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Using Sequences to Model Crises

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 November 2014

Gretchen Casper  and
Matthew Wilson
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Abstract

The logic of historical explanation obliges one to understand temporality asa moderator of various effects on political outcomes. Temporal problemsremain in the empirical analysis of political phenomena, however, especiallyas it pertains to categorical data and long-term time dependence. Manytheories in political science assert that sequencing matters or thatpolitical outcomes are path dependent, but they remain untested (orimproperly tested) assertions for which sequence analysis may be valuable.This article briefly reviews the disciplinary origins of sequence analysisand applies the method in order to understand bargaining between actorsduring national crises. Finally, it explores the robustness of a commonlyused sequence analysis metric. The ability to demonstrate and separatesequential effects from accumulative effects—made possible through sequenceanalysis—constitutes a major step in political science toward analyses thatare truly time sensitive.

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Original Articles
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Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 3 , Issue 2 , May 2015 , pp. 381 - 397
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Copyright © The European Political Science Association 2014 

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Footnotes

Gretchen Casper is Associate Professor of Political Science and AsianStudies, Pennsylvania State University, 315 Pond Lab, University Park,PA 16802-6202 USA (email: gcasper@psu.edu). Matthew Wilson is a Ph.D. candidate inPolitical Science, Pennsylvania State University. He is currently avisiting scholar at Vanderbilt University, Commons Center PMB 0505,230 Appleton Place, Nashville, TN 37203-5721 USA (email: mcw215@psu.edu. The authors would liketo thank Philippe Blanchard, Phil Schrodt and Emily Helms for theirassistance. To view supplementary material for this article, pleasevisit http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2014.27.

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