Hostname: page-component-7dd5485656-hw7sx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-10-25T11:35:50.590Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Do people really want to be informed? Ex-ante evaluations of information-campaign effectiveness

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2025

Romain Espinosa Open the ORCID record for Romain Espinosa [Opens in a new window]  and
Jan Stoop
Romain Espinosa*
Affiliation:
CNRS, CREM - Université de Rennes 1, Rennes, France Rennes School of Business, Rennes, France
Jan Stoop
Affiliation:
Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam, Netherlands
*
romain.espinosa@univ-rennes1.fr
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We develop a method to assess population knowledge about any given topic. We define, and rationalize, types of beliefs that form the ‘knowledge spectrum’. Using a sample of over 7000 UK residents, we estimate these beliefs with respect to three topics: an animal-based diet, alcohol consumption and immigration. We construct an information-campaign effectiveness index (ICEI) that predicts the success of an information campaign. Information resistance is greatest for animal-based diets, and the ICEI is highest for immigration. We test the predictive power of our ICEI by simulating information campaigns, which produces supportive evidence. Our method can be used by any government or company that wants to explore the success of an information campaign.

Keywords

Information campaignsInformation resistanceExperimentDietAlcoholImmigrationKnowledge spectrum

JEL classification

D10: General C90: General C70: General D1: Household Behavior and Family Economics

Information

Type
Original Paper
Information
Experimental Economics , Volume 24 , Issue 4 , December 2021 , pp. 1131 - 1155
Copyright
Copyright © 2021 Economic Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

Footnotes

Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09692-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We would like to thank Georg Granic, Nicolas Treich, Andrew Clark, the editor and three anonymous referees for useful comments, as well as participants in various seminars (BETA Strasbourg, LESSAC Dijon, and CREM Rennes) and conferences (ASFEE 2019 Toulouse). We are also grateful to ERIM, NWO (Veni Grant 016.155.026, and Vidi Grant 195.061), ANR (Grant ANR-19-CE21-0005-01) for financial support.

