contributions to research on investment decision-making and individual decision-making under risk. To build on his seminal work, this paper explores the impact of social influence on risk-taking. First, to build predictions for experimental testing, we modify a standard expected utility model by introducing a social norm variable. Using a standard 10-decision paired lottery choice task, we report the results from three experiments with different manipulations to test whether social influence information affects subjects’ own lottery choices. In Experiment 1, we find that participants are more likely to switch to choosing the risky option earlier if they are told that a large majority (>75%) of a large group (N = 100) of others have also chosen the risky option in the past. In Experiment 2, we find there is no effect if the social influence prompt is framed as a small group (N = 10) or the choice of one (N = 1) successful lottery participant, but there is an effect when participants are provided information about the consistently risky choices of one (N = 1) person in the past. In Experiment 3, using an in-person subject pool, we find some mixed effects on risk-taking when the social information is framed as a small group (N = 10) of peers (other students). Altogether, this paper demonstrates that social influence can impact risk-taking in line with a socially normed expected utility model.
This introduction presents the two-part Special Issue of honoring the life and work of Amnon Rapoport (1936–2022), a pioneering scholar whose six decades of research shaped experimental studies of interactive decision making. Rapoport’s hallmark was the interplay between formal game-theoretic modeling and rigorous laboratory testing, advancing understanding in coalition formation, social dilemmas, market entry, traffic networks, decision timing, resource dilemmas, behavioral operations, and methodological innovation. The 27 articles collected across the volumes revisit and extend these themes, offering fresh insights into how rationality assumptions succeed and fail in predicting human behavior. Together, the contributions reflect both continuity with Rapoport’s intellectual credo—“model first, test second, refine third”—and renewal through new methods and applications. Beyond scholarship, the issue pays tribute to Rapoport’s extraordinary role as a mentor and his enduring influence on the evolution of behavioral and experimental economics
Many societies allocate wealth and status through competitions. These competitions may be seen as unfair if the playing field is uneven or if the competitors are of unequal strength. We run two experiments to document the extent to which people are willing to compete against others in situations with varying fairness concerns. In a between-subject experiment, we show that people’s willingness to compete is largely unaffected by the impact their choice has on the payoff of an opponent, no matter whether the opponent had a choice about whether to compete or not. In a within-subject experiment, we show that most people are willing to compete against opponents who have been exogenously disadvantaged or are known to be weaker. People who choose competition against weak or disadvantaged opponents are also more willing to give themselves an advantage by sabotaging the performance of their opponent.
We report the results of an experiment on selective exposure to information. A decision maker interested in learning about an uncertain state of the world can acquire information from one of two sources that have opposite biases: when informed on the state, they report it truthfully; when uninformed, they report their favorite state. A Bayesian decision-maker is better off seeking confirmatory information unless the source biased against the prior is sufficiently more reliable. In line with the theory, subjects are more likely to seek confirmatory information when sources are symmetrically reliable. On the other hand, when sources are asymmetrically reliable, subjects are more likely to consult the more reliable source even when prior beliefs are strongly unbalanced and this source is less informative. Our experiment suggests that base rate neglect and simple heuristics (e.g., listen to the most reliable source) are important drivers of the endogenous acquisition of information.
We introduce the “Fork Game,” a graphical interface designed to elicit higher-order risk preferences. In this game, participants connect forked pipes to create a final structure. A ball is then dropped into the top opening of this structure and follows a downward path, randomly turning left or right at each forked joint. This construction is effectively isomorphic to the apportionment of binary-outcome lotteries, allowing participants to construct complex gambles. Furthermore, the game is easily comprehensible, highly modular, and provides a flexible means of assessing risk aversion, prudence, temperance, and even higher-order risk preferences.
We conduct an economic experiment to examine the causal impact of social ties on the preference for competition. Participants decide whether to engage in a competition or not. Across four treatments, potential competitors vary based on their relationship with the decision-maker: whether they had a conversation with the decision-maker prior to the competition, whether they are expected to chat after the competition, or both, or neither. We find that the process of chatting increases social closeness. This increase in social closeness tends to reduce the preference for competition when participants are expected to meet again after the competition. However, it does not change the likelihood of opting for competition if there is no prospect of further interaction. Through this experiment, we thus uncover previously unknown implications of managerial practices, such as team-building exercises and remote work options, that influence the formation of social ties.
In the presence of a default option, the optimal search rule for an agent with a reference-dependent utility and a search cost predicts: (i) the default increases the reservation utility due to the reference effect, leading to a better choice, and (ii) those with higher reservation utility will self-select into search and are more likely to find a superior option. Our experiments document the presence of both effects. Those who reject the default are likely to find higher-ranked options in their active search, supporting the self-selection effect. Even when the self-selection channel is shut down, the reference effect remains.
This paper is a single-project meta-analysis of four experiments that model charitable giving as individual contributions to a multiplicity of competing threshold public goods. We pool 17,136 observations at the individual level to summarize the project and investigate the role of learning, gender, and risk attitude, since the included studies are inconclusive in this regard. We find that equally effective coordination devices are the existence of a single contribution option that stands out on its merits, learning, and delegation as long as the intermediary is formally obliged to pass along a high enough percentage of the transferred resources. Women delegate less than men, and consequently prefer direct contributions. Risk tolerance increases overall donations but decreases individual earnings. We discuss possible implications of our findings.
Efficient coordination is a major source of efficiency gains. We study in an experimental coordination game with 727 children and teenagers, aged 9 to 18 years, the strategies played in pre-adulthood. In our one-shot, experimental coordination game, we vary the incentives for reaching the more efficient equilibrium and the number of subjects within a group. Looking at strategy choices dependent on age, we do not find robust age effects in the aggregate. Yet, we see that smaller group sizes and larger incentives increase the likelihood of choosing the efficient strategy. The larger strategic uncertainty in larger groups is obviously harmful for overall efficiency. Regarding incentives, we find that increasing the profits in the efficient equilibrium seems to work better than providing a cushion in case of miscoordination. Beliefs play an important role as well, as subjects are more likely to play the efficient strategy when they expect others to do so as well. Our results are robust to controlling for individual risk-, time-, and social preferences.
The money-burning game (MBG) is widely used to study anti-social or destructive behavior. We extend the design of the MBG to separate three motives that could lead subjects to burn their partner’s money – spite, reciprocity, and inequality aversion. We detect that reciprocity is the dominant reason: Most of our subjects would only burn their partner’s money if they believed that their partner would burn theirs. This finding has important implications for the interpretation of the behavior of the game.
Previous studies have shown that an oath can reduce lying in individual settings. Can it reduce lying in groups, a context where lying is more prevalent? Results from a lab experiment reveal that the impact depends on the incentive structures and procedures. A mandatory oath reduces lying when group members’ payoffs are independent, but only has a marginal effect when payoffs are dependent. Voluntary oath-taking enhances the effectiveness under both incentive structures by fostering intrinsic motivation to keep promises. The findings highlight the importance of peer effects and oath-taking procedures on the effectiveness of an oath in group settings.