In the fourteenth century, the Black Death killed as much as two thirds of Europe's population; in the fifteenth, the introduction of moveable-type printing rapidly expanded Europe's supply of human capital; between 1850 and 1914, Russia's population almost tripled; and in World War I, the British blockade starved some 800,000 Germans. Each of these, Shocking Contrasts argues, amounted to an unanticipated shock, positive or negative, to the supply of a crucial factor of production; and elicited one of four main responses: factor substitution; factor movement to a different sector or region; technological innovation; or political action, sometimes extending to coercion at home or conquest abroad. This book examines parsimonious models of factor returns, relative costs, and technological innovation. It offers a framework for understanding the role of supply shocks in major political conflicts and argues that its implications extend far beyond these specific cases to any period of human history.

‘From the pandemic-induced shocks to the labor supply, to electoral support for right-wing populists, to war-related malnutrition, this historical work seems ‘ripped from the headlines.’ In fact, it is the culmination of an idea the author advanced decades ago in Commerce and Coalitions. In demonstrating how political action can be understood as one possible response to economic shocks, Rogowski has, once again, provided the closest thing political economy has to a unifying theory.’

William Roberts Clark - Texas A&M University

‘As the world reels from crippling supply shocks, this book could not be more timely. In it, Rogowski explores how unforeseen events can cause sudden and significant disruptions to economic and political life … a must-read for anyone seeking a better understanding of the complex dynamics of supply shocks and their impacts on society.’

Stephanie Rickard - London School of Economics

‘Ranging from the Black Death to World War One, with many stops in between, Rogowski analyzes how major events worked their way through economics and politics. Full of important lessons for a world newly sensitive to the importance of reliable sources of supply, Shocking Contrasts will be read with great benefit by anyone interested in the interaction of technology, the economy, and politics in modern societies.’

Jeffry Frieden - Harvard University