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This chapter summarizes the main findings, arguments, and contributions of the book. It reviews the theoretical arguments and discusses promising avenues for further research on revolution and counterrevolution. Then it explains how the book’s findings speak to a number of scholarly and public debates. First, for scholars of violence and nonviolence, who have argued that unarmed civil resistance is more effective at toppling autocrats than armed conflict, the book raises questions about the tenacity of the regimes established through these nonviolent movements. Second, it speaks to scholarship on democratization, highlighting the important differences between transitions effected through elite pacts versus those brought about through revolutionary mobilization. Third, it offers lessons about how foreign powers can help or hinder the consolidation of new democracies. Next, the chapter discusses implications for Egypt and the broader Middle East, including the possibility that future revolutions might avoid the disappointing fates of the 2011 revolutions. The chapter ends by reflecting on what the book has to say about our current historical moment, when rising rates of counterrevolution appear to be only one manifestation of a broader resurgence of authoritarian populism and reactionary politics worldwide.
Chapter 1 introduces the main arguments, findings, and contributions of the book. Counterrevolution is a subject that has often been overlooked by scholars, even as counterrevolutions have been responsible for establishing some of history’s most brutal regimes, for cutting short experiments in democracy and radical change, and for perpetuating vicious cycles of conflict and instability. The chapter reveals some of the most important statistics from the book’s original dataset of counterrevolution worldwide. These statistics raise a number of puzzling questions, which motivate the theoretical argument about counterrevolutionary emergence and success. After previewing this argument, the chapter discusses the main contributions of the book, including to theories of revolution, democratization, and nonviolence; to ongoing debates about Egypt’s revolution and the failures of the 2011 Arab Spring; and to our understanding of the present-day resurgence of authoritarianism worldwide. It finishes by laying out the multi-method research strategy and providing an overview of the chapters to come.
The Chinese state has never granted businesses full autonomy, even amid efforts to establish market-supporting institutions. Instead, the state and its officials view business as primarily political actors, demanding political services from firms to advance political objectives. Politicizing Business demonstrates that the politicization of firms is rooted in authoritarianism, often harming business interests and undermining China's efforts to attract and retain investment. Explaining the seemingly arbitrary state takeover of sectors and firms, this book uncovers previously overlooked forms of politicization and demonstrates how politicizing business often creates conflicts between the state and firms, particularly private firms, leading to a state-dominated market in many sectors. Combining academic rigor with exceptionally rich data and analysis, including hundreds of in-depth interviews with government officials and business leaders, original datasets and case studies, Politicizing Business offers fresh insights into China's political economy model and explores what the Party-state demands from companies, how compliance is enforced, when and where firms are politicized, and its impact on China's development.
The Chinese government and its officials often demand political services from companies in China. Chapter 1 examines the phenomenon of politicizing business, its institutional origins, and its consequences. It introduces two political services that have largely gone unnoticed: political contributions to visibility projects and supplements to the authoritarian state for the purposes of societal control. The former advances the careers of authoritarian officials, while the latter helps the state maintain social stability. Some of these political services resemble bribes; others resemble regulations.
The chapter then traces the institutional origins of business politicization to the authoritarian mechanisms used to control both government officials and the general public. To maintain these mechanisms, the Chinese state has preserved its authority to politicize business and has never granted full autonomy to companies during China’s economic reforms. The outcome is the retreat of the market. Political services demanded by the state often place private firms at a disadvantage compared with state-owned enterprises (SOEs), altering the competitive landscape of entire sectors. Ultimately, the politicization of business is a key factor behind the inconsistency between China’s nominally promarket policies and its frequent, seemingly arbitrary, antimarket actions.
Juristocratic reckoning is observable not only “from below.” Collective struggles that employed law animated by the idea that the state should be a vehicle of social justice have provoked a reckoning “from above.” This chapter suggests three dynamics: namely, authoritarian legalism, the dispersion of law, and the tribunalization of law. They reflect differently on the reaction by states and powerful economic actors to what the editors of this volume call “legal apotheosis” but which we would rather refer to as “organic constitutionalism” (Schwöbel 2010). Within these three pathways the chapter observes an active diminishment of the already limited possibilities of law to be mobilized for social justice. In the first modality – the incremental implementation of authoritarian legalism in India – legal measures have been systematically introduced in recent years to “legalize” a dual-law situation long in the making. In a second step, the chapter outlines the dispersion of law in relation to the borders of Europe, where the access to the laws that would nominally regulate these borders (e.g., asylum law) is thwarted by the creation of new legal zones and jurisdictional responsibilities. Third, the chapter observes the tribunalization of law with relation to the regulation of global capitalism, where seemingly egalitarian procedures increase asymmetries and “singularize” injuries. Taken together, the three cases point toward the emergence of a constitutional order that is averse to political conflict being carried out through law. The pathways described in this chapter have hegemonic tendencies; they ensure that political orders are authoritatively institutionalized through law but cannot be contested through it anymore.