References

Akerlof, GA, & Dickens, WT (1982). The economic consequences of cognitive dissonance. American Economic Review, 72(3), 307–319.Google Scholar
Aleksandrowicz, L, Green, R, Joy, EJ, Smith, P, & Haines, A (2016). The impacts of dietary change on greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use, and health: A systematic review. PloS one, 11(11), e0165797.10.1371/journal.pone.0165797CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Alesina, A., Miano, A., & Stantcheva, S. (2018). Immigration and redistribution. National Bureau of Economic Research: Technical report 24733. https://doi.org/10.3386/w24733.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, KB (2019). France’s yellow vests: A self-mobilised mass movement with insurrectionist overtones. Green Left Weekly, 1207, 1.Google Scholar
Andrews, DW (2000). Inconsistency of the bootstrap when a parameter is on the boundary of the parameter space. Econometrica, 68(2), 399–405.10.1111/1468-0262.00114CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Antoniou, C, Doukas, JA, & Subrahmanyam, A (2013). Cognitive dissonance, sentiment, and momentum. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 48(1), 245–275.10.1017/S0022109012000592CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aune, D, Ursin, G, & Veierød, M (2009). Meat consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies. Diabetologia, 52(11), 2277–2287.10.1007/s00125-009-1481-xCrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bem, DJ (1967). Self-perception: An alternative interpretation of cognitive dissonance phenomena. Psychological Review, 74(3), 183.10.1037/h0024835CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bénabou, R, & Tirole, J (2002). Self-confidence and personal motivation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(3), 871–915.10.1162/003355302760193913CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benabou, R, & Tirole, J (2006). Belief in a just world and redistributive politics. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(2), 699–746.10.1162/qjec.2006.121.2.699CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berners-Lee, M, Hoolohan, C, Cammack, H, & Hewitt, C (2012). The relative greenhouse gas impacts of realistic dietary choices. Energy Policy, 43, 184–190.10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.054CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bouchery, EE, Harwood, HJ, Sacks, JJ, Simon, CJ, & Brewer, RD (2011). Economic costs of excessive alcohol consumption in the US, 2006. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 41(5), 516–524.10.1016/j.amepre.2011.06.045CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Brehm, JW, & Cohen, AR (1962). Explorations in cognitive dissonance, NJ: Wiley.10.1037/11622-000CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bullock, JG, Gerber, AS, Hill, SJ, & Huber, GA (2015). Partisan bias in factual beliefs about politics. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 10, 519–578.10.1561/100.00014074CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Camerer, CF, & Hogarth, RM (1999). The effects of financial incentives in experiments: A review and capital-labor-production framework. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19(1–3), 7–42.10.1023/A:1007850605129CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caviola, L, Everett, JA, & Faber, NS (2019). The moral standing of animals: Towards a psychology of speciesism. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 116(6), 1011–1029.10.1037/pspp0000182CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chang, TY, Solomon, DH, & Westerfield, MM (2016). Looking for someone to blame: Delegation, cognitive dissonance, and the disposition effect. The Journal of Finance, 71(1), 267–302.10.1111/jofi.12311CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, PJ, & Moore, MJ (2002). The economics of alcohol abuse and alcohol-control policies. Health Affairs, 21(2), 120–133.10.1377/hlthaff.21.2.120CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cooper, J (2007). Cognitive dissonance: 50 years of a classic theory, US: Sage.10.4135/9781446214282CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Di Tella, R, Galiant, S, & Schargrodsky, E (2007). The formation of beliefs: Evidence from the allocation of land titles to squatters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(1), 209–241.10.1162/qjec.122.1.209CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dickinson, DL, & Oxoby, RJ (2011). Cognitive dissonance, pessimism, and behavioral spillover effects. Journal of Economic Psychology, 32(3), 295–306.10.1016/j.joep.2010.12.004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ehrich, KR, & Irwin, JR (2005). Willful ignorance in the request for product attribute information. Journal of Marketing Research, 42(3), 266–277.10.1509/jmkr.2005.42.3.266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elinder, M (2012). Correcting mistakes: Cognitive dissonance and political attitudes in Sweden and the United States. Public Choice, 153(1–2), 235–249.10.1007/s11127-011-9791-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elliot, AJ, & Devine, PG (1994). On the motivational nature of cognitive dissonance: Dissonance as psychological discomfort. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 382.10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.382CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elwood, PC, Pickering, JE, Givens, DI, & Gallacher, JE (2010). The consumption of milk and dairy foods and the incidence of vascular disease and diabetes: An overview of the evidence. Lipids, 45(10), 925–939.10.1007/s11745-010-3412-5CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Erb, K-H, Lauk, C, Kastner, T, Mayer, A, Theurl, MC, & Haberl, H (2016). Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation. Nature Communications, 7, 11382.10.1038/ncomms11382CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Espinosa, R (2019). L’éléphant dans la pièce. Revue d’Economie Politique, 129, 287–324.10.3917/redp.293.0287CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Facchini, G., Margalit, Y., & Nakata, H. (2016). Countering public opposition to immigration: The impact of information campaigns, CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP11709.Google Scholar
