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TRACKING THE MUTANT: FORECASTING AND NOWCASTING COVID-19 IN THE UK IN 2021

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 June 2021

Andrew Harvey ,
Paul Kattuman Open the ORCID record for Paul Kattuman [Opens in a new window]  and
Craig Thamotheram
Andrew Harvey
Affiliation:
Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Paul Kattuman*
Affiliation:
Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Craig Thamotheram
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London, United Kingdom
*
*Corresponding author. Email: p.kattuman@jbs.cam.ac.uk
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Abstract

A new class of time series models is used to track the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in early 2021. Models are fitted to England and the regions, as well as to the UK as a whole. The growth rate of the daily number of cases and the instantaneous reproduction number are computed regularly and compared with those produced by SAGE. The results from figures published each day are compared with results based on figures by specimen date, which may be more accurate but are subject to substantial revisions. It is then shown how data from the two different sources can be combined in bivariate models.

Keywords

data revisionsepidemicKalman filterreproduction number (R)state-space modelC22C32

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 256: THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING , Spring 2021 , pp. 110 - 126
Copyright
© National Institute Economic Review, 2021

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