Why do some revolutions fail and succumb to counterrevolutions, whereas others go on to establish durable rule? Marshalling original data on counterrevolutions worldwide since 1900 and new evidence from the reversal of Egypt's 2011 revolution, Killian Clarke explains both why counterrevolutions emerge and when they are likely to succeed. He forwards a movement-centric argument that emphasizes the strategies revolutionary leaders embrace both during their opposition campaigns and after they seize power. Movements that wage violent resistance and espouse radical ideologies establish regimes that are very difficult to overthrow. By contrast, democratic revolutions like Egypt's are more vulnerable, though Clarke also identifies a path by which they too can avoid counterrevolution. By preserving their elite coalitions and broad popular support, these movements can return to mass mobilization to thwart counterrevolutionary threats. In an era of resurgent authoritarianism worldwide, Return of Tyranny sheds light on one particularly violent form of reactionary politics.
How can populist authoritarian incumbents justify remaining in power when the golden age they promised remains unrealized? We argue that audiovisual products such as videos are particularly suited to enlivening the histories that so many populists evoke in seeking to legitimize their rule. Political science’s traditional focus on speech-based legitimation, however, leaves audiovisual tools largely overlooked. The few studies that do engage these tools test for audience effects, but the content itself and the political strategies behind its curation and dissemination remain undertheorized. By adding an audiovisual lens to studies of authoritarian legitimation, we identify a regime durability strategy we term selective revivification. We specify the cognitive and affective characteristics of videos that quickly communicate information-dense, emotionally evocative messages, arguing that they engagingly distill specific historical elements to portray incumbent rule as not just legitimate but also necessary. In advancing our argument, we construct an original dataset of all existing narration-based YouTube videos shared by six regime institutions in Turkey from the establishment of YouTube in 2005 to 2022 (n = 134). We use quantitative analysis to identify when video usage emerges as a strategy, as well as patterns of dissemination and content elements. We then use intertextual analysis to extract common historical themes and production techniques. The audiovisual tools we specify and the selective revivification strategy they enable fill gaps in studies of authoritarian legitimation while adding to political scientists’ toolkits for wider inquiry.
Although the harm-reduction approach to policy is most familiar from debates over public health and drug abuse, it provides a perfectly general framework for thinking about normative aspects of policy in non-ideal contexts. This paper seeks to apply a generalized harm reduction approach to the problem of attitudinal racism. Psychological research suggests that racism is unlikely to be completely eradicated, as a result of which a zero-tolerance approach risks becoming both counterproductive and overly punitive. Harm reduction recommends minimization of prevalence with respect to the primary phenomenon combined with attenuation of impact for the ineliminable portion.
Autocrats frequently appeal to socially conservative values, but little is known about how or even whether such strategies are actually paying political dividends. To address important issues of causality, this study exploits Russian president Vladimir Putin’s 2020 bid to gain a popular mandate for contravening presidential term limits in part by bundling this constitutional change with a raft of amendments that would enshrine traditional morality (including heteronormativity and anti-secularism) in Russia’s basic law. Drawing on an original experiment-bearing survey of the Russian population, it finds that Putin’s appeal to these values generated substantial new support for Putin’s reform package, primarily from social conservatives who did not support him politically. These findings expand our understanding of authoritarian practices and policy making by revealing one way in which core political values are leveraged to facilitate autocracy-enabling institutional changes and potentially other ends that autocrats might pursue.
What are the consequences of selective emigration from a closed regime? To answer this question, I focus on socialist East Germany and leverage an emigration reform in 1983 that led to the departure of about 65,200 citizens. Analyzing panel data on criminal activity in a difference-in-differences framework, I demonstrate that emigration can be a double-edged sword in contexts where it is restricted. Emigration after the reform had benefits in the short run and came with an initial decline in crime. However, it created new challenges for the regime as time passed. Although the number of ordinary crimes remained lower, border-related political crimes rose sharply in later years. Analysis of emigration-related petitioning links this result to a rise in demand for emigration after the initial emigration wave. These findings highlight the complexities of managing migration flows in autocracies and reveal a key repercussion of using emigration as a safety valve.
This article examines the process of drafting the authoritarian Portuguese Constitution of 1933, which took place during the military regime. The aim is to identify the powers involved, their objectives and the strategies they developed, and to find insights that shed light on the adoption of constitutions by authoritarianisms. The results suggest that conflict between political forces is endemic to the constitutional process, and that those who hegemonise support and aim to demilitarise the system are able to impose the new constitution even without guaranteeing the existence of democratic political parties. There is also a promising point of analysis: the emergence of an authoritarian constitution is based on path dependence, ie, it has many links with the material constitutionalism that precedes it, where there are already normalised authoritarian elements.