Fernbach, PM, Light, N, Scott, SE, Inbar, Y, & Rozin, P (2019). Extreme opponents of genetically modified foods know the least but think they know the most. Nature Human Behaviour, 3, 251–256.10.1038/s41562-018-0520-3CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Festinger, L (1962). A theory of cognitive dissonance, Redwood City: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Freddi, E. (2017). Do people avoid morally relevant information? Evidence from the refugee crisis. Center Discussion Paper Series No. 2017-034.10.2139/ssrn.3040531CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehrsitz, M. & Ungerer, M. (2017). Jobs, crime, and votes: a short-run evaluation of the refugee crisis in Germany. IZA Discussion Paper, (1094).10.2139/ssrn.2903116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goetzmann, WN, & Peles, N (1997). Cognitive dissonance and mutual fund investors. Journal of Financial Research, 20(2), 145–158.10.1111/j.1475-6803.1997.tb00241.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldsmith, AH, Sedo, S, Darity, W Jr, & Hamilton, D (2004). The labor supply consequences of perceptions of employer discrimination during search and on-the-job: Integrating neoclassical theory and cognitive dissonance. Journal of Economic Psychology, 25(1), 15–39.10.1016/S0167-4870(02)00210-6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Golman, R, Hagmann, D, & Loewenstein, G (2017). Information avoidance. Journal of Economic Literature, 55(1), 96–135.10.1257/jel.20151245CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graça, J, Calheiros, MM, & Oliveira, A (2016). Situating moral disengagement: Motivated reasoning in meat consumption and substitution. Personality and Individual Differences, 90, 353–364.10.1016/j.paid.2015.11.042CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grewenig, E, Lergetporer, P, Werner, K, & Smarzynska Javorcik, B (2020). Incentives, search engines, and the elicitation of subjective beliefs: Evidence from representative online survey experiments. Journal of Econometrics, 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.03.022Google Scholar
Griggs, I. (2018). UK government to run more than 140 campaigns in 2018/19. PR Week, https://www.prweek.com/article/1463220/uk–government–run–140–campaigns–2018–19.Google Scholar
Grigorieff, A., Roth, C., & Ubfal, D. (2018). Does information change attitudes towards immigrants? representative evidence from survey experiments. Representative Evidence from Survey Experiments (March 10, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2768187. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2768187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grossman, Z, & Van Der Weele, JJ (2017). Self-image and willful ignorance in social decisions. Journal of the European Economic Association, 15(1), 173–217.10.1093/jeea/jvw001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hestermann, N, Le Yaouanq, Y, & Treich, N (2018). An economic model of the meat paradox. European Economic Review, 129, 103569.10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103569CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ho, E., Hagmann, D., & Loewenstein, G. (2020). Measuring information preferences. Management Science (forthcoming).Google Scholar
Holmes, AJ, & Anderson, K (2017). Convergence in national alcohol consumption patterns: New global indicators. Journal of Wine Economics, 12(2), 117–148.10.1017/jwe.2017.15CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hu, FB, Rimm, EB, Stampfer, MJ, Ascherio, A, Spiegelman, D, & Willett, WC (2000). Prospective study of major dietary patterns and risk of coronary heart disease in men. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 72(4), 912–921.10.1093/ajcn/72.4.912CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Joy, M (2011). Why we love dogs, eat pigs, and wear cows: An introduction to carnism, US: Conari Press.Google Scholar
Konow, J (2000). Fair shares: Accountability and cognitive dissonance in allocation decisions. American Economic Review, 90(4), 1072–1091.10.1257/aer.90.4.1072CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Larsson, SC, & Orsini, N (2013). Red meat and processed meat consumption and all-cause mortality: A meta-analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology, 179(3), 282–289.10.1093/aje/kwt261CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Loughnan, S, Bastian, B, & Haslam, N (2014). The psychology of eating animals. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 23(2), 104–108.10.1177/0963721414525781CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mäkelä, K (1997). Drinking, the majority fallacy, cognitive dissonance and social pressure. Addiction, 92(6), 729–736.10.1111/j.1360-0443.1997.tb02939.xCrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Matthey, A, & Regner, T (2011). Do I really want to know? a cognitive dissonance-based explanation of other-regarding behavior. Games, 2(1), 114–135.10.3390/g2010114CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McNally, AM, Palfai, TP, & Kahler, CW (2005). Motivational interventions for heavy drinking college students: Examining the role of discrepancy-related psychological processes. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 19(1), 79.10.1037/0893-164X.19.1.79CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Micha, R, Michas, G, & Mozaffarian, D (2012). Unprocessed red and processed meats and risk of coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes-an updated review of the evidence. Current Atherosclerosis Reports, 14(6), 515–524.10.1007/s11883-012-0282-8CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Morris, J. (2019). Count 14. Alcohol Policy UK: NHS Scotland campaign and debate on the future of alcohol guidelines. https://www.alcoholpolicy.net/alcohol_campaigns/.Google Scholar
Nyborg, K (2011). I don’t want to hear about it: Rational ignorance among duty-oriented consumers. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 79(3), 263–274.10.1016/j.jebo.2011.02.004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orlich, MJ, Singh, PN, Sabaté, J, Jaceldo-Siegl, K, Fan, J, Knutsen, S, Beeson, WL, & Fraser, GE (2013). Vegetarian dietary patterns and mortality in adventist health study 2. JAMA Internal Medicine, 173(13), 1230–1238.10.1001/jamainternmed.2013.6473CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Oxoby, RJ (2004). Cognitive dissonance, status and growth of the underclass. Economic Journal, 114(498), 727–749.10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00241.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pan, A, Sun, Q, Bernstein, AM, Schulze, MB, Manson, JE, Stampfer, MJ, Willett, WC, & Hu, FB (2012). Red meat consumption and mortality: Results from 2 prospective cohort studies. Archives of Internal Medicine, 172(7), 555–563.Google ScholarPubMed
Pan, A, Sun, Q, Bernstein, AM, Schulze, MB, Manson, JE, Willett, WC, & Hu, FB (2011). Red meat consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes: 3 cohorts of us adults and an updated meta-analysis. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 94(4), 1088–1096.10.3945/ajcn.111.018978CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piazza, J, & Loughnan, S (2016). When meat gets personal, animals’ minds matter less: Motivated use of intelligence information in judgments of moral standing. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 7(8), 867–874.10.1177/1948550616660159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piazza, J, Ruby, MB, Loughnan, S, Luong, M, Kulik, J, Watkins, HM, & Seigerman, M (2015). Rationalizing meat consumption. the 4Ns. Appetite, 91, 114–128.10.1016/j.appet.2015.04.011CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Prior, M, Sood, G, Khanna, K et al., (2015). You cannot be serious: The impact of accuracy incentives on partisan bias in reports of economic perceptions. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 10(4), 489–518.10.1561/100.00014127CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quarterly, F (2016). Quarter 4, october-december 2015, Warszawa: Frontex.Google Scholar
Rabin, M (1994). Cognitive dissonance and social change. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 23(2), 177–194.10.1016/0167-2681(94)90066-3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reynolds, J. (2014). Government Ad spend to increase by 22 percent to almost £300m. the Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/may/14/governemnet–ad–spend–deficit–scottish–referendum–afghanistan.Google Scholar
Rothgerber, H (2014). Efforts to overcome vegetarian-induced dissonance among meat eaters. Appetite, 79, 32–41.10.1016/j.appet.2014.04.003CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schulze, MB, Hoffmann, K, Manson, JE, Willett, WC, Meigs, JB, Weikert, C, Heidemann, C, Colditz, GA, & Hu, FB (2005). Dietary pattern, inflammation, and incidence of type 2 diabetes in women. The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 82(3), 675–684.10.1093/ajcn/82.3.675CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sekeris, P. & Vasilakis, C. (2016). The Mediterranean refugees crisis and extreme right parties: Evidence from Greece. MPRA paper 72222.Google Scholar
Serra-Garcia, M., & Szech, N. (2019). The (in) elasticity of moral ignorance. CESifo Working Paper No. 7555.10.2139/ssrn.3357132CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sinha, R, Cross, AJ, Graubard, BI, Leitzmann, MF, & Schatzkin, A (2009). Meat intake and mortality: A prospective study of over half a million people. Archives of Internal Medicine, 169(6), 562–571.10.1001/archinternmed.2009.6CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Song, Y, Manson, JE, Buring, JE, & Liu, S (2004). A prospective study of red meat consumption and type 2 diabetes in middle-aged and elderly women: The women’s health study. Diabetes Care, 27(9), 2108–2115.10.2337/diacare.27.9.2108CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Springmann, M, Godfray, HCJ, Rayner, M, & Scarborough, P (2016). Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(15), 4146–4151.10.1073/pnas.1523119113CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Steele, CM, Southwick, LL, & Critchlow, B (1981). Dissonance and alcohol: Drinking your troubles away. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 41(5), 831.10.1037/0022-3514.41.5.831CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Steinmayr, A. (2016). Exposure to refugees and voting for the far-right:(unexpected) results from Austria. IZA Discussion Paper No. 9790.10.2139/ssrn.2750273CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tilman, D, & Clark, M (2014). Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health. Nature, 515(7528), 518.10.1038/nature13959CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
WHO. (2018). Global status report on alcohol and health 2018.Google Scholar
Zimmermann, F (2019). The dynamics of motivated beliefs. American Economic Review, 110, 337–361.10.1257/aer.20180728CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Espinosa and Stoop supplementary material

EXEX Online Appendix for Do People Really Want to Be Informed?
Download Espinosa and Stoop supplementary material(File)
File 4.4 MB