This chapter turns to the relationship between the courts and the executive branch of government. The executive branch is ordinarily the most powerful branch of government, and when courts act to hold the executive to account, they are often at risk. The charged relationship between courts and the executive arises not only from the political tension that is generated by holding a powerful executive to account, but also from the different structural and functional characteristics of the executive and the judiciary. The chapter analyses these characteristics, noting that courts must act fairly and independently deciding the disputes that come before them and the executive must act to protect the state and its inhabitants and govern effectively. The chapter then illustrates the dynamic relationship between the courts and the executive by exploring three difficult contexts for that relationship: illiberalism and authoritarianism, emergencies and crises, and corruption by members of the executive branch.
In The Autocratic Voter, Natalie Wenzell Letsa explores the motivations behind why citizens in electoral autocracies choose to participate in politics and support political parties. With electoral autocracies becoming the most common type of regime in the modern world, Letsa challenges the dominant materialist framework for understanding political behavior and presents an alternative view of partisanship as a social identity. Her book argues that despite the irrationality and obstacles to participating in autocratic politics, people are socialized into becoming partisans by their partisan friends and family. This socialization process has a cascading effect that can either facilitate support for regime change and democracy or sustain the status quo. By delving into the social identity of partisanship, The Autocratic Voter offers a new perspective on political behavior in electoral autocracies that has the potential to shape the future of these regimes.
Hispanic Technocracy explores the emergence, zenith, and demise of a distinctive post-fascist school of thought that materialized as state ideology during the Cold War in three military regimes: Francisco Franco's Spain (1939–1975), Juan Carlos Onganía's Argentina (1966–1973), and Augusto Pinochet's Chile (1973–1988). In this intellectual and cultural history, Daniel Gunnar Kressel examines how Francoist Spain replaced its fascist ideology with an early neoliberal economic model. With the Catholic society Opus Dei at its helm amid its 'economic miracle' of the 1960s, it fostered a modernity that was 'European in the means' and 'Hispanic in the ends.' Kressel illuminates how a transatlantic network of ideologues championed this model in Latin America as an authoritarian state model that was better suited to their modernization process. In turn, he illustrates how Argentine and Chilean ideologues adapted the Francoist ideological toolkit to their political circumstances, thereby transcending the original model.
Chapter 10 concludes by summarizing the argument of the book, outlining the contributions and implications of the argument, discussing its limitations, and, finally, reflecting on the ability of the argument to extend beyond the narrow scope condition of electoral autocracies.
Chapter 2 lays out the theory of the book, providing a broad overview of political science’s extant understanding of partisanship across diverse fields of study. It lays out the theory in three parts. First, it creates a framework for understanding how opposition partisanship and ruling party partisanship are unique social identities in electoral autocracies. Citizens who identify as partisans hold specific political beliefs that are common across all electoral autocracies (but not democracies). Second, it argues that these identities are produced at a grassroots level through a process of political socialization that occurs between friends and within families. Finally, the third part of theory argues that partisan social networks are fundamentally rooted within the unique political geography of electoral autocracies and elucidates a framework for understanding this geography, as well as its broader effects on beliefs about democracy and political legitimacy in such regimes.
Chapter 3 presents the case of Cameroon, a long-standing electoral autocracy in Central Africa. It provides a political history of the country, focused on the foundation, organization, and operations of Cameroon’s many political parties. It also elucidates the nature of Cameroon’s political geography, concluding with a section on the ways in which Cameroon may or may not be considered a “typical” case of electoral authoritarianism.
Why do some citizens of electoral autocracies choose to support the ruling party while others support the opposition? Chapter 1 explains the puzzle of partisanship under dictatorship, presents existing theories to understand public opinion in such regimes, and briefly summarizes the argument of the book and the data and methods used to test it. It concludes by discussing what we gain by understanding partisanship as a social identity as opposed to a materialist response to regime strategies.
Propagandists discredit political ideas that rival their own. In China’s state-run media, one common technique is to place the phrase so-called, in English, or 所谓, in Chinese, before the idea to be discredited. In this research note we apply quantitative text analysis methods to over 45,000 Xinhua articles from 2003 to 2022 containing so-called or 所谓 to better understand the ideas the government wishes to discredit for different audiences. We find that perceived challenges to China’s sovereignty consistently draw usage of the term and that a theme of rising importance is political rivalry with the United States. When it comes to differences between internal and external propaganda, we find broad similarities, but differences in how the US is discredited and more emphasis on cooperation for foreign audiences. These findings inform scholarship on comparative authoritarian propaganda and Chinese propaganda specifically.
This chapter is a short intellectual biography focusing on my interest and engagement in questions of political legitimacy over the years. The chapter is organized into three parts. I begin by discussing how the issue of legitimacy has been one of my key intellectual concerns ever since I started to do research on politics, initially in the context of the study of political and legal regimes in Latin America (Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay). Next, I highlight my understanding of political legitimacy as a responsibility and what this means for the evaluation and judgment of politics. This understanding builds on one of my previous books, Legitimacy and Politics: A Contribution to the Study of Political Right and Political Responsibility. Finally, I focus on how, gradually, in particular in connection with my work with the United Nations (UN), I became interested in the question of political legitimacy at the international